Wake Me Up When September Ends..Obs/Diso

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats on a misery weekend call. Thought it wouldn’t be too bad initially but it looks dreary until early Monday. Oh well, get high and enjoy the indoors. 

[dendrite]

Hopefully the goofus is right.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats on a misery weekend call. Thought it wouldn’t be too bad initially but it looks dreary until early Monday. Oh well, get high and enjoy the indoors. 

I was hopeful too, but deep down I knew hydro was coming back.

This is made all the more impressive by the fact that this is the first heavy rain event here that’s directly influenced by tropical. In 2021 and a lot of the other big rainfall years tropical had a heavy influence.

[powderfreak]

We should have an ok weekend up north, dry weather and able to get outside in the mtns.

48/47 this evening, feels like September.  Been a nice couple days.

Average is 68/44, yesterday was 67/42.  Today max of 70F.

We should be hitting the 30s without a lot of difficulty this time of year.  Last night was close at 39-41F. But it has been mild.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I guess the silver lining is high latitude blocking showing up in early fall precedes winter’s behavior maybe?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I guess the silver lining is high latitude blocking showing up in early fall precedes winter’s behavior maybe?

We hope, though my concern is that we flip this in November. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z

 

3+ on the euro for scooter. Good thing he’s riding the long range NAM

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We should have an ok weekend up north, dry weather and able to get outside in the mtns.

48/47 this evening, feels like September.  Been a nice couple days.

Yea you’re good there. Still a chance this get sheared out and shoved east down here minimizing the rains. Just needs to behave like the past couple winters down here with weak sauce saggy lows and we can salvage the weekend a bit lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We hope, though my concern is that we flip this in November. 

If it was another nina then I would agree but the nino gives me a different vibe. 

[kdxken]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a period coming up. 3 brutal days afd it probably lingers into midweek.

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights:

* Increasing confidence on a long-duration period of overcast with
  wind-driven stratiform/steady rain Sat through Mon. Expect below
  normal highs and near seasonable lows with narrow diurnal
  temperature ranges.

* Greatest rain totals more favored on Sat, with a steady light to
  moderate rain later Sun into Mon. Rain will add up over time and
  could result in urban/poor drainage street flooding and gradual
  but steady rises on creeks, streams and larger rivers. Rain
  totals remain uncertain but Flood Watches could be needed.

* NE gale-force gusts possible this weekend

Wind driven stratiform rain. What's not to like?

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We hope, though my concern is that we flip this in November. 

Or the warm anomalies continue, and events are moving through at a good cadence but often not cold enough.  My default winter expectation is warmer than average, but the storm train (strong energy and thermal battleground overhead) has been going  since June 1. Ride the wave until it stops.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea you’re good there. Still a chance this get sheared out and shoved east down here minimizing the rains. Just needs to behave like the past couple winters down here with weak sauce saggy lows and we can salvage the weekend a bit lol.

Problem is it’s September not January

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea you’re good there. Still a chance this get sheared out and shoved east down here minimizing the rains. Just needs to behave like the past couple winters down here with weak sauce saggy lows and we can salvage the weekend a bit lol.

That doesn’t seem to happen when it’s a rain event…now if this was December 21, you can bet it’d get sheared out and ground up like Hamburg, and NYC down into Jersey would get 18-24. 

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane models for whatever they’re worth with a broad low, have future Ophelia get sub 990mb before a NC landfall. All in agreement in a heavy rain event in SNE. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

3+ on the euro for scooter. Good thing he’s riding the long range NAM

Ya poor guy is just hoping for anything that shows lil to no rain…but as he likes to say, it ain’t happening James. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That doesn’t seem to happen when it’s a rain event…now if this was December 21, you can bet it’d get sheared out and ground up like Hamburg, and NYC down into Jersey would get 18-24. 

Oh yea. We crush rain events easily. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hurricane models for whatever they’re worth with a broad low, have future Ophelia get sub 990mb before a NC landfall. All in agreement in a heavy rain event in SNE. 

Ya I think it’s coming with this one…the rain that is. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If it was another nina then I would agree but the nino gives me a different vibe. 

Ya that’s our Trump card this year…sub tropical jet can deliver the goods. Just need seasonable cold nothing brutal. 

[WinterWolf]

35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z

 

GFS is almost 4” here, Euro is about 2”…either way it’s a good soaker according to those two models. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Scooter should avert his eyes at the new Nam 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Scooter should avert his eyes at the new Nam 

Let me guess…it’s a flooder?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let me guess…it’s a flooder?

You bet. 3k is even more 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You bet. 3k is even more 

Oh boy…should we say AWT? 

[Typhoon Tip]

2nd in unredeeming only to April

[mreaves]

39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You bet. 3k is even more 

Hopefully it eases the drought you’ve been suffering through. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is a hilariously awful weekend. Both days completed washed out with 3-5” of rain

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If it was another nina then I would agree but the nino gives me a different vibe. 

I think it may flip.

[Damage In Tolland]

Something to look forward to ?

[Torch Tiger]

With the very warm, dry winter ahead....we'll need these autumn flooders.  Otherwise we'll be screaming Stein next Spring

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Something to look forward to ?

Shocker. When aren’t they above?  That doesn’t bother me at all. I’ll take my chances. Last year was the worst, no way we beat(get worse)than last years rat here…no way.