jaxjagman Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Seems possibly like the the gfs is showing a possible phoon into East Asia along with maybe some TG into North America,but could be a battle ground between the Pac and Atlantic.To far out to trust any model right now.but it wouldnt surprise me as we head towards the end of the month.Nino should get cranking as we get into August.Thinking this is gonna be like winter of 2015-2016 now maybe not that extreme,could be a good late severe fall into early winter,to far out to really know ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: Very end of July into early August remains a possibility for hotter than normal. However the bias has been for those forecasts to diminish inside 10 days. Using the Bering Sea Rule recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 25 minutes ago, Spartman said: Using the Bering Sea Rule recently? I dont think what he is saying is releated to the BS,It seems to me there is a potential typhoon possibly gonna happen into parts of East Asia via a KW.Seems like to me this should build the heights up if it goes into South East China,then into Korea and Japan you could possibly see the upper and mid level ridge build into this region,this is a warm sign for us depending on the tropics this time of year..JMHO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I dont think what he is saying is releated to the BS,It seems to me there is a potential typhoon possibly gonna happen into parts of East Asia via a KW.Seems like to me this should build the heights up if it goes into South East China,then into Korea and Japan you could possibly see the upper and mid level ridge build into this region,this is a warm sign for us depending on the tropics this time of year..JMHO Early last week, there was a Bering Sea Ridge. I believe that was the first occurrence of it for this Summer. And yet, another Bering Sea Ridge is forecast to happen within a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 Seems possibly like the the gfs is showing a possible phoon into East Asia along with maybe some TG into North America,but could be a battle ground between the Pac and Atlantic.To far out to trust any model right now.but it wouldnt surprise me as we head towards the end of the month.Nino should get cranking as we get into August.Thinking this is gonna be like winter of 2015-2016 now maybe not that extreme,could be a good late severe fall into early winter,to far out to really know ATMRemind us what 15’ and 16’ winter was like? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Remind us what 15’ and 16’ winter was like? . Think thats when we had the snow dome,sure winter was crap here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 18, 2023 Author Share Posted July 18, 2023 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Remind us what 15’ and 16’ winter was like? . It was a late bloomer, but turned epic in from Mid Jan to Mid Feb. Lots of ice and snow, and even severe weather that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 18, 2023 Author Share Posted July 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Think thats when we had the snow dome,sure winter was crap here I think that was a year or two prior. You guys got rocked in Jan-Feb 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 Just now, John1122 said: I think that was a year or two prior. You guys got rocked in Jan-Feb 2016. I tried to find something,still looking,think that was the winter the Southern Plains had a major ice storm,but could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think that was a year or two prior. You guys got rocked in Jan-Feb 2016. Oh wow,you're right https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/record-breaking-snowstorm-wreaks-havoc-in-tennessee/1121498 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Oh wow,you're right https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/record-breaking-snowstorm-wreaks-havoc-in-tennessee/1121498 That not the right article but it does mention Jan 22,2016 and that winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122#:~:text=The snow total of 8,in Nashville in 28 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 18, 2023 Author Share Posted July 18, 2023 I think most of the forum region got in on it, except maybe Chattanooga and Memphis. But they may have gotten in on it too. 40 corridor and north had several events of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Parts of Middle Tennessee got 12+ from one storm in January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 I think most of the forum region got in on it, except maybe Chattanooga and Memphis. But they may have gotten in on it too. 40 corridor and north had several events of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Parts of Middle Tennessee got 12+ from one storm in January 2016.If my memory is correct, Knox County Schools we’re out for two weeks. We had 3-4 snow events during that time frame, and below freezing cold for quite a few consecutive days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Interesting updates from NOAA today re: winter. Man, if I didn't know better, I would think they are banking on a front loaded winter which is exactly opposite of my own thinking. Interesting. Precip AN for each. Please be award these will change w/ each month, so I will try to delete the post later next month. Here is the link: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 I’m at the beach in Perdido Key. Interesting occurrence for end of July. The ocean is cold. Everyone is talking about it. Even the workers are talking. No one understands why it’s cold. Which may help with red tide & hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 22, 2023 Author Share Posted July 22, 2023 Looks like I may hit 90 this week. Models are showing 91-93 but my point forecast says 89 as the max. I'd love to go a whole summer with no 90s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 I’m at the beach in Perdido Key. Interesting occurrence for end of July. The ocean is cold. Everyone is talking about it. Even the workers are talking. No one understands why it’s cold. Which may help with red tide & hurricanes?Interesting… I was at Cape San Blas a couple weeks ago and the water was bath water. I know Texas is having issues with red tide right now. Fish on the beach everywhere . