December 2023

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A week out …that will change too. 

Doesn’t look like it no 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Should have been more clear, I meant the intensity, and high wind aspect. I’ll sell that here for now.  The cutter I agree with. 

Oh, yea...I always ignore that where I am, which I know will be confusing for some.

[bwt3650]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the cutter is very likely happening around Dec 10....beyond that is somewhat uncertain. Not a good pattern but not a total hopeless one either.

Still looking good on extended guidance for late month....we'll see how that pans out, but it's kind of remarkable how consistent the weeklies and other longer range guidance have been about flipping to a much more favorable pattern in late Dec and then as we head into January. IT is likely due to very good agreement on all that guidance of the MJO heading into phase 8 by roughly 12/20-12/22.

What's the lag time when the mjo moves into those phases?  My understanding is 8-1-2, the higher the amplitude, the better?  So once we see it enter phase 8, is that a cold loading, or change in heights near Alaska?  No way to sugar coat days 5-15 even in NNE.  It looks like Torch Tigers wet dream.  Maybe the resorts sneak a couple cheap snows, but looks pretty warm.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a strong wave as modeled near the dateline mid month. It also feels like the ensembles are showing signs of shuffling a bit near the 20th. It's not a 2015 look going forward, but probably same areas favored that are getting snow currently. 

So congrats ski areas and far NNE. Great !

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So congrats ski areas and far NNE. Great !

No changes

[bwt3650]

Just now, powderfreak said:

3.5” on 1” Water at home.

Mountain 8-10” snow.

Just another crushing blue bomb.

Might have done a little better than up here.  Looks like about 6" of paste at 1850'...Mountain is claiming 7-9 up high.  Could score a bit more into today though as temps drop.  Vermont better light it up the next three days on these optimal temps with the way next week looks.

[bwt3650]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

So congrats ski areas and far NNE. Great !

Thanks!

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't get the reluctance of some to buy into this...must be just mild winter PTSD. But I know if had that kind of consistent, strong consensus for a crap pattern, the skepticism would be met with buns.

I think it's more of the pushing back vs whether it will happen or not. It's in my mind that it could suck through Christmas. Hoping for some turnaround prior.

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't get the reluctance of some to buy into this...must be just mild winter PTSD. But I know if had that kind of consistent, strong consensus for a crap pattern, the skepticism would be met with buns.

the ptsd was well earned for many as spectacular patterns kept appearing and then slowly eroding away.  No change.  Not that it was bad up here though, but was for most south of CON.  But perhaps the consistency of the later Dec signal and its connection to a likely Phase 8 makes it a more believable outcome?

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Might have done a little better than up here.  Looks like about 6" of paste at 1850'...Mountain is claiming 7-9 up high.  Could score a bit more into today though as temps drop.  Vermont better light it up the next three days on these optimal temps with the way next week looks.

Patrols opening everything.  Upper Starr on December 4th?  Whole shooting match is open lol.  Place is caked with cement.  Upper half heaven, lower half hell.  Like Sierra style.

[mahk_webstah]

56 minutes ago, Layman said:

Dec 3:  Dropped to a low of 35.2 with 0.85" of rain

Dec 4:  Low of 32.7 and 0.18" of rain as of 8:15am

My brother in Wolfeboro at 800' ASL has about 2" of wet compacted snow.

Sister in Farmington NH also has about 2" but I'm not sure of her exact elevation compared to the other Farmington posters here.  She's not on the ridge and maybe at 400' ASL.

about 3.5 here with bending birches at 650" in Boscawen NH

[tamarack]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

You didn't get anything in the Dec 2020 storm?

If not, he was about the only one.  PVD had only 7.9" but BDL/BOX/ORH had 11.5 to 12.5.

[dendrite]

A glorified coating in CON. lol

[bwt3650]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Patrols opening everything.  Upper Starr on December 4th?  Whole shooting match is open lol.  Place is caked with cement.  Upper half heaven, lower half hell.  Like Sierra style.

Wow...Great week for you.  I'm not back up til Thursday, but I would sneak down there just to hit Upper Starr and Tres if I was.

[dryslot]

Looks to be some in here ready for an early melt.

[tamarack]

So far, Franklin County is the winner, just like the mid-Dec dump last year.  I don't mind a bit being the county's last place.

12/4/2023	7:00 AM	ME-FR-23	Farmington 4.2 NW	NA	11.0 NA NA	NA NA NA	ME	Franklin		Active | Static
12/4/2023	7:00 AM	ME-FR-2	Temple 1.8 W	1.15	10.5 1.02 10.3 : 1	12.0 NA NA	ME	Franklin		Active | Static
12/4/2023	8:00 AM	ME-FR-26	Farmington 3.9 N	0.92	10.5 0.92 11.4 : 1	10.5 0.92 9 %	ME	Franklin		Active | Static
12/4/2023	7:00 AM	ME-FR-4	New Sharon 2.0 NW	0.84	9.2 0.84 11 : 1	9.0 0.84 9 %	ME	Franklin		Active | Static
12/4/2023	7:00 AM	ME-SM-4	Solon 3.9 ESE	0.54	9.0 0.54 16.7 : 1	NA NA NA	ME	Somerset		Active | Static
12/4/2023	7:00 AM	ME-KB-53	Readfield 2.0 NNE	0.62	8.0 NA NA	8.0 NA NA	ME	Kennebec		Active | Static
12/4/2023	7:00 AM	ME-KB-55	Manchester 0.5 NE	0.95	8.0 0.95 8.4 : 1	8.0 NA NA	ME	Kennebec		Active | Static

[wxeyeNH]

31.3F Very light snow     7.25"  Neighbor at 1500 feet 9"  Low temp last night during storm 29.7F  Most of night was 30 to 31.5F

[dendrite]

Nice Gene!

