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Stormlover74
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5 hours ago, nj08822 said:

More rain in Nazareth PA to begin Sunday.  We got slammed between 5 and 9pm last night.  Just relentless rain and t-storms.  Florida-type weather.

Hope y'all who need the rain get it 

You guys did real well last night.  Multiple reports of over 2.5” in that area. I am a little south of you and didn’t get much of anything.

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5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i have a good feeling about the west half of the metro today

Real interesting feature on the radar a little earlier showing a north to south oriented front moving from east to west across NJ towards eastern PA.  This feature was firing up storms along the way as it intersected different outflow boundaries already in place.  It looks to have washed out now.

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With the upper low to the west the storms develop and hook to the left. As the upper low moves out slowly to the north and east development of storms will further east but also further north. NYC area residents looking to get their lawns watered have to hope the shift is now not too far the north and more to the east. The positive is that there's so much moisture and lift in the atmosphere over the Ohio Valley that has to sooner or later come east the odds are most of us will do well particularly later Monday into Tuesday when some severe wx is possible.

WX/PT

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

You guys did real well last night.  Multiple reports of over 2.5” in that area. I am a little south of you and didn’t get much of anything.

Mostly missing us, but last night was something we have not experienced in years.

Looks more active south, west and north today.

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m sure they are in for an exciting day tomorrow. We will more then likely watch a mature squall line fizzle as it hits the metro

South Jersey Alley always produces these days. Full on south shore drought pattern here. Maybe at home on the north shore I’ll luck out one day with a sea breeze front storm/shower. Otherwise just disgusting humidity. 

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2 hours ago, BlizzLuv said:

Funny- my wife and I were just speaking, over lunch, of how often the cells seem to dissolve as they approach our area (Hillsborough). Almost like a Bermuda Triangle for approaching strong cells at times. 

We call it the Branchburg dome here. We missed everything today by a couple miles...did get .71" since Friday though

Thunder now, but it's just to the east.

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Just finished my run outside and a lot of thunder and dark skies to the west. Pretty good storm in Somerset County but it appears it's gonna stay just to my west. Yet another miss by a few miles today. What a steambath out there ... frustrating to not get any rain out of this. 

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11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just finished my run outside and a lot of thunder and dark skies to the west. Pretty good storm in Somerset County but it appears it's gonna stay just to my west. Yet another miss by a few miles today. What a steambath out there ... frustrating to not get any rain out of this. 

Storms missing to the north, south, east and west. 

Very annoying for sure. Need more widespread clusters

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20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just finished my run outside and a lot of thunder and dark skies to the west. Pretty good storm in Somerset County but it appears it's gonna stay just to my west. Yet another miss by a few miles today. What a steambath out there ... frustrating to not get any rain out of this. 

Getting crushed now

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Storms missing to the north, south, east and west. 

Very annoying for sure. Need more widespread clusters

The storm did just make it to the extreme northern part of our County and I ended up being on the edge of it. A little brief downpour that dropped a quick tenth of an inch of rain. Obviously not enough to help very much.

As you said we need more widespread clusters, and hopefully that'll happen the next couple days. 

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6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Getting crushed now

Yeah since you're a few miles to my north I figured you were getting hit. Just on the edge of it right here. A decent amount of thunder but the downpour was too brief to give much rain. I'm glad you're finally getting hit. 

It did just start pouring here and I see some backbuilding on radar with this storm, so I'll have to see if this downpour lasts more than just a few minutes. 

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah since you're a few miles to my north I figured you were getting hit. Just on the edge of it right here. A decent amount of thunder but the downpour was too brief to give much rain. I'm glad you're finally getting hit. 

It did just start pouring here and I see some backbuilding on radar with this storm, so I'll have to see if this downpour lasts more than just a few minutes. 

Yeah it looked like it was going to stay west and I was telling people at a BBQ I think it will miss us....oops lol

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6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah it looked like it was going to stay west and I was telling people at a BBQ I think it will miss us....oops lol

LOL. Yeah I made the same mistake thinking it would miss. It appeared to be moving north when it formed, but then it drifted east. This downpour ended up being much better here. It's still coming down and we might end up getting a half inch out of it. Happy to finally get hit, but I know a lot of people in our area are still missing out. Hopefully it'll be more widespread tomorrow. 

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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June.

Unsettled weather will likely continue through Tuesday. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy.

Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 6 pm CDT included:

Austin: 103°
Brownsville: 97°
Corpus Christi: 99°
Cortulla: 110° (old record: 106°, 2012)
Del Rio: 110° (old record: 106°, 1994)
Houston: 98°
Junction: 104°
Laredo: 109° (tied record set in 1994)
Mcallen: 102°
San Angelo: 111° (old record: 105°, 1994 and 2011) ***4th time pre-2023 all-time high as been reached***
San Antonio: 102°
Victoria: 97°
Zapata: 108° (old record: 106°, 1980)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +13.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.173 today.

On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.491 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.512 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal).

 

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17 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

best case scenario: we get rid of any crapvection in the morning and a strong well organized mcs develops in pa during the afternoon

That would be amazingly ideal. When was the last time we had a regional mcs. I remember so many growing up in the late 80s early 90s! Since then… just like the Alberta clipper, gone….

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50 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be amazingly ideal. When was the last time we had a regional mcs. I remember so many growing up in the late 80s early 90s! Since then… just like the Alberta clipper, gone….

we won't know until we wake up

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