October Long Range

[stormy]

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

They do? It does?

Only one example: That has disappointment written all over it with slight variance.

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

Only one example: That has disappointment written all over it with slight variance.

I'm not quite sure what you're expecting from a seasonal model, but that's a really good signal for precip...and precip of the frozen variety.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I'm not quite sure what you're expecting from a seasonal model, but that's a really good signal for precip...and precip of the frozen variety.

I would enjoy more comfort if the Raleigh expectation was at Staunton/D.C..  My Valley region sorely needs a wet winter, well above normal to replenish a water table now 17 feet below April. If taken literally and we are 1" plus for January-March, that's not enough.  3 - 4 inches would be much better.  Snow? if that is an only desire, this map looks fine.

[hstorm]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

Only one example: That has disappointment written all over it with slight variance.

This shows above-normal precip, right?

[nj2va]

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

I'm not quite sure what you're expecting from a seasonal model, but that's a really good signal for precip...and precip of the frozen variety.

Yeah, I don’t know.  Am I missing something?  

[stormy]

1 hour ago, hstorm said:

This shows above-normal precip, right?

Yes is the literal answer but these seasonal or monthly maps are always subject to significant change. To be safe in wet or dry the most pronounced anomaly is always preferred. We are in more of a fringe wet area with this map.  To be safe in wet we are too far north.

 

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

Yes is the literal answer but these seasonal or monthly maps are always subject to significant change. To be safe in wet or dry the most pronounced anomaly is always preferred. We are in more of a fringe wet area with this map.  To be safe in wet we are too far north.

 

We’re solidly in the +1-+2 deviation with EZF on the +2 line.  I could see if we were barely on the + side at all but I’m not following the concern from a seasonal map where we are clearly in the + precip anomalies.  

[Jebman]

On 10/5/2023 at 9:58 AM, The Dude said:

 

It's nine degrees in January
The AmWx crowd shuffles in
There's the Jebman sittin' next to me
Tellin' tales about storms he's been in

 

He says, Dude why must it be a Miller B?
I'm not really sure when it snows
But it's sad when it's sleet and not measured in feet
While the blizzard in New York blows

 

La, la-la, di-di-da
La-la di-di-da da-dum

Bring us some snow, you're the Jebman
Bring us some snow tonight
Well, we're all in the mood for a KU treat
But the ground ain't lookin' too white

 

Now Bob at the bar is a friend of mine
He posts snow depth maps for free
But the climate's warming, and he's now squirming

Cause there's some place the snow'd rather be

He says, Dude, this northern trend is killing me
As the snow ran away from his place
Well, I'm sure that we could see a real storm
If we could go up North to chase

 

Oh, la, la-la, di-di-da
La-la di-di-da da-dum

 

Now PSU makes posts like a novelist
Whose forecast cuts me like a knife
And he's talkin' with Randy, who's had too much brandy
And getting sick of the strife

And the white rain isn't making the roads slick
As the salt trucks continue to brine
And the models get worse with every mouse click
On the wrong side of the rain/snow line

 

Bring us some snow, you're the Jebman
Bring us some snow tonight
Well, we're all in the mood for a KU treat
But the ground ain't lookin' too white

 

It's a another bad storm for a January
And the forecast missed by a mile
'Cause its the new base state that's been making us wait
To shovel an enormous snow pile

And the storm, it sounds like an epic fail
And our winter climate seems kaput
As I sit in my car and look at the radar
I see PSU will still get a foot

 

Oh, la, la-la, di-di-da
La-la di-di-da da-dum

 

Bring us some snow, you're the Jebman
Bring us some snow tonight
Well, we're all in the mood for a KU treat
But the ground ain't lookin' too white

Very, very well done! That, is the BEST laugh I have had for a long time, lmao!

Mid Atlantic is not gonna be singing about snow this winter,

You're gonna be digging snow, and lots of it!

You're gonna need a bigger shovel!

