July 26 Severe Weather

[Harry Perry]

Thinking that the best shot for severe will be closer to Metro Detroit later on today. Lots of clouds and the decaying mcs is out running the better support over this way.

[Jonger]

Hmm.

I really hope I don't lose power.

[outflow]

16 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Thinking that the best shot for severe will be closer to Metro Detroit later on today. Lots of clouds and the decaying mcs is out running the better support over this way.

I think the severe chances, besides some low end risk over the next 1-3 hrs, are highly in question just about anywhere in the enhanced risk area with this first mcs coming through before the better support and dynamics come into play later this afternoon.  There will have to be a quick recovery in order for another round to fire and have a chance at some higher end potential. 

At least there is another widespread rainfall to continue to erase drought concerns. 

[sbnwx85]

Should get some big boomers at least.

[Harry Perry]

33 minutes ago, outflow said:

I think the severe chances, besides some low end risk over the next 1-3 hrs, are highly in question just about anywhere in the enhanced risk area with this first mcs coming through before the better support and dynamics come into play later this afternoon.  There will have to be a quick recovery in order for another round to fire and have a chance at some higher end potential. 

At least there is another widespread rainfall to continue to erase drought concerns. 

I agree. GRR is optimistic on this first round not overturning the atmosphere and better instability (even mentioning sunshine) later this afternoon setting the stage for severe. 

I just don’t see that happening, and the 15z HRRR agrees. I could see more of an isolated threat but with that, most of the storms this afternoon would be independent sups capable of some tornados with the directional shear in place.

 

Highly conditional, but would expect areas closer to Detroit, Toledo, Findley and areas into Canada - such as  Chatham to really be under the gun later on today.

[Chicago916]

Inb4 Northern Illinois supercells this afternoon.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

Thinking that the best shot for severe will be closer to Metro Detroit later on today. Lots of clouds and the decaying mcs is out running the better support over this way.

Agreed with Metro Detroit getting a decent hit with round 1.

Pretty good heating is underway in that area, and there's now a good surge of moisture happening ahead of the ongoing complex.

[SolidIcewx]

I’m anticipating round 2 will be what hits where I am in Lima. Metro Detroit don’t need anymore damage. Power poles already crumbling to dust

[Chargers09]

Zero severe warnings currently, radar trends not great either 

[SchaumburgStormer]

N IL clearing out nicely. Lots of questions for a potential round 2, but temps should be off to the races shortly. 

[sbnwx85]

It was sub-severe but a great, long storm nevertheless. Lots of thunder and lightning, winds gusting to 45 mph and torrential rain for about half an hour. Best storm of the summer personally. And the power stayed on!

[Malacka11]

7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

N IL clearing out nicely. Lots of questions for a potential round 2, but temps should be off to the races shortly. 

Obv I know fuck all about how the atmosphere actually works but if I were a farmer in the 30s I would 100% be keeping an eye on the sky for later. Was sweating like a hooker in church out there today.

[SolidIcewx]

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

Obv I know fuck all about how the atmosphere actually works but if I were a farmer in the 30s I would 100% be keeping an eye on the sky for later. Was sweating like a hooker in church out there today.

Hotter than a hookers door knob on a Friday night in Vegas eh?

[Harry Perry]

Had a 20mph gust-front here with some torrential rain. Minor flooding on side streets. Temps down to 66°. No lightning. 

The atmosphere has over-turneth. 

[Malacka11]

13 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Hotter than a hookers door knob on a Friday night in Vegas eh?

Good one, added straight to the registry of oddly specific humourous phrases

[TheNiño]

Got close to severe wind limits here in Kenosha but not quite. Trees and lines down in Sturtevant though. Best storm of the year so far so I’ll take it. Not a whole lot of CG but the constant rumble of thunder is music to my ears. 

[Chicago Storm]

6 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

N IL clearing out nicely. Lots of questions for a potential round 2, but temps should be off to the races shortly. 

It’s a race of time right now.

A potent MCV continues steadily moving east across S WI. The window of opportunity is fairly short though, before the MCV moves too far east.

Shall see how it goes here over the next two hours or so, but a solid environment for severe t'storms is advecting back in, in the wake of the early round of activity.

[CheeselandSkies]

25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It’s a race of time right now.

Potent MCV continues steadily moving east across S WI. The window of opportunity is fairly small, before it moves too far east to be of help for development.

Shall see how it goes here over the next two hours.


.

Overachieved a bit this morning with I think three rounds of severe-warned cells moving through southern Wisconsin. Shouldn't have been a surprise, really. SPC would have done well to leave the slight risk they introduced with the first Day 2 yesterday in place, or at least leave the entire area in a marginal instead of just the eastern half.

Several reports of wind damage, especially in Rock County. Not all of them have made the LSRs on SPC's page, yet.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The portion of the line that just came through was fun, 50-60 gusts, soaking rain and lots of thunder and lightning, a classic summer storm.

[frostfern]

zzz…. No good lightning once again.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Aaaaand the award for weirdest polygon of the day goes to DTX

[nwohweather]

Nice line approaching at the moment. Will be interesting to see what transpires as the instability is quite a bit higher over SE MI/NW OH, but it's outrunning the better shear a bit

[nwohweather]

Definitely some spin up potential here

[frostfern]

I get a severe warned shower with tops below 30k and no lightning.  Weird wake low winds or something.  Skip.  Just give me a real thunderstorm once this year.

[Harry Perry]

1 minute ago, frostfern said:

I get a severe warned shower with tops below 30k and no lightning.  Skip.  Just give me a real thunderstorm once this year.

Yeah, I kinda had a feeling this is how today would unfold. 
 

I’d throw the towel in anywhere west of 127 and north of 96. Believe anything that develops to the west will be sub-severe and mainly follow the instability gradient to the south. 

[frostfern]

3 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Yeah, I kinda had a feeling this is how today would unfold. 
 

I’d throw the towel in anywhere west of 127 and north of 96. Believe anything that develops to the west will be sub-severe and mainly follow the instability gradient to the south. 

Apparently the old MCV still has wind with it even with no deep convection remaining.  I don’t even want severe, just one good storm with some lightning strikes within a mile radius.  So it looks like one more chance Friday and then back to the perpetual suppressed south and east pattern of this summer.

[Powerball]

Mesoscale Discussion 1727
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

   Areas affected...Southeast lower MI into northwest OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551...

   Valid 261914Z - 262045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado
   will continue and perhaps increase into late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS has recently intensified from southeast lower MI
   into northwest OH, with embedded bowing segments noted southwest of
   Detroit and west of Toledo. The 18Z DTX sounding was rather
   favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg (when
   modified for current observations) and effective shear of around 40
   kt. With steepening low-level lapse rates and the well-organized
   character of the ongoing QLCS, the damaging-wind threat may increase
   with time until the system moves through the area. Also, while
   surface winds may tend to veer with time, a reasonably strong
   southwest low-level jet (as noted on the 18Z DTX sounding and recent
   DTX VWPs) will support sufficient low-level shear/SRH for a brief
   tornado threat with line-embedded circulations.

   ..Dean.. 07/26/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   42548394 42868380 42878290 42368293 41878291 41438283
               41138310 41118383 41168413 41208439 41478427 41778401
               42138379 42548394 

[Powerball]

Decent-looking bow echo (on radar) pushing right into the city. 

[SolidIcewx]

6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Decent-looking bow echo (on radar) pushing right into the city. 

FaceTimed with my fiancé as it was rolling in. Power was flickering at home even before the shelf rolled in. Got lucky again this time 

[sbnwx85]

Storms re-firing over southern Lake Michigan.