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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


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14 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Id hate to be the guy who gets ticketed by metsfan during our ongoing snow drought :lmao:

 

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

“Did you know you were going 36 in a 35 and that I punched six holes through my bathroom wall this morning to commemorate NYC’s epic snow drought???!” 
 

“Go ahead and tell me what you were doing on the night of NYC’s last 6 inch+ snow event?”

Good afternoon SORTA22, V W. I believe if I was driving this, Anthony might, instead of a ticket, ask for a ride. As for what I was doing on the night of the last 6+ snow event. …… I was wishing I could match it. Stay well, as always ….

 

IMG_7056.png

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5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yes, I have seen that but there are huge drawbacks to injecting more S02 into any system. Mainly we are the water planet and S02 will form sulfuric acid leading to acid rain, so that is not a plan we can do on the large scale. The best would be to continue to decarbonize and figure out a way again to make the carbon solid and bury it. We have yet to fully figure out a way to do so. But we do have more than enough studies showing biofuels are feasible (but then converting more land to agriculture could prove problematic). That's not even talking about the biodiversity crisis, etc.  The pesticides you mention are a problem and the herbicides like glyphosate too. 

Yes, it looks like we are getting screwed from multiple directions.

I'd like the laser powered herbicides to be used more, since that is a great nonchemical solution that has no side effects.

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Human activity is mimicking the powerful natural atmospheric changes brought on by the largest flood basalt eruptions. Look up the Siberian Traps which ushered in the Permian Mass Extinction and came very close to sterilizing the planet. This occurred due to absolutely monstrous CO2 gas release sustained over many thousands of years, as these eruptions are beyond any human comprehension. They dwarf VEI 8 explosive eruptions like Yellowstone (last was 1,000-1,500 cubic kilometers of volume). Flood basalt eruptions are 100,000+ cubic kilometers, sustaining at an enormously high yearly rate of effusion. They’re major players of global climate change and are often responsible for some of the warmest excursions our planet has seen.  The earth has “tools” to recover from these excursions, but they too take many, many millennia in order to scrub CO2 and bring global temps back down. I can only say continuing mass deforestation is catastrophically short sighted on our part, and couldn’t be more antithetical to what we should be doing right now. I understand all the ways modern society depends on lumber, but we need to figure it out - fast. 

The earth hasn’t seen a flood basalt event since the Columbia River Basalts about 16mya, and as you can probably tell they’re extremely rare from a human perspective. They’re believed to often be the birth of a new hotspot as an enormous mantle plume pushes toward the surface and forces out spectacular amounts of freshly melted magma as the plume pushes into the crust. And with all that melted rock comes all that exsolved gas, CO2 chief among them. And yes, the hotspot that caused the CRB in the PNW is very likely the hotspot powering Yellowstone presently, albeit in a reduced capacity.

Human activity is mimicking a flood basalt event, except at an even more rapid rate. They take thousands of years generally to have the kind of impact we’ve seen in a hundred. Short of catastrophic instantaneous events like asteroid impacts, we have to be the fastest instance of major climate change in the geologic record. 

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2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Human activity is mimicking the powerful natural atmospheric changes brought on by the largest flood basalt eruptions. Look up the Siberian Traps which ushered in the Permian Mass Extinction and came very close to sterilizing the planet. This occurred due to absolutely monstrous CO2 gas release sustained over many thousands of years, as these eruptions are beyond any human comprehension. They dwarf VEI 8 explosive eruptions like Yellowstone (last was 1,000-1,500 cubic kilometers of volume). Flood basalt eruptions are 100,000+ cubic kilometers, sustaining at an enormously high yearly rate of effusion. They’re major players of global climate change and are often responsible for some of the warmest excursions our planet has seen.  The earth has “tools” to recover from these excursions, but they too take many, many millennia in order to scrub CO2 and bring global temps back down 

The earth hasn’t seen a flood basalt event since the Columbia River Basalts about 16mya, and as you can probably tell they’re extremely rare from a human perspective. They’re believed to often be the birth of a new hotspot as an enormous mantle plume pushes toward the surface and forces out spectacular amounts of freshly melted magma as the plume pushes into the crust. And with all that melted rock comes all that exsolved gas, CO2 chief among them. 