[Ji]

Euro weeklies look about normal for the area. Probably a bit if a warmer signal than colder but nothing really screams anything more than average

[stormy]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

We’re solidly in the +1-+2 deviation with EZF on the +2 line.  I could see if we were barely on the + side at all but I’m not following the concern from a seasonal map where we are clearly in the + precip anomalies.  

The Dec. - Feb thoughts look better.  The trend in the Jan. - Mar. map is not our friend for a wet winter. Its trending in the wrong direction. That dry slot in the OV is pressing.   Hopefully in early November, it will reverse course.

The CPC says today we have an 80% prob. of  +1.5 or more in 3.4 in Dec.-Jan. . That is a strong signal for above normal snow for at least western areas.

[clskinsfan]

Storms continue to want to climb the coast this fall. I mentioned it a month ago in another thread. Everything has wanted to come up the coast for the past 2 months. We are going to have chances this winter. No guarantee any of this winters storms will be snowstorms. But I am going big for my winter forecast this year.  At least for my area way west.

[Terpeast]

56 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Storms continue to want to climb the coast this fall. I mentioned it a month ago in another thread. Everything has wanted to come up the coast for the past 2 months. We are going to have chances this winter. No guarantee any of this winters storms will be snowstorms. But I am going big for my winter forecast this year.  At least for my area way west.

If this winter finds a way to fail, it won’t be for lack of storms. It’ll be the cold air

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Storms continue to want to climb the coast this fall. I mentioned it a month ago in another thread. Everything has wanted to come up the coast for the past 2 months. We are going to have chances this winter. No guarantee any of this winters storms will be snowstorms. But I am going big for my winter forecast this year.  At least for my area way west.

Cautiously optimistic this could be a big winter for our areas further north and west.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro weeklies look about normal for the area. Probably a bit if a warmer signal than colder but nothing really screams anything more than average

09-10 had the 4th coldest October on record for the US. Cold air has been harder to find these days. 

[clskinsfan]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

09-10 had the 4th coldest October on record. Cold air has been harder to find these days. 

Yep. Temps will probably always be a worry going forward. But you need storms at least to have a chance. I think we will have storms this year. Plenty of them. 

 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Storms continue to want to climb the coast this fall. I mentioned it a month ago in another thread. Everything has wanted to come up the coast for the past 2 months. We are going to have chances this winter. No guarantee any of this winters storms will be snowstorms. But I am going big for my winter forecast this year.  At least for my area way west.

I’m feeling really good for an AN winter for 81/west. 

[WxUSAF]

On 10/10/2023 at 7:08 AM, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles in agreement on coupled -EPO/+PNA D10-15. Should provide first freeze chances to many. 
 

We’ve lost the coupled +PNA/-EPO look. Now seems like a +PNA that we lose right when the EPO tanks. Still could offer freeze chances If things time up well but not as confident an outlook now.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, that was a big jump over a few model runs. Now we have a ridge near the Aleutian islands. I think that typhoon phasing into a +PNA N. Pacific trough was the cause -- I've seen other model run shifts and they have to do with tropical cyclones phasing, or thereafter. 

In other news, the -NAO that I posted about earlier is almost completely gone on LR models. They are still trying to develop a -AO, but it's not nearly as strong as models a few days ago. I've noticed this trend too-- strong -nao's on LR models doesn't trend more significant unless something major is the culprit like a Stratosphere warming.  Could be something going into the Winter: every -NAO wants to pop a -PNA ridge with it, while +NAO's coincide with +PNA's. (I was hoping ENSO would change this slate-- that's what's been happening for a few years now). 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, that was a big jump over a few model runs. Now we have a ridge near the Aleutian islands. I think that typhoon phasing into a +PNA N. Pacific trough was the cause -- I've seen other model run shifts and they have to do with tropical cyclones phasing, or thereafter. 

