blizzardmeiser Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Sounds like the 'Noles during the UGA-FSU game from this weekend! so we will at least get on the scoreboard.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: What sucked me in this time was that more than one global had a decent storm for multiple runs. I guess the globals just can't be relied on outside a few days as some of the experts pointed out. it was on the globals... it was on the ens... we flagged this period around Christmas... Possibly losing this one blows and idrc what the people who pretend to come on this forum with zero emotions til the day of think. I don't believe them, quite frankly It's humbling to know we can (potentially) still lose it all in the MR. In theory one would like to think that means we could stumble into a great storm (Jan 2022?) in the mid-range too. Also nice to know that the models def don't have it all figured out... that's the eventual death of this hobby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Heisy said: If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. . Why wait bro? Come on in... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Annnnnd…we’re back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Winter is over here in Richmond (I’ll be saying it’s back next week). Glad I get to spend it in the mountains learning about winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 52 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Winter is over here in Richmond (I’ll be saying it’s back next week). Glad I get to spend it in the mountains learning about winter. Big move SE at 18z…who knows what could happen. Maybe it gets better especially west of RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Enjoy the digital blue opium for the next 40 minutes before Euro shats on the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Good lord.. I get it’s a “storm thread” but man have we gotten strict about what you can and can’t post in there.. half of the pages comments on one page were deleted and I felt like I kept it on topic. I get along well with almost everyone I speak to generally speaking. Seems a bit harsh.. rant over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I actually didn't like the 18z run even with the output. The H5 setup looks sketchy, to say the least. Really gonna need the cad to do its thing...which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: I actually didn't like the 18z run even with the output. The H5 setup looks sketchy, to say the least. Really gonna need the cad to do its thing...which is possible. I felt like if the track can materialize the way 18z gfs depicted we stand a decent chance in favored areas to get a front end thump accomplished. Really like the fact that it’s starting to back away from the Ohio valley death blow that would flood all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Enjoy the digital blue opium for the next 40 minutes before Euro shats on the party. Euro savin us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Euro savin us! With how this is evolving, no one should be writing this off IMO, especially along/west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I felt like if the track can materialize the way 18z gfs depicted we stand a decent chance in favored areas to get a front end thump accomplished. Really like the fact that it’s starting to back away from the Ohio valley death blow that would flood all levels. Yea, it looks like a classic overrunning event, but that 540 line is up there, no? Maybe I'm underestimating the amount of caa in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, nj2va said: With how this is evolving, no one should be writing this off IMO, especially along/west of 95. Yep. Look at PA. The snow totals collapsed SE like a soufflé. That said, it’s just not cold. So if I were to get 2 inches it would surprise me. Unless there are silly changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yeah along and west of the I95, probably will get a good deal of snow, west of I 81 may get well over a foot. Also well north. Maryland central/west areas should get shellacked fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, BristowWx said: Yep. Look at PA. The snow totals collapsed SE like a soufflé. That said, it’s just not cold. So if I were to get 2 inches it would surprise me. Unless there are silly changes. This. Genuine sig material. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea, it looks like a classic overrunning event, but that 540 line is up there, no? Maybe I'm underestimating the amount of caa in place. I thought the 534 line was up near Detroit. Will have to look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, BristowWx said: Yep. Look at PA. The snow totals collapsed SE like a soufflé. That said, it’s just not cold. So if I were to get 2 inches it would surprise me. Unless there are silly changes. Yeah, I think being realistic with the airmass, setup, and your backyard climo is good to tame expectations. I could very well envision I’m getting snow TV, some grassy accumulation, while even NW Arlington and Falls Church (west of the fall line) is getting a slushy 2”. It has that classic fall line look to it. But lots of time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea, it looks like a classic overrunning event, but that 540 line is up there, no? Maybe I'm underestimating the amount of caa in place. I feel like gfs can have a tendency to “under-do-it” in these type of scenarios however if the HP ends up sliding east too quickly we could have some problems. I’m honestly so starved for winter precip I don’t care at this point if I get a 3” sleet bomb. Anything will do I’m not going to be picky when it’s been forever since we got something other than a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 No more debbing for me, I am a true Believer. Just wow at the N HEM setup!!!!!!!!!! I dont know how to post those maps, but what has been mentioned by highly skilled hobbyists and Mets, is just beyond imagination for this year! We are going to get a ton of enthusiastic model watching this winter! You better stock up on whatever you use to stay awake! If I were in north Virginia, I'd head up into the western Maryland highlands. No two effin' ways about it up there, way north and west and massive orographical forcing will ensure they get buried alive by torrential snows! You be up there, you better get a Palisades-Grade plow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I thought the 534 line was up near Detroit. Will have to look again. 540 line at height is in far far nw VA but 2m has cad all the way down closer my way so if anything I think someone can score a decent storm. Holding out hope euro looks good. I may stand corrected but I could’ve swore some time back euro was updated to better predict cad. May have dreamed that but I thought I read it at one point or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 540 line at height is in far far nw VA but 2m has cad all the way down closer my way so if anything I think someone can score a decent storm. Holding out hope euro looks good. I may stand corrected but I could’ve swore some time back euro was updated to better predict cad. May have dreamed that but I thought I read it at one point or another. Yeah also I think the NAM 3k is good for CAD real close in like 24 hours. I’ve given up the idea of being north of the 540. 534 would be money but that’s not the cards we were dealt. Honestly I could see both upside surprise or total fail at my location. I have no margin. All I have is being left of the fall line. Essentially a pair of 3s. Gotta make that win somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Yeah also I think the NAM 3k is good for CAD real close in like 24 hours. I’ve given up the idea of being north of the 540. 534 would be money but that’s not the cards we were dealt. Honestly I could see both upside surprise or total fail at my location. I have no margin. All I have is being left of the fall line. Essentially a pair of 3s. Gotta make that win somehow. Oh for sure.. just a good distance out of range still as you well know but should get some inkling of an idea as to how much cad will be available maybe tomorrow this time. I’m almost wondering if the high won’t feel as forced to exit stage right if it’s not feeling the effects of the primary low driving into the OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keviepoo Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Would someone post a Euro please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It’s only out to hour 27 on WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Oh for sure.. just a good distance out of range still as you well know but should get some inkling of an idea as to how much cad will be available maybe tomorrow this time. I’m almost wondering if the high won’t feel as forced to exit stage right if it’s not feeling the effects of the primary low driving into the OH valley. It’s a nail biter. I mean we came back from the brink of total fail. Anything positive in the 18z euro will be welcomed. But the euro can a harsh beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 42 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s only out to hour 27 on WxBell Didn’t see much direction on euro other than not bleeding more. A pure coastal in January that can’t deliver still makes me sad. But there is virtually no snow cover north of us so any high can’t be too cold. If New England was snow covered I think the high could have been colder. Couple degrees would have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Is there anything we can do on the ground level to make it go away? Get people to point their fans to the sky? Nuke the vort? I’m open to ideas Keep Randy in Mexico. That's our only hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Watch the 12z guidance absolutely shit the bed today. [mention=51]WxUSAF[/mention] wouldn't be safe anywhere.Hi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 https://x.com/AtlanticWx/status/1742383118823178693?s=20 At least some positives have come out of climate change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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