Human activity is mimicking a flood basalt event, except at an even more rapid rate. They take thousands of years generally to have the kind of impact we’ve seen in a hundred. Short of catastrophic instantaneous events like asteroid impacts, we have to be the fastest instance of major climate change in the geologic record. 

Do you think humanity will eventually develop the power to stop volcanic eruptions and earthquakes of this magnitude and scale? Something I have wondered about.

I know we have already been testing methods of stopping extinction level asteroids.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think humanity will eventually develop the power to stop volcanic eruptions and earthquakes of this magnitude and scale? Something I have wondered about.

I know we have already been testing methods of stopping extinction level asteroids.

Asteroids, yes. Comparatively little involved when you’re talking about crashing an expendable craft into an asteroid to slightly bump it off course. The whole reason it works is because even large asteroids need merely a slight adjustment to their course to no longer threaten an impact, the precision of orbital trajectories is so high for something to actually hit the earth comparatively little is required to make them miss.

But earthquakes and volcanism? Eh, not for a very, very long time IMHO. The sheer scale and forces involved suggests a task that’s well beyond our capabilities, and I’m not really sure what would move the needle there enough to ever really be a plausible thing we’re capable of. The earth is powerful, man.
 

Consider something like Yellowstone. It has a massive, stale rhyolitic magma chamber that exists as a sort of “crystal mush” with a low percentage of fluidized magma. What would then change that into an eruptable state is an injection of hot, fresh, basalt from deep below into the asthenosphere. That then begins the process of re-melting the rhyolitic  mush and can ultimately lead to a very quick, and very enormous instability that leads to an eruption. The forces involved here are almost beyond comprehension (heat, pressure, etc). I don’t have the foggiest idea how we would realistically halt or block that process. Perhaps in much smaller systems first, but I would suggest that’s a long way away, realistically - if it’s even plausible. 

The same applies to earthquakes. Take a subduction zone where the continental slab is riding over an oceanic plate, and is slowly being bent backward building up absurd levels of strain over time. That eventually has to snap and yield a megathrust quake, how would we even conceivably stop that without shutting down plate tectonics? Plates move a couple to a few centimeters a year, and the byproduct of that movement (force by way of strain) is probably not something we could ever circumvent IMHO. 

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52 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Asteroids, yes. Comparatively little involved when you’re talking about crashing an expendable craft into an asteroid to slightly bump it off course. The whole reason it works is because even large asteroids need merely a slight adjustment to their course to no longer threaten an impact, the precision of orbital trajectories is so high for something to actually hit the earth comparatively little is required to make them miss.

But earthquakes and volcanism? Eh, not for a very, very long time IMHO. The sheer scale and forces involved suggests a task that’s well beyond our capabilities, and I’m not really sure what would move the needle there enough to ever really be a plausible thing we’re capable of. The earth is powerful, man.
 

Consider something like Yellowstone. It has a massive, stale rhyolitic magma chamber that exists as a sort of “crystal mush” with a low percentage of fluidized magma. What would then change that into an eruptable state is an injection of hot, fresh, basalt from deep below into the asthenosphere. That then begins the process of re-melting the rhyolitic crystal mush and can ultimately lead to a very quick, and very enormous instability that leads to an eruption. The forces involved here are almost beyond comprehension (heat, pressure, etc). I don’t have the foggiest idea how we would realistically halt or block that process. Perhaps in much smaller systems first, but I would suggest that’s a long way away, realistically - if it’s even plausible. 

The same applies to earthquakes. Take a subduction zone where the continental slab is riding over an oceanic plate, and is slowly being bent backward building up absurd levels of strain over time. That eventually has to snap and yield a megathrust quake, how would we even conceivably stop that without shutting down plate tectonics? Plates move a couple to a few centimeters a year, and the byproduct of that movement (force by way of strain) is probably not something we could ever circumvent IMHO. 

On the level of extinction level events, the fact that we are here today at all is a testimony to the resilience of life in recovering after such cataclysmic events!  Perhaps the true answer to the Fermi Paradox is that we were lucky enough to be born on a planet that is stable enough to allow evolution to progress far enough to allow us to be born.  Maybe most other habitable worlds just aren't this stable for this long and life doesn't get beyond a very simple, maybe even microbial level?

