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Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion


John1122
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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think Kingsport might be one of the hottest place in E TN today.  We have to be catching some downslope somewhere.  Temps in town are ranging from 90-95F on wxunderground.  Real feel right now at my place is 97F.  Easily the hottest day of the summer here w/ worse to come later this week.

On a positive note, we got a popcorn storm that parked right over western Sullivan/eastern Hawkins yesterday.  Amounts ranged from 0.75-1.30" of much needed rainfall.  We prob got about an inch of rain IMBY.  Two blocks away - zip.  That kind of rain storm.  I was no fan of the marble size hail.  Holston will know this....not sure it even rained at the bridge into our hood.

I agree Carver...hottest day so far in Kingsport I believe. Been sitting on 96 here for the last hour or two.

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Some hints at an early start to winter in the Mountain West...or at least a very cold fall.  Lots of variability on September modeling.  The great thing about September is that average highs begin to drop quickly.  I still think we see a sharp switch to fall by mid-late September.  I could easily be wrong.  I like looking at the MW region as it can sometimes give a hint to that first truly chill fall air mass.  When the cold builds in MT, it will often slide this way(modified of course).

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97 here now.Should  see some cool down next week.Short range a strong phoon is being shown headed towards East Asia the next couple days.GFS want to take the storm into the Yellow Sea while the Euro goes into East China.Think parts of the Valley could see a big warm back up as we head towards next weekendStill seems this pattern right now we are in is fixing to get broke as we go into August,hopefully the upper 90's are done but its still summer,this stretch has most definite been the hottest we've seen this season.

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3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

The wonderful summer continues in my opinion.  Had some good rains yesterday. Today the lower humidity has been wonderful. Got a lot of my shrubs trimmed. I will take summers like this every year. It’s nice to have everything green.

Yes,i agree.Our lawn looks rather nice compared to summers past,some brown patches here and there but over all,not bad for summer.Rain chances will be on the rise as we get further into the week.Euro shows some unseasonable high PWATS as we get into the week,se we'll see.

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The new CANSIPS shows(unfortunately) endless summer through September at least with summer backing off by October.  DJF, just eyeballing, looks below normal for temps.   Typical Nino progression on the CANSIPs re: winter.  The August to early Sept heatwave is typical for Nino years.  Let’s hope the model is missing the sharp switch to fall which should occur mid-late Sept....and smoothing likely may not allow for that type of specificity. 

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The incredible summer of wet & not hot continues.  My monthly HVAC usage report for June was 98 hours less cooling than last June.  I’m thinking July will be less cooling days than last July. Said average high temp. for June was 86. Last year it was 88. 

Now hopefully winter does the opposite of predicted & gives us SNOW! 

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The rain event looks less impactful for tomorrow than originally forecast. Went from 70 percent chance down to 20 for my area. Still been a nice soaker since this morning and my tomatoes are huge with some 1lb fruits on the vine. Still not ripe but turning that corner. I should have a lot of them through August and September.

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3.47in here so far and still raining. This is the most single day rainfall in my backyard in years. I’d say probably 5 yrs at least! Today we’ve actually had more rain than we had in the entire month of June! Let that sink in for a min. I’m glad to get it though, we’ve been nickeled and dimed all summer long. Before today I think I had only 1 event with over 1in total this entire summer, so definitely needed it here!

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3 hours ago, Jed33 said:

3.47in here so far and still raining. This is the most single day rainfall in my backyard in years. I’d say probably 5 yrs at least! 

I was thinking about that earlier today, in terms of where this rainfall total ranks for me. I ended up with just over 6.00 inches today. It caused several flooding issues across Greene County today. Schools are closed tomorrow...it would have been their first full day.

It's definitely one of the largest one-day totals that I can remember. My largest total by far occurred at the same time of year in 2001 (August 3&4). I had over 14.00 inches of rain with that event, but it was actually worse in other areas. I really wish there was a reliable rainfall total from the max area in that 2001 flood. The NWS wrote this a few weeks after the event  "An unofficial gauge at Viking Mountain, located approximated 7 miles southwest of the radar-indicated maximum, measured 15.35 inches from Friday evening until Saturday morning".  That was probably one of the top 5 most memorable weather events that I've experienced. It was unbelievable how hard it rained for about 4 hours that morning. Today's flooding doesn't compare to that, but it is still a notable event.

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KHAHUN,is a pretty amazing storm,just basically stuck in no mans land with no steering current to kick it.Today the Euro shows it going into South Korea around Mid week finally,tho this could change.This pattern if this storm gets into Korea/Sea of Japan should set up a +PNA.Think we could see once again the potential for a MId Level Ridge build back up to our SW,this would give us a decent shot at MCS action as we head towards next weekend and into it.Unless the models change,we  are fixing to get possibly  into a real wet pattern in several days

'

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