[dryslot]

Looks good for now, 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a strong wave as modeled near the dateline mid month. It also feels like the ensembles are showing signs of shuffling a bit near the 20th. It's not a 2015 look going forward, but probably same areas favored that are getting snow currently. 

Xmas onward is fair game IMO., but def better toward the New Year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

the ptsd was well earned for many as spectacular patterns kept appearing and then slowly eroding away.  No change.  Not that it was bad up here though, but was for most south of CON.  But perhaps the consistency of the later Dec signal and its connection to a likely Phase 8 makes it a more believable outcome?

Point being someone who can no longer be objective probably needs a break

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

31.3F Very light snow     7.25"  Neighbor at 1500 feet 9"  Low temp last night during storm 29.7F  Most of night was 30 to 31.5F

 

Beautiful!  With the temps this week will be a great winter scene up there.  Probably down here too if we don't get much melting this afternoon.

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't get the reluctance of some to buy into this...must be just mild winter PTSD. But I know if had that kind of consistent, strong consensus for a crap pattern, the skepticism would be met with buns.

Yep. if the guidance was unanimous for warmth late month, you'd see hundreds of posts locking it in as definitely going to happen.....good sign that you've lost objectivity when that happens.

It's fine to be skeptical, but it should be done both directions and using solid evidence. The reason for the milder outcome in mid-December versus a week or two ago on guidance is the MJO wave strongly progressing into phases 5/6 whereas previously it was dying back into the COD by phase 4. But the flip side of that coin is that we're likely to see phase 8 by 12/20ish, so better outcomes won't be too long after that.

The bigger question going forward is how static is the forcing in the 8/1/2 region after that? Do we sort of get a standing wave there for a while to really rack up chances? Or does it cycle through within a couple weeks and we get another thaw mid-January....both are possibilities.

[weatherwiz]

As optimistic as I am about January and February, if this becomes a situation where we have to rely on the MJO to get into more favorable phases and become fixated there for a bit...I'm going to start to worry some. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. if the guidance was unanimous for warmth late month, you'd see hundreds of posts locking it in as definitely going to happen.....good sign that you've lost objectivity when that happens.

It's fine to be skeptical, but it should be done both directions and using solid evidence. The reason for the milder outcome in mid-December versus a week or two ago on guidance is the MJO wave strongly progressing into phases 5/6 whereas previously it was dying back into the COD by phase 4. But the flip side of that coin is that we're likely to see phase 8 by 12/20ish, so better outcomes won't be too long after that.

The bigger question going forward is how static is the forcing in the 8/1/2 region after that? Do we sort of get a standing wave there for a while to really rack up chances? Or does it cycle through within a couple weeks and we get another thaw mid-January....both are possibilities.

This actually better aligns with my preseason thoughts.....I was a bit worried that it could be a little colder than I had thought...could end up warmer by a bit...I had +1-3.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As optimistic as I am about January and February, if this becomes a situation where we have to rely on the MJO to get into more favorable phases and become fixated there for a bit...I'm going to start to worry some. 

Well, the disturbed PV idea isn't going away IMO.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the disturbed PV idea isn't going away IMO.

Nope and that's what I'm hold out hope on. Ultimately, I don't think we really need the MJO to get into more favorable phases. I would probably rather the MJO just kind of peter out all together and become a weak signal. But seeing how right now much is relied on tropical forcing...it's really anyone's guess on how everything progresses during the second half of the month. Models still struggle mightily with MJO waves/tropical forcing. If we can get these changes to start showing face on short-term guidance (inside 72 hours) we may have something. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nope and that's what I'm hold out hope on. Ultimately, I don't think we really need the MJO to get into more favorable phases. I would probably rather the MJO just kind of peter out all together and become a weak signal. But seeing how right now much is relied on tropical forcing...it's really anyone's guess on how everything progresses during the second half of the month. Models still struggle mightily with MJO waves/tropical forcing. If we can get these changes to start showing face on short-term guidance (inside 72 hours) we may have something. 

This is where you just need to default to the seasonal research allow guidance to ultimately confirm....or in the case of last January, deny lol

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is where you just need to default to the seasonal research allow guidance to ultimately confirm....or in the case of last January, deny lol

I'm hoping to spend more time digging into the MJO. I'm pretty happy with the progression I've made this past year with digging into seasonal forecasting but one area I haven't had the opportunity to dig into yet is the MJO. I was starting to question myself a few weeks ago (and then got COVID so last week was a drag just to work) about how I thought tropical forcing west of the dateline was good for us (that's what my composites seemed to elicit) but if this is where MJO phases are warmer for us then something must be off with what I was doing. 

[NW_of_GYX]

35 degrees, light snow. 5.5” storm total. Big paster here, there are some localized power issues as well