 

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38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

On the level of extinction level events, the fact that we are here today at all is a testimony to the resilience of life in recovering after such cataclysmic events!  Perhaps the true answer to the Fermi Paradox is that we were lucky enough to be born on a planet that is stable enough to allow evolution to progress far enough to allow us to be born.  Maybe most other habitable worlds just aren't this stable for this long and life doesn't get beyond a very simple, maybe even microbial level?

 

The more you learn about the earth, geological processes, and all of the extinction events throughout geologic time, the crazier and crazier it becomes that we’re here at all. 

We wouldn’t be if not for that single asteroid impact to end the Cretaceous; whatever life would look like today, it wouldn’t be “us” as we know it. Perhaps “we’d” be some bipedal, large brained offshoot of therapods, but in the same token dinosaurs ruled for over a hundred million years and there wasn’t exactly tremendous evolutionary pressure for them to evolve hyper intelligence. Who knows?

The fact that we owe our existence to an extremely low probability catastrophically large impact event (10-15km wide, insane) that just happened to hit during the Deccan Traps flood basalt eruption (the combination all but ensuring a global reset to the biosphere) is just an incomprehensible level of chance. And that’s only one component that paved the way for our existence…

The more I learn the more I agree that if life is common out there, it’s far more common within relatively stable planetary oceans like what exists on Europa, than on an open air rocky body with active plate tectonics. It seems easier for life to proliferate unharmed in that environment, though it would be very different to life on earth. Or would it resemble aquatic life as we know it, especially abyssal lifeforms? I sure as hell want to find out within my lifetime. 

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Btw, Chicxulub was believed to have caused magnitude 10+ earthquakes that persisted for months. Whatever dinosaurs survived the thermal radiation spreading through the troposphere immediately following the impact would’ve had a very bad time. 

Impact events of that size are mind breaking. Genuinely can’t even imagine what it would’ve been like be alive the day it hit. Likely, wouldn’t be alive for very long, but I’d still love to see the show for however long I could. 

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@LibertyBell

This is a spectacular summary of the Chicxulub impact and what we know about it. I’ve read through this several times and still always come back to it. Keep clicking through to each page as you get to the bottom (the formatting is a little not obvious). 
 

https://www.lpi.usra.edu/science/kring/Chicxulub/regional-effects/

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55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

On the level of extinction level events, the fact that we are here today at all is a testimony to the resilience of life in recovering after such cataclysmic events!  Perhaps the true answer to the Fermi Paradox is that we were lucky enough to be born on a planet that is stable enough to allow evolution to progress far enough to allow us to be born.  Maybe most other habitable worlds just aren't this stable for this long and life doesn't get beyond a very simple, maybe even microbial level?

 

The Fermi paradox is quite separate from the life emergence question.

Life on earth seems to have started at least 2 billion years ago, possibly as soon as the oceans cooled to less than bathtub temperature. Even if it then took a couple of billion years for life to evolve enough to get vertebrates such as fishes, reptiles and birds, that still left a half billion years of life getting periodically hit by stuff such as the Permian extinction, much more devastating than the more modest Chicxulub event. So life on earth was puttering along for ages with no indication whatever of any industrial intelligence emerging until now, and even here the drive was for stasis, as the Chinese and Roman empires showed. 

The cultural revolution that led to our current industrial society reflects the combination of the European religious upheavals and the brutal fighting that it produced so that industrial muscle and understanding became a critical national asset. Imho, that combination was essential to drive our world to where it is today, reaching out to the other planets and listening for other aliens with  intelligence. 

On that basis, the past 500 years of human development should be seen as a one in a million event in the past 500 million years of complex life on earth.

There are, at a guess,  maybe a thousand planets with earth like characteristics within a thousand light years of earth, so we have maybe one chance in a thousand that their time of having an intelligent industrial civilization overlaps with ours. Fermi's paradox really isn't one, it seems.

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26 minutes ago, etudiant said:

The Fermi paradox is quite separate from the life emergence question.

