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Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

op euro is....good?!

Some runs are kicking out the SE cutoff and extending the Mexico/Texas death ridge northeast, setting up an I-80 baroclinic zone.  Op runs like 12 days ago occasionally showed this mythical mirage of a pattern change only to trend back to the SE troughing / rex block as the time approached.  

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Some runs are kicking out the SE cutoff and extending the Mexico/Texas death ridge northeast, setting up an I-80 baroclinic zone.  Op runs like 12 days ago occasionally showed this mythical mirage of a pattern change only to trend back to the SE troughing / rex block as the time approached.  

What’s up with this I80 it’s like anything north is a no go zone. Interesting how common it is

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1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

What’s up with this I80 it’s like anything north is a no go zone. Interesting how common it is

At least if the front gets stalled it can come back north, or at least trigger overrunning precip or elevated convection to its north.  The problem is the cold fronts this year seem to clear everything and end up in the SE CONUS where they reinforce / regenerate the East Coast / SE CONUS cutoff pattern that never seems to end.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Ready 2b drowned

Ready 2b miss south stanked.  Not even any heat.  Oh look, a drought with 2 sprinkles and temps in the 70s.  Michigan might as well be the new coastal Namibia.  This summer is going down in history as the most boring ever.  There’s just no way it can get any more boring.

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7 hours ago, frostfern said:

Ready 2b miss south stanked.  Not even any heat.  Oh look, a drought with 2 sprinkles and temps in the 70s.  Michigan might as well be the new coastal Namibia.  This summer is going down in history as the most boring ever.  There’s just no way it can get any more boring.

you did get smoke.

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On 6/23/2023 at 7:46 AM, Baum said:

you did get smoke.

I mean, parts of Michigan did get a decent severe weather event this past Sunday (nothing earth shattering, but relative to climo, it was a solid outbreak).

It just didn't happen in everyone's backyard.

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This afternoon was the first time I had any sort of excitement writing an AFD since one of the late season winter events. I was on a ski trip out west for March 31st and I worked April 4th but I don't think I wrote one of the AFDs for that. So yeah, it's been a while. Next couple weeks look potentially solid if you like mid summer RoF type stuff.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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Still feels like miss south will be the rule for me with the frontal zone refusing to push north of I-80.  High latitude Greenland block is good for shear/baroclinicity this time of year, but the constantly bad MJO / ENSO phase combo keeps the SE ridge from ever really flexing. 

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8 hours ago, frostfern said:

Still feels like miss south will be the rule for me with the frontal zone refusing to push north of I-80.  High latitude Greenland block is good for shear/baroclinicity this time of year, but the constantly bad MJO / ENSO phase combo keeps the SE ridge from ever really flexing. 

Yeah. GFS has pretty strong WNW 500mb flow for the time of year over us next Tuesday/Wednesday, but suggests instability will be lacking.

Despite being a career chase for me, March 31 is too damn early for our :twister:season to start and finish.

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20 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah. GFS has pretty strong WNW 500mb flow for the time of year over us next Tuesday/Wednesday, but suggests instability will be lacking.

Despite being a career chase for me, March 31 is too damn early for our :twister:season to start and finish.

Well if it makes you feel any better my 2016 chase season peaked even earlier on March 15th with the Good Hope IL nader lol.

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16 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah. GFS has pretty strong WNW 500mb flow for the time of year over us next Tuesday/Wednesday, but suggests instability will be lacking.

Despite being a career chase for me, March 31 is too damn early for our :twister:season to start and finish.

We got smoke season instead this year.

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16 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Well if it makes you feel any better my 2016 chase season peaked even earlier on March 15th with the Good Hope IL nader lol.

Caught a twilight glimpse of the Trivoli EF2 from the Casey's gas station on the west edge of Hanna City that day. I wanted to stay put and shoot it, or even drive a little north up IL-78 to try and get around the tree line, but my chase partner at the time (who was driving) freaked out a bit and wanted to keep driving east to stay ahead of it. So we let it go in the darkness and never did see it again.

ef2-tornado-hanna-city-il-3152016_25718301982_o.jpg

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7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Caught a twilight glimpse of the Trivoli EF2 from the Casey's gas station on the west edge of Hanna City that day. I wanted to stay put and shoot it, or even drive a little north up IL-78 to try and get around the tree line, but my chase partner at the time (who was driving) freaked out a bit and wanted to keep driving east to stay ahead of it. So we let it go in the darkness and never did see it again.

ef2-tornado-hanna-city-il-3152016_25718301982_o.jpg

If you were in that spot today it would be blocked by a Dollar General.

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