Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[rclab]

On 11/5/2023 at 7:27 PM, Will - Rutgers said:

the giants are not a football team so much as an avatar of dread.  they are the flashlight losing battery power in the deep dark forest.  they are the first night in your apartment after she leaves you.  they are a reminder that not only is there no hope, but that you are the fool for having hope in the first place.  they are the GFS of sports.

Good morning Will. A shadowy figure was seen hanging a sign, with the following verse, over the parking lot entrance to Met Life Stadium. 
“Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch’nitrate”  Stay well, as always ……

[STORMANLI]

11 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning Will. A shadowy figure was seen hanging a sign, with the following verse, over the parking lot entrance to Met Life Stadium. 
“Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch’nitrate”  Stay well, as always ……

Evening rclab,

Excellent reference from Dante's Inferno.

Be well

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Extremely boring time to be weather enthusiast. Hopefully with the developing nino we have storms to track soon, regardless if it’s rain. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Extremely boring time to be weather enthusiast. Hopefully with the developing nino we have storms to track soon, regardless if it’s rain. 

Autumn is usually boring 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Autumn is usually boring 

Some of the best nor’easters and apps runner of all time were in November. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/25/2023 at 1:17 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Will be in Iceland starting Sunday. Last year we hiked Fagradalsfjall volcano and saw the fresh lava flow fields. This specific volcanic system was dormant for 8,000 years before it woke up in 2020; pretty crazy. Volcanic activity on the Reykjanes peninsula goes in cycles with the last having been during the Middle Ages, though Fagradalsfjall itself was dormant for far longer. 
 

Well it appears to be waking up for yet another eruption (it’s popped off three times now since waking up), as this looks to be the start of yet another intrusion that began with a 4.6 quake in the area last night and now a notable swarm today which could be magma beginning to break for the surface:
 

https://watchers.news/2023/10/25/intense-earthquake-swarm-near-fagradalsfjall-volcano-iceland/

 

At the volcanic cone from 2021 and viewing the freshly cooled flow fields during our trip last year. 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

We were supposed to stay a night at the end of our trip at the Northern Lights Inn, which is within a mile from Blue Lagoon! Crazy story, just been getting back and adjusted and I was going to post about the trip and this whole experience. 
 

it’s a very serious situation, a sill formed in the area of Grindavik / Blue Lagoon in a system that hasn’t erupted in 800 years. It’s a much spicier system than the gentle, tourist friendly Fagradalsfjall. It could erupt very fast and very powerfully with high effusion rates, and both Blue Lagoon and Grindavik are very much in real danger. 

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

We were supposed to stay a night at the end of our trip at the Northern Lights Inn, which is within a mile from Blue Lagoon! Crazy story, just been getting back and adjusted and I was going to post about the trip and this whole experience. 
 

it’s a very serious situation, a sill formed in the area of Grindavik / Blue Lagoon in a system that hasn’t erupted in 800 years. It’s a much spicier system than the gentle, tourist friendly Fagradalsfjall. It could erupt very fast and very powerfully with high effusion rates, and both Blue Lagoon and Grindavik are very much in real danger. 

Just read an article about it and was wondering if our resident expert was back and would post.

[Volcanic Winter]

Some pics of our amazing trip:

 

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

On 11/10/2023 at 6:26 AM, MJO812 said:

Autumn is usually boring 

But can get some nice weather...

[Dark Star]

The  average Atlantic hurricane season spawns 5.9 canes, this year we got 7 to date.

The average major hurricanes is 3,  and we have received 3 to date.  

So even though the water has been warmer, it looks like we are going to wind up slightly above average?  Unless that is, that the warmer water extends the season?

[Brian5671]

On 11/11/2023 at 9:41 AM, Volcanic Winter said:

Some pics of our amazing trip:

 

 

 

 

Nice.  Almost 2 yrs since my trip there-would love to go back some day-the time change was brutal combined with the winter darkness-my brain had no idea when it was time to be awake...

[Dark Star]

On 10/29/2023 at 11:57 AM, Maureen said:

Vaguely!

Before Superstorm Sandy, I always remember somebody turning the heat switch off right after Labor Day...

[Juliancolton]

8 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

was there a particular reason people are weenie'ing forky i mean is that result on the table here or not

[forkyfork]

  

8 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

was there a particular reason people are weenie'ing forky i mean is that result on the table here or not

they can't weenie carbon dioxide 

[rclab]

45 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

 

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

  

they can't weenie carbon dioxide 

‘Indeed’ ……. As always …….

 

[IrishRob17]

There's a couple members in here that must work for Oscar Mayer with the amount of weenies they throw out on a daily basis.

[HailMan06]

The USDA released their new plant hardiness zone map and almost everyone moved up a whole zone.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/17/2023-plant-hardiness-map

https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/pages/map-downloads

[Dark Star]

On 11/15/2023 at 10:14 AM, rclab said:

 

‘Indeed’ ……. As always …….

 

I think they left out cows?

[donsutherland1]

On 11/8/2023 at 10:32 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Annual public service announcement: Beware of long-range maps (especially those calling for cold and snow) and proclamations of imminent sudden or major stratospheric warming events on social media. Beyond two weeks, the maps have little skill. Beyond 7-10 days, forecasts for stratospheric warming events also have low skill.