Life on earth seems to have started at least 2 billion years ago, possibly as soon as the oceans cooled to less than bathtub temperature. Even if it then took a couple of billion years for life to evolve enough to get vertebrates such as fishes, reptiles and birds, that still left a half billion years of life getting periodically hit by stuff such as the Permian extinction, much more devastating than the more modest Chicxulub event. So life on earth was puttering along for ages with no indication whatever of any industrial intelligence emerging until now, and even here the drive was for stasis, as the Chinese and Roman empires showed. 

The cultural revolution that led to our current industrial society reflects the combination of the European religious upheavals and the brutal fighting that it produced so that industrial muscle and understanding became a critical national asset. Imho, that combination was essential to drive our world to where it is today, reaching out to the other planets and listening for other aliens with  intelligence. 

On that basis, the past 500 years of human development should be seen as a one in a million event in the past 500 million years of complex life on earth.

There are, at a guess,  maybe a thousand planets with earth like characteristics within a thousand light years of earth, so we have maybe one chance in a thousand that their time of having an intelligent industrial civilization overlaps with ours. Fermi's paradox really isn't one, it seems.

Good post, but just would offer the perspective that the Permian Great Dying happened across many millennia whereas Chicxulub happened on a single day (with respect to the primary forcing element). Two different processes, one acute and one chronic. Both were catastrophic though. 

Life is lucky to have survived the Permian though, earth was close to sterilized. 

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51 minutes ago, etudiant said:

The Fermi paradox is quite separate from the life emergence question.

Life on earth seems to have started at least 2 billion years ago, possibly as soon as the oceans cooled to less than bathtub temperature. Even if it then took a couple of billion years for life to evolve enough to get vertebrates such as fishes, reptiles and birds, that still left a half billion years of life getting periodically hit by stuff such as the Permian extinction, much more devastating than the more modest Chicxulub event. So life on earth was puttering along for ages with no indication whatever of any industrial intelligence emerging until now, and even here the drive was for stasis, as the Chinese and Roman empires showed. 

The cultural revolution that led to our current industrial society reflects the combination of the European religious upheavals and the brutal fighting that it produced so that industrial muscle and understanding became a critical national asset. Imho, that combination was essential to drive our world to where it is today, reaching out to the other planets and listening for other aliens with  intelligence. 

On that basis, the past 500 years of human development should be seen as a one in a million event in the past 500 million years of complex life on earth.

There are, at a guess,  maybe a thousand planets with earth like characteristics within a thousand light years of earth, so we have maybe one chance in a thousand that their time of having an intelligent industrial civilization overlaps with ours. Fermi's paradox really isn't one, it seems.

I'm trying to find the likelihood of other intelligent life developing, our planet has other intelligent life on it besides humans after all.  Octopus, elephants, dolphins, African Grey Parrots are all quite sentient, have learned how to use tools and have complex language, empathy and even bury and mourn their dead.  Ravens understand the concept of past and future and understand their reflections are actually reflections.  African greys can do math and understand the concept of zero (something it took humans thousands of years to comprehend.)  Octopus build settlements on the seafloor and use tools to escape enclosures.  The  religious and philosophical aspects of what you're talking about are quite different; we don't know if those species I listed have that but it's quite possible they might (since, after all, they bury their dead and return to the same site year after year to mourn them.)  Hell, some of these species even create art for its own sake.  Nature is quite miraculous and we are merely a part of it.

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27 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Good post, but just would offer the perspective that the Permian Great Dying happened across many millennia whereas Chicxulub happened on a single day (with respect to the primary forcing element). Two different processes, one acute and one chronic. Both were catastrophic though. 

Life is lucky to have survived the Permian though, earth was close to sterilized. 

The K-T event cannot be minimized, the earth was completely cut off from sunlight for 6 months-- it killed 75% of all life on the planet.   And we whine after a few days without sunlight, can you imagine 6 months of total darkness all over the planet?  Yes, the Permian event killed more, 90%-- but they are ranked #1 and #2 in the six mass extinction events this planet has faced.  Humanity has created the sixth all on its own.

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The more you learn about the earth, geological processes, and all of the extinction events throughout geologic time, the crazier and crazier it becomes that we’re here at all. 

