Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

ready 2 b buried

[TheClimateChanger]

35 minutes ago, Spartman said:

There are many summers with a lack of 90-degree days that are followed by cold/snowy winters.

Will be interesting to see whether Dayton accumulates another 90 degree day today. 5-minute observations show a number of 90F readings, but, due to rounding issues, that does not guarantee a high of 90F.

[A-L-E-K]

super clipper winter coming up?

[Chicago Storm]

Usually I'm not big on the long range thoughts as much during the summer, mostly cause I'm out actually enjoying things. However...

I did want to mention that it is likely that this active seasonable/trough/NW flow type pattern will stay locked in around the Midwest/Great Lakes for the next week or so. This is partially the product of a generally -NAO/+PNA regime in place on the larger scale.

Looks like the next push of hotter temps/higher humidity will be centered around the Aug 19-24th period or so, as the -NAO relaxes and the PNA flips fairly negative.

[Baum]

11 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Usually I'm not big on the long range thoughts as much during the summer, mostly cause I'm out actually enjoying things. However...

I did want to mention that it is likely that this active seasonable/trough/NW flow type pattern will stay locked in around the Midwest/Great Lakes for the next week or so. This is partially the product of a generally -NAO/+PNA regime in place on the larger scale.

Looks like the next push of hotter temps/higher humidity will be centered around the Aug 19-24th period or so, as the -NAO relaxes and the PNA flips fairly negative.

Local schools go back 8/22, and the wife returns to the classroom so this makes sense.

[A-L-E-K]

the lack of heat throughout summer has been great comfort wise, so many nice days

 

[cyclone77]

zzzzz

[hawkeye_wx]

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

zzzzz

Yep.  Warm and bone dry for the foreseeable future.  The early August rain was just a brief tease.

[Chambana]

Wall to wall sunshine for the foreseeable future, and possibly another hot Labor Day weekend. I have no precipitation in my extended until Friday, September 8th.

[A-L-E-K]

On 8/11/2023 at 6:18 AM, A-L-E-K said:

the lack of heat throughout summer has been great comfort wise, so many nice days

 

Is it ending friends?

[Spartman]

 

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm really liking the model trend for late in the month.  For weeks, the op GFS has been mostly bone dry across Iowa and surrounding areas, and it has been correct.  Recent runs, however, have become much wetter across the region, beyond week one, with 2-3" in spots.  The GEFS and EPS mean continue to gradually moisten up, region-wide, as well.

[A-L-E-K]

time 2 torch

 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

On 9/13/2023 at 3:52 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm really liking the model trend for late in the month.  For weeks, the op GFS has been mostly bone dry across Iowa and surrounding areas, and it has been correct.  Recent runs, however, have become much wetter across the region, beyond week one, with 2-3" in spots.  The GEFS and EPS mean continue to gradually moisten up, region-wide, as well.

The GFS is still solid, but the Euro has reversed the positive trend and is going backward.  The Euro is now trying to cut off a big low over the southeast US and also the Rockies/plains, with a blocking ridge forming over the lakes that does not allow much moisture to get into our region through day ten.  It's giving me a flashback to our awful spring pattern.

[michsnowfreak]

It was fun this summer watching the heat just hit a wall most of the time before making its way to the eastern Lakes. Crazy to see the disparity between Chicago and here.

# of 90F days in 2023

Milwaukee- 10 (max 101)
Chicago- 21 (max 100)
Minneapolis- 32 (max 98)

Detroit- 2 (max 90)
Flint- 2 (max 91)
Cleveland- 2 (max 91)
 

[Powerball]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was fun this summer watching the heat just hit a wall most of the time before making its way to the eastern Lakes. Crazy to see the disparity between Chicago and here.

# of 90F days in 2023

Milwaukee- 10 (max 101)
Chicago- 21 (max 100)
Minneapolis- 32 (max 98)

Detroit- 2 (max 90)
Flint- 2 (max 91)
Cleveland- 2 (max 91)
 

 

And even for the western parts of the subforum, on balance it wasn't a hot Summer.

A lot of similarities to 2009 pattern-wise, with most of the heat centered over LA, TX, New Mexico and Arizona.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was fun this summer watching the heat just hit a wall most of the time before making its way to the eastern Lakes. Crazy to see the disparity between Chicago and here.

# of 90F days in 2023

Milwaukee- 10 (max 101)
Chicago- 21 (max 100)
Minneapolis- 32 (max 98)

Detroit- 2 (max 90)
Flint- 2 (max 91)
Cleveland- 2 (max 91)
 

Minneapolis ftw! Most days above 90 and most days below 0 in the subforum. Best Climo

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Minneapolis ftw! Most days above 90 and most days below 0 in the subforum. Best Climo

The midwest climate of hot summers and cold winters is fairly unique on a global scale, a true definition of 4 seasons...and one thing that's sometimes easy to forget here in MI is despite our winter cold and summer heat, the Lakes are always buffering the extremes (though this summers constant buffer seemed a bit more anomalous). It's crazy some of the annual extremes out in MSP and especially the plains.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The midwest climate of hot summers and cold winters is fairly unique on a global scale, a true definition of 4 seasons...and one thing that's sometimes easy to forget here in MI is despite our winter cold and summer heat, the Lakes are always buffering the extremes (though this summers constant buffer seemed a bit more anomalous). It's crazy some of the annual extremes out in MSP and especially the plains.

Yeah I absolutely love the 4 very distinct seasons the Midwest enjoys where weather changes every 90 days or so. Bismarck ND and the plains are way more extreme, they can be 100+ for a week and -10 for a week. 

[cyclone77]

9 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Minneapolis ftw! Most days above 90 and most days below 0 in the subforum. Best Climo

MLI hit 90 36 times this year.  

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI hit 90 36 times this year.  

MBY is only about 360 miles ENE with one 90 degree day . Thanks GLs and Canada

[WestMichigan]

My temp sensor runs a little high but I have recorded 10 days of 90 or higher this year.  Factoring in the offset I am probably closer to 6 or 7 days at or above 90.

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

My temp sensor runs a little high but I have recorded 10 days of 90 or higher this year.  Factoring in the offset I am probably closer to 6 or 7 days at or above 90.

Wow I just noticed Grand Rapids had 14 days. Just crazy how the heat continuously hit a wall in eastern MI.

[SolidIcewx]

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow I just noticed Grand Rapids had 14 days. Just crazy how the heat continuously hit a wall in eastern MI.

We definitely had our share of storms and rain though for sure