Continuing the illustration of how extended range models can fluctuate a lot over long timeframes, below is the latest CFSv2 forecast for November 22-28. Last week, it featured widespread warmth (a reversal from earlier). This week it features cool anomalies in much of Canada, parts of the Plains States, and the northeastern U.S.:

[Stormlover74]

[Volcanic Winter]

On 11/18/2023 at 7:41 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I’ll take and feel guilty about it later. 

[Volcanic Winter]

On 11/17/2023 at 4:15 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the illustration of how extended range models can fluctuate a lot over long timeframes, below is the latest CFSv2 forecast for November 22-28. Last week, it featured widespread warmth (a reversal from earlier). This week it features cool anomalies in much of Canada, parts of the Plains States, and the northeastern U.S.:

It’s okay Don, going forward we’ll simply say, “the next two weeks will either be warm or cold depending upon the type and quantity of booze each imbibed prior to its run.” 
 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

https://watchers.news/2023/11/20/major-eruption-at-ulawun-volcano-triggers-highest-alert-level-ash-reaches-15-km-50-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/
 

Ulawun having a rather impressive sub-plinian burp apparently. It just did a VEI 4 a few years ago, so seems to be in a more active phase. With that said I don’t know tons about this specific volcano aside from it being a major SO2 emitter and on the Decade volcano list (supposedly the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, but I’ve always thought that list is very incomplete and with some questionable choices, likely based more on availability of funds / access for study than true risk - but Ulawun is a dangerous one). 
 

I’ll update if anything significant comes out of this. 
 

 

Substantial ash column. There’s only a bit of info at present but my very quick guesstimation would have this as a VEI 3, but depends on the duration and whatnot. 
 

Update: The ash column was revised up to 18km from 15, that’s pretty substantial. Still sub-plinian by technical classification (plinian is supposed to be 20km+), but a pretty powerful outburst. Info is still a bit sparse (I’m mainly curious about duration because that has the most impact on how big this eruption was, a small VEI 4 at the high side is perhaps plausible like Shiveluch earlier in the year). 

Update 2: Wow, this is pretty impressive. This really does look like a 4 now.

 

[Dark Star]

On 11/20/2023 at 12:24 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

https://watchers.news/2023/11/20/major-eruption-at-ulawun-volcano-triggers-highest-alert-level-ash-reaches-15-km-50-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/
 

Ulawun having a rather impressive sub-plinian burp apparently. It just did a VEI 4 a few years ago, so seems to be in a more active phase. With that said I don’t know tons about this specific volcano aside from it being a major SO2 emitter and on the Decade volcano list (supposedly the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, but I’ve always thought that list is very incomplete and with some questionable choices, likely based more on availability of funds / access for study than true risk - but Ulawun is a dangerous one). 
 

I’ll update if anything significant comes out of this. 
 

 

Substantial ash column. There’s only a bit of info at present but my very quick guesstimation would have this as a VEI 3, but depends on the duration and whatnot. 
 

Update: The ash column was revised up to 18km from 15, that’s pretty substantial. Still sub-plinian by technical classification (plinian is supposed to be 20km+), but a pretty powerful outburst. Info is still a bit sparse (I’m mainly curious about duration because that has the most impact on how big this eruption was, a small VEI 4 at the high side is perhaps plausible like Shiveluch earlier in the year). 

Since it is southern hemisphere, no real effect on our weather (regardless of heights/content)?

[Volcanic Winter]

36 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Since it is southern hemisphere, no real effect on our weather (regardless of heights/content)?

Too small even if a large VEI 4. It’s basaltic to andesitic (andesite is usually pretty stinky), so if Ulawun ever did a mid VEI 5 it may be different. For reference Soufriere in the Caribbean did a moderate VEI 4 in 2021 and outputted about .4Mt of sulfur. El Chichon in the 80’s was a small to moderate VEI 5 and erupted through anhydrite (making it very stinky for the size) and did about 7Mt of sulfur. Pinatubo 91 was the perfect climate disruptor being big enough to reach VEI 6 classification while also being a gassy eruption; it did ~20Mt. So yeah VEI 4’s like this year’s Shiveluch doesn’t really move the needle on climate impacts.  

And conventional wisdom is that the worst volcanic effects stay in the hemisphere of the eruption. But there are examples of that not always being the case, and honestly you guys that know atmospheric physics can probably answer this better than I can. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Here’s a very far away shot of Bezymianny doing a St Helen’s like small VEI 5 in the 1950’s. This, like St Helen’s generally isn’t big enough for climate impacts that are actually detectable and identifiable as from volcanic aerosols, and look at how monstrous this is. 

[Dark Star]

The most gentlest 2 inches of rain ever?

[donsutherland1]

Today will be the 648th consecutive day on which New York City has not seen an inch or more of daily snowfall. That exceeds the previous record by 265 days, which ties the record for the largest margin by which this sorry record has been broken.

[rclab]

4 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

hey rclab i would appreciate it when you reply to me this time if you include a picture of what bird reminds you most of me.  i don't think you will say turkey despite the holiday pun and easy laugh factor.  pigeon would be too low rent.  my guess might be mockingbird if that is not conceited of me to say so

my answer for you is blue heron

the chessmaster of air and water

Good morning Will. If the forum members are up to it after yesterday’s feast , this could end up as a non-weather related contest. My selection is the cassowary, photo below. As always ……