We wouldn’t be if not for that single asteroid impact to end the Cretaceous; whatever life would look like today, it wouldn’t be “us” as we know it. Perhaps “we’d” be some bipedal, large brained offshoot of therapods, but in the same token dinosaurs ruled for over a hundred million years and there wasn’t exactly tremendous evolutionary pressure for them to evolve hyper intelligence. Who knows?

The fact that we owe our existence to an extremely low probability catastrophically large impact event (10-15km wide, insane) that just happened to hit during the Deccan Traps flood basalt eruption (the combination all but ensuring a global reset to the biosphere) is just an incomprehensible level of chance. And that’s only one component that paved the way for our existence…

The more I learn the more I agree that if life is common out there, it’s far more common within relatively stable planetary oceans like what exists on Europa, than on an open air rocky body with active plate tectonics. It seems easier for life to proliferate unharmed in that environment, though it would be very different to life on earth. Or would it resemble aquatic life as we know it, especially abyssal lifeforms? I sure as hell want to find out within my lifetime. 

What I find fascinating is that dinosaurs were already evolving to two legged warm blooded large brained creatures who took care of their young.  Their brains were already experiencing massive growth-- and the last few generations of dinosaurs were as intelligent as many of the creatures I mentioned in a previous post.  Raptors were quite social and hunted in packs, just like modern wild dogs do, so they were probably as intelligent as them.

There were even dinosaurs that looked like parrots and were as colorful-- and some say the dinosaurs never died out, they live on as birds and if that's the case, African Grey Parrots, Ravens and Magpies are all --extremely-- intelligent, all rated as having the intelligence of a 7 year old human child by biologists.

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The K-T event cannot be minimized, the earth was completely cut off from sunlight for 6 months-- it killed 75% of all life on the planet.   And we whine after a few days without sunlight, can you imagine 6 months of total darkness all over the planet?  Yes, the Permian event killed more, 90%-- but they are ranked #1 and #2 in the six mass extinction events this planet has faced.  Humanity has created the sixth all on its own.

The Great Dying, mass extinction, asteroids.  Man do we need a storm to track, and fast.

(edit:  he says respectfully and in good fun)

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15 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@LibertyBell

This is a spectacular summary of the Chicxulub impact and what we know about it. I’ve read through this several times and still always come back to it. Keep clicking through to each page as you get to the bottom (the formatting is a little not obvious). 
 

https://www.lpi.usra.edu/science/kring/Chicxulub/regional-effects/

I have been following this Australian guy on YouTube who has some great research on some recent large impacts. One in the Indian Ocean that produced a huge tsunami that affected the topography of southern Australia and another possible one in the Mediterranean that affected the Sahara. So large impacts may be more common than previously thought. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have been following this Australian guy on YouTube who has some great research on some recent large impacts. One in the Indian Ocean that produced a huge tsunami that affected the topography of southern Australia and another possible one in the Mediterranean that affected the Sahara. So large impacts may be more common than previously thought. 

That's wild but makes sense because 70% of the earth's surface is covered by oceans so there's probably a lot of these large craters we haven't discovered yet.

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have been following this Australian guy on YouTube who has some great research on some recent large impacts. One in the Indian Ocean that produced a huge tsunami that affected the topography of southern Australia and another possible one in the Mediterranean that affected the Sahara. So large impacts may be more common than previously thought. 

The Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis is sobering because about 12kya we were probably close to an extinction level event (large comet airburst and fell as fragments instead of intact), but that theory is very contentious and isn’t necessary to explain the YD as a climate excursion. Still, it’s crazy to think about even just as a thought exercise. From the evidence I saw personally, I do think something fell around that timeframe, though it may not have been quite as large as the hypothesis puts forward and I don’t believe it caused the YD - perhaps was responsible for a wonky several year pulse within it if anything.

Tunguska was about 40m of diameter away from being a landfalling superbolide, supposedly they’re more likely to stay together at the 100m diameter mark. It also caused a monstrously powerful explosion that had some level of ignition in the immediate locale, along with a flash that was capable of blinding people who were unfortunate enough not to look away in time. Fortunately it fell in a very remote section of Siberia (actually fell on one of the main outcrops of Siberian Traps flood basalt).

