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Winter 2023-24 Longrange Discussion


michsnowfreak
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9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Hard to argue with that when this #NotAWeatherGirl is swimming in Wisconsin in October.

 

We should let everyone that does the extremely hard work of putting togethet a winter forecast know that as long as this person is in their pool in October the temps the following winter will be mild. Throw everything else you thought you knew about seasonal forecasting out the window. 

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4 hours ago, roardog said:

We should let everyone that does the extremely hard work of putting togethet a winter forecast know that as long as this person is in their pool in October the temps the following winter will be mild. Throw everything else you thought you knew about seasonal forecasting out the window. 

People were swimming in October in 2007 as well, I am sure everyone here would take that winter in a heartbeat.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

People were swimming in October in 2007 as well, I am sure everyone here would take that winter in a heartbeat.

Our warmest October on record, 1963, which included two days 90, was followed by a cold december. The second warmest October, 1947, was followed by a cold winter. October temps mean nothing wrt winter.

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11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Measurable snowfall, or snow OTG?? Please say snowfall, lol.

Measurable snowfall (0.1"+). In a Great Lakes climate where the snow season often spans 6 months of the year, it's pretty much impossible to not see multiple days of snow, even in the absolute worst winters (1889-90 was a historically bad winter until Feb). The winter with the least amount of days with 1"+ snowcover was 1936-37 with just 10 days. This is also the least snowy winter on record (12.9").

Its harder for you having lived in several places, but pick your least favorite winter (for me it's either 1997-98 or 2011-12) and look at the actual stats and see how even in the worst of times the days with snow do add up somewhat in the end.

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On 10/7/2023 at 7:56 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Measurable snowfall (0.1"+). In a Great Lakes climate where the snow season often spans 6 months of the year, it's pretty much impossible to not see multiple days of snow, even in the absolute worst winters (1889-90 was a historically bad winter until Feb). The winter with the least amount of days with 1"+ snowcover was 1936-37 with just 10 days. This is also the least snowy winter on record (12.9").

Its harder for you having lived in several places, but pick your least favorite winter (for me it's either 1997-98 or 2011-12) and look at the actual stats and see how even in the worst of times the days with snow do add up somewhat in the end.

Uggh! and here I thought 15 days would be horrid, thus why I said "pls say snowfall". That's less than 2 wks of the entire 6 month "window". May we never go through that part of the larger cycle. What is that, like equal to the average for places in TN?

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On 10/3/2023 at 10:47 AM, michsnowfreak said:

NMME Ensemble Mean of 7 longrange models. Far more worried about precip here than temps. This is the Sept update so it should update soon. Euro seasonal (not pictured) is pretty much normal, just slightly milder than avg northern tier.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png

The November update shows the Lakes with a negligible signal of milder than avg and no signal on precip.

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14 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Uggh! and here I thought 15 days would be horrid, thus why I said "pls say snowfall". That's less than 2 wks of the entire 6 month "window". May we never go through that part of the larger cycle. What is that, like equal to the average for places in TN?

Not that its any consolation, but remember Im talking days with 1"+ snowcover, so that doesnt count days of a Trace snowcover (a dusting or patches). 

Honestly TN averages less lol. Knoxville averages 5 days per winter of 1"+ snowcover &  Nashville averages 6 days.

 

For Detroit, the longterm avg is 50 days.

 

Top 5 winters with least 1"+ snowcover days

10 days - 1936-37

11 days - 1931-32

12 days - 1918-19

15 days - 1982-83

16 days - 1952-53

 

Top 5 winters with most 1"+ snowcover days

96 days - 2013-14

91 days - 1977-78

89 days - 1947-48

89 days - 1981-82

86 days - 1966-67

 

Top 5 winters with least days of 0.1"+ snowfall

15 days - 1889-90

17 days - 1918-19

17 days - 1881-82

18 days - 1982-83

18 days - 1948-49


Top 5 winters with most days of 0.1"+ snowfall

62 days - 1925-26

61 days - 1884-85

56 days - 2013-14

52 days - 1880-81, 1892-93, 1903-04, 1911-12, 1985-86

 

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27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not that its any consolation, but remember Im talking days with 1"+ snowcover, so that doesnt count days of a Trace snowcover (a dusting or patches). 

Honestly TN averages less lol. Knoxville averages 5 days per winter of 1"+ snowcover &  Nashville averages 6 days.

 

For Detroit, the longterm avg is 50 days.

 

Top 5 winters with least 1"+ snowcover days

10 days - 1936-37

11 days - 1931-32

12 days - 1918-19

15 days - 1982-83

16 days - 1952-53

 

Top 5 winters with most 1"+ snowcover days

96 days - 2013-14

91 days - 1977-78

89 days - 1947-48

89 days - 1981-82

86 days - 1966-67

 

Top 5 winters with least days of 0.1"+ snowfall

15 days - 1889-90

17 days - 1918-19

17 days - 1881-82

18 days - 1982-83

18 days - 1948-49


Top 5 winters with most days of 0.1"+ snowfall

62 days - 1925-26

61 days - 1884-85

56 days - 2013-14

52 days - 1880-81, 1892-93, 1903-04, 1911-12, 1985-86

 

1982-83 was brutal.  I remember hating that winter so much as a kid.  The brown grass winter!!

If I recall correctly a late snow (March or early April) prevented Detroit from breaking the low snowfall record.  Not sure but I just remembering not to want to ever remember that winter.. :lol:

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