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 23, 2023 Author Share Posted July 23, 2023 It may heat up this week but my high was 78 today and yesterday. Impossible to beat on July 22nd and 23rd. I guess I can deal with upper 80s because I know that we've missed two months of heat this Summer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 I dont know what the GFS is doing in East Asia,shows two strong typhoons going into South East China the next few days.One should be stronger than the other basically going into the same spot.But the Pattern is breaking down,this might even be our last warmest stretch we see as we go into August again for this summer as the MJO is seemingly going to get into the NH as we get into August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: I dont know what the GFS is doing in East Asia,shows two strong typhoons going into South East China the next few days.One should be stronger than the other basically going into the same spot.But the Pattern is breaking down,this might even be our last warmest stretch we see as we go into August again for this summer as the MJO is seemingly going to get into the NH as we get into August. I came here debating whether to post this. Ha! Ha! Glad you posted it, Jax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 9 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Interesting… I was at Cape San Blas a couple weeks ago and the water was bath water. I know Texas is having issues with red tide right now. Fish on the beach everywhere . I can’t explain it. No one could explain it. Most were like why is the ocean so cold. Even locals don’t remember it ever being that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 16 hours ago, Matthew70 said: I can’t explain it. No one could explain it. Most were like why is the ocean so cold. Even locals don’t remember it ever being that cold. Ocean temps(lakes as well) can fickle fickle fickle. Wind could have turned the ocean over and created upwelling of colder water. It could just be an oddity within ocean currents. Fishermen will often look for the seam where colder water meets warmer water...even if that seam is a vertical one and not striated horizontally. Water temps are DEFINITELY cool in that area. Interesting share. 81F water is not warm in the summer given how shallow the water is there. https://coastalwatertemperatureguide-noaa.hub.arcgis.com 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 24, 2023 Author Share Posted July 24, 2023 82.4 for the high today and it seems very hot. That's how mild this summer has been so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 John, you have been living large this summer. TRI hasn't been too bad either... Mid 90s at TRi for much of the rest of the week according to point-and-click. We have hit 90(and only 90) 6x so far this month. This "should" be the worst week of summer, but LR modeling at the end of August is showing some potential for heat spreading eastward from the Plains. That is not unexpected. My guess is that we see a sharp cold front at some point during the last third of September which just ends summer on the spot. That is not exactly "going out on a limb" as that is seasonal climatology. But after multiple Nina summers lasting well into October, that would be a welcome change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 On 7/23/2023 at 6:42 PM, Carvers Gap said: I came here debating whether to post this. Ha! Ha! Glad you posted it, Jax. Lets hope so.We can still get warm in Sept,just look at last year Nashville hit 100 in Sept,think it was Sept 21.,but even that is still rare hitting 100 in Sept,probably influence from NINA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 26, 2023 Author Share Posted July 26, 2023 Crept up to 85.1 today. Then storms fired close, but not quite over me. Got some clouds and that was it for the heating. I think we make a run on Friday to get over 90, if we don't get a well timed storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 I think Kingsport might be one of the hottest place in E TN today. We have to be catching some downslope somewhere. Temps in town are ranging from 90-95F on wxunderground. Real feel right now at my place is 97F. Easily the hottest day of the summer here w/ worse to come later this week. On a positive note, we got a popcorn storm that parked right over western Sullivan/eastern Hawkins yesterday. Amounts ranged from 0.75-1.30" of much needed rainfall. We prob got about an inch of rain IMBY. Two blocks away - zip. That kind of rain storm. I was no fan of the marble size hail. Holston will know this....not sure it even rained at the bridge into our hood. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Peaked at 89.1 so far today. Have yet to hit 90 this year but I think we will do it this week. I won't be surprised if this week is the "peak" of our summers heat. Can't complain at all about the year we have had so far. A welcome relief compared to the last few Niña springs and summers. The gears of fall are slowly beginning to turn up north. August will be hot but my favorite time of year is just around the corner! This time of year is when I always start rummaging through old winter event threads and wishing for colder days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 26, 2023 Author Share Posted July 26, 2023 I only got to 85.2 today. Currently sitting at 83.6 at 5:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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