I agree that impact events of small to moderate size are really not as rare as we tend to think they are, and many of the 1km+ events are likely hidden by ocean impacts (hypothetical Shiva crater comes to mind). 

Just not something we can expect on human timescales, yet we had Chelyabinsk in 2013 which was a substantial 20m airburst. And Tunguska close to merely one lifetime earlier at 60m. These are events that could cause major damage were they to occur over a city, especially at Tunguska size. Apparently they (Tunguska class) may recur roughly every 200-2000 years, difficult to know for sure. That’s certainly not that rare for a potential city catastrophe. 

Also the Eocene was notable for having many 1km+ impacts IIRC. Yeah idk, this stuff is fascinating. I too wonder how many impacts we simply are unaware of due to the location of impact. We only recently discovered the Chesapeake impact event 33mya, and that was a big one. Nobody on the east coast would’ve enjoyed that one. And the area today is shaped the way it is because of that impact. 

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51 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis is sobering because about 12kya we were probably close to an extinction level event (large comet airburst and fell as fragments instead of intact), but that theory is very contentious and isn’t necessary to explain the YD as a climate excursion. Still, it’s crazy to think about even just as a thought exercise. From the evidence I saw personally, I do think something fell around that timeframe, though it may not have been quite as large as the hypothesis puts forward and I don’t believe it caused the YD - perhaps was responsible for a wonky several year pulse within it if anything.

Tunguska was about 40m of diameter away from being a landfalling superbolide, supposedly they’re more likely to stay together at the 100m diameter mark. It also caused a monstrously powerful explosion that had some level of ignition in the immediate locale, along with a flash that was capable of blinding people who were unfortunate enough not to look away in time. Fortunately it fell in a very remote section of Siberia (actually fell on one of the main outcrops of Siberian Traps flood basalt).

I agree that impact events of small to moderate size are really not as rare as we tend to think they are, and many of the 1km+ events are likely hidden by ocean impacts (hypothetical Shiva crater comes to mind). 

Just not something we can expect on human timescales, yet we had Chelyabinsk in 2013 which was a substantial 20m airburst. And Tunguska close to merely one lifetime earlier at 60m. These are events that could cause major damage were they to occur over a city, especially at Tunguska size. Apparently they (Tunguska class) may recur roughly every 200-2000 years, difficult to know for sure. That’s certainly not that rare for a potential city catastrophe. 

Also the Eocene was notable for having many 1km+ impacts IIRC. Yeah idk, this stuff is fascinating. I too wonder how many impacts we simply are unaware of due to the location of impact. We only recently discovered the Chesapeake impact event 33mya, and that was a big one. Nobody on the east coast would’ve enjoyed that one. And the area today is shaped the way it is because of that impact. 

Do you know why, with all our technology, we might not be able to prevent an impact?  Asteroids coming in from sunside like Chelyabinsk completely blindsiding us.  Have you seen the videos of that event?  Both amazing and scary at the same time--thousands of people injured when windows got blown in or out and it really was blindingly bright as it streaked across the skies.  We were all looking out for an asteroid coming in from the other side at the same time and it snuck up on us.

 

 

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52 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:


So the science is settled then. And while I don’t appreciate your tone it is indicative of those in your community who broadly paint people with my viewpoint in a negative light as being naïve or just plain stupid. While majority consensus doesn’t make something true I do take comfort in knowing that there are many scientists who disagree with your premise.

You believe that money doesn’t influence outcomes, that is naïve, in the 60’s cigarette companies paid doctors to say it’s ok for pregnant women to smoke. I really don’t know why I bother engaging in these conversations as they never produce any fruit. You believe In your religion and I will believe in mine. And one more thing, I won’t be bullied by the likes of you or anyone anywhere.

And you want me to believe that 0.04% of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is the engine that’s driving “global warming” is absurd.


.

:weenie:

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The cigarette companies are the oil companies, the doctors are propoganda news outlets, and the babies in the womb are the idiots who can’t connect dots that are in a straight line. Probably because their mom was dumb enough to smoke while pregnant. 

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