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New England Met Autumn 2023 Banter


bristolri_wx
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6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Alex,  I'm a volcano/earthquake nerd too.  I have been watching Iceland non stop.  As of today, Monday that whole area is closed and evacuated.  The good news is that the tremors are slowing down so the magma may not make it to the surface, hence no eruption.  Enjoy the Aurora's.  My sister in law just got back and Iceland was so much better than she had imagined. 

I love volcanoes too. Saw Yellowstone,Craters of the Moon, Stromboli (erupting), and Hawaii this year. We’ve kinda made it a year of the “volcano travel” so Iceland seemed like a good ending. :)

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Has there been any discussion of this new model? First I hear or read about it.

 

Why your weather forecasts may soon become more accurate (yahoo.com)

Lol, this is not saying much. 

“GraphCast was about 10 percent more accurate than the European model on more than 90 percent of the weather variables evaluated.”

The upside though is AI being Faster and using much less computing power.

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol, this is not saying much. 

“GraphCast was about 10 percent more accurate than the European model on more than 90 percent of the weather variables evaluated.”

The upside though is AI being Faster and using much less computing power.

The headline mad it sound like they found the holy grail, I doubt it better than any of the models now in use. Just wondering if I missed a conversation about it.

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2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Has there been any discussion of this new model? First I hear or read about it.

 

Why your weather forecasts may soon become more accurate (yahoo.com)

I'd like them to work more on their nowcasting.  Some results are promising but it still has a quite ways to go.  The benefits if they could quickly generate a highly accurate 20-30 minute nowcast would be immense.  AI based methods *might* be able to pick up on convective initiation even without true data assimilation.  Non AI nowcasts cannot.  But AFAIK non AI methods are still outperforming AI methods right now.

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Our 1 minute update radar data has a ton of potential for training ML models.  Have hundreds of terabytes of it.  Starting to look into it now.  

Recently had a paper accepted that uses a non ML approach, run in parallel with parameterizations tweaked to produce an ensemble nowcast and converted to gridded risk for stochastic routing purposes.  Every minute produces an updated grid of risk for every minute from 1-20 mins.  (About 2 mins latent)   But a single ML based deterministic nowcast would still be better it if were accurate.

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15 hours ago, Supernovice said:

Watching a documentary “Buried” on Netflix. About an avalanche in 1982 and meteorology, topography, ski patrols etc… Feel like it would resonate with some on this board, worth the watch.

I'd like to see that, I watched the trailer but haven't got around to seeing it, amazing that woman was found after 5 days by the dog.

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5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'd like to see that, I watched the trailer but haven't got around to seeing it, amazing that woman was found after 5 days by the dog.

The whole story is just amazing/tragic. It's really well done and would highly recommend. This really becomes the basis for modern U.S. avalanche forecasting and rescue.

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Any birders out there know why birds of all types minus woodpeckers disappeared for the last 2 months. They have come back in full force of many varieties. The woods once again are filled with bird sounds. Our local FB group has noticed as well. Strange 

The wife and I commented on that recently here as well - specifically with regard to Cardinals.  We thought it was due to us not feeding them recently.  Everything seems to be back now although the Cardinals have been elusive which is really odd for our house.  They're always here year round.  We've had a Carolina Wren bouncing around the mulch beds the past week too which is new.  Haven't seen many groups of geese but the did see an absolutely massive group heading W/SW a couple weeks ago.  Probably the largest I've ever seen.  Like they all got up at once and took off.  

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5 minutes ago, Layman said:

The wife and I commented on that recently here as well - specifically with regard to Cardinals.  We thought it was due to us not feeding them recently.  Everything seems to be back now although the Cardinals have been elusive which is really odd for our house.  They're always here year round.  We've had a Carolina Wren bouncing around the mulch beds the past week too which is new.  Haven't seen many groups of geese but the did see an absolutely massive group heading W/SW a couple weeks ago.  Probably the largest I've ever seen.  Like they all got up at once and took off.  

Yes we watched a massive Goose flyover a couple of weeks ago as well.

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Any birders out there know why birds of all types minus woodpeckers disappeared for the last 2 months. They have come back in full force of many varieties. The woods once again are filled with bird sounds. Our local FB group has noticed as well. Strange 
We noticed the same thing in early September. The birds just see to vanish. Most have slowly returned now, but not seeing any finches or woodpeckers. Cardinal numbers also seem low as do the returning juncoes. Haven't seen any theories or explanations.

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk

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28 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

We noticed the same thing in early September. The birds just see to vanish. Most have slowly returned now, but not seeing any finches or woodpeckers. Cardinal numbers also seem low as do the returning juncoes. Haven't seen any theories or explanations.

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Means winter is over.

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2 hours ago, HimoorWx said:

Thanks. That's what my wife thought too. Not sure where the nearest tree is. Certainly not in our yard, but I will look around.

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My neighbor had a walnut tree, there used to a ton of those nuts around, I guess he hated cleaning them up every year and had the tree cut down.

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