In other news, the -NAO that I posted about earlier is almost completely gone on LR models. They are still trying to develop a -AO, but it's not nearly as strong as models a few days ago. I've noticed this trend too-- strong -nao's on LR models doesn't trend more significant unless something major is the culprit like a Stratosphere warming.  Could be something going into the Winter: every -NAO wants to pop a -PNA ridge with it, while +NAO's coincide with +PNA's. (I was hoping ENSO would change this slate-- that's what's been happening for a few years now). 

A Nino teleconnects to a mean Aleutian low during the winter months, exact position tbd. That 'should' cool the waters north of Hawaii to some degree , and move the -PDO more towards neutral, promoting the potential for +PNA episodes going forward. We shall see exactly what transpires in the AO/NAO domains, with the QBO phase and Strat water vapor likely having significant (potentially competing) influences. A crapshoot at this juncture.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A Nino does teleconnect to more of a +PNA pattern. That the ENSO subsurface is mostly warm, with no cold anomalies makes me think the classic idea will work, although only in Weak-Moderate-like range. A lot of "Pacific firehoses" in bad Nino analogs were because of cold ENSO subsurface waters, which we don't have right now. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Ensembles showing a transitory -pna the last week of october, starting with a building ridge over aleutians/alaska.

But what’s interesting is support for a rex block in the north pac, with a low/trough replacing that stubborn nina-like ridge north/NW of hawaii. 
 

Longer range shows additional ridging over the aleutians and west thereof, with continued troughing NW of hawaii. Will be interesting to see how the PDO evolves, and I’m thinking much less negative than it is now.

 

[Its a Breeze]

On 10/4/2023 at 8:51 PM, WxUSAF said:

So far I’d say October’s going to look nationwide more like the warm version on top than that frigid version on the bottom even if we have a chance at a BN month. 

 

On 10/4/2023 at 9:27 PM, Ji said:

Yep we got some work to do to get that blue lol

GFS says - say no more:

[Weather Will]

Slight differences between the WB 12Z EURO and the GFS/ GDPS for Friday night/ Saturday.  I sense it is going to be an active and brutal tracking season.

[Scraff]

49 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Slight differences between the WB 12Z EURO and the GFS/ GDPS for Friday night/ Saturday.  I sense it is going to be an active and brutal tracking season.

It won’t be brutal at all! If we just go ahead and ignore the Euro trash on every storm, we shouldn’t have any major surprises. King GooFuS reigns supreme until proven otherwise. 

[Ji]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Slight differences between the WB 12Z EURO and the GFS/ GDPS for Friday night/ Saturday.  I sense it is going to be an active and brutal tracking season.

i dont see much difference between the euro and GFS...the  bad angle of the diving SW and late redevelopment typically isnt condusive for us getting alot of precip

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 10/11/2023 at 12:45 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is one heck of a -NAO signal 

https://ibb.co/tbC17N6

I wonder if it's going to coincide with a warm Stratosphere, and if so,  that is a signal to downwell around or before Christmas time, if 10mb warming does go with this. 

Man was this off, and it got 5 likes lol. A +NAO is now occurring, as that had to be one of the biggest trends I've ever seen on MR models. It also has been all over the place in the Pacific.. I've been looking at GFS ensembles every day for 4-5 years, and recent trends are definitely the biggest bust I've seen in the 10+D. It went to -PNA then away from -PNA (now), just -EPO, It was showing +PNA in the beginning... I think the Strong El Nino is messing with LR model accuracy, but again, that's easily the biggest trends I've ever seen in the last 5 years in term of LR GFS ensemble mean verification. 

[WxUSAF]

With a few torchy days next week looking likely, about certain October ends up AN. But still a chance for first freeze depending how that series of plains storms develops. Some broader factors suggest we should get a good cold push sometime Halloween week. 

[SnowenOutThere]

First digital snowfall of the season on the GFS for the northwestern crew. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

LR GFS ensemble for Nov 5th looks bad.. -AAM pattern (Nov 1 starts the strong +correlation to the Winter), but maybe we are heading for a better Winter regardless. It looks like a mild start to November.