Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A Nod toward the GFS….

In a sense, yes....at least late in the game....but we need it to not gain so much latitude earlier on.

On the plus side....Reggie is trying to go full GFS at 18z...huge shift. Too bad it's not 2015 when it never missed a hanging curve.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie ia quite the thump before it gets marginal in spots. 

 

We need a weenie 500 vort lobe extension to the ESE of this thing to help with the WCB. I hate these bowling ball looks when it's trying to shoot west. It just takes the dynamics with it.

[Kitz Craver]

Have you been using wet wipes? We need a nasty Scooter Streak right about now…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Zee german is warmer and nw…recovered from his 12z cooler.

[Allsnow]

Daddy euro or gfs? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Zee german is warmer and nw…recovered from his 12z cooler.

Still on the colder side of guidance. Never really changes over north of CT/MA border. 

[kdxken]

National weather service has an inch of slop for this area. Oh boy!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

National weather service has an inch of slop for this area. Oh boy!

That seams really conservative for your area though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's easy to assume a Euro solution ... but that's conditioning from what I sense here.    Least outcome relative to desire is an emotive response based on a troubled childhood. lol

I don't see a lot of analytics that supports a Euro solution ( necessarily) over the GFS, other than an unrelenting season impassioned by torments and maddening results leading the way... Hence the conditioning.

Can't say I blame anyone...

100% my sentiment. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Its projection of frustration under the veil of humor.

Bingo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we get the 00z Friday and the NAM is the warmest piece of guidance in the mid levels, then I will capitulate. 

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That seams really conservative for your area though. 

[Kitz Craver]

Am I getting called in for snow removal Saturday AM? Now THAT is the question burning on everyone’s mind… I know, fascinating indeed.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bingo.

It's pretty clear by saying "At least Ray promised us 40" that was a joke. Too many dirty diapers??

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's pretty clear by saying "At least Ray promised us 40" that was a joke. Too many dirty diapers??

 

I’ve already told everyone to expect a repeat of Mar ‘56. 
 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yea I’d fade that map right now unless all colder guidance cave. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's pretty clear by saying "At least Ray promised us 40" that was a joke. Too many dirty diapers??

 

I guess I don't see what this system likely sucking for you has to do with how much you end up with in March. I made it clear precip type issues would be prevalent across the southern half of the region due to MJO-7 WAR...IOW, I have my eggs in later baskets for region wide big snows.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve already told everyone to expect a repeat of Mar ‘56. 
 

I knew that would grind his gears. 

And yeah, you did. Beers on me next GTG if that happens. I'll buy a few cans of Tab for Ray.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess I don't see what this system likely sucking for you has to do with how much you end up with in March. I made it clear precip type issues would be prevalent across the southern half of the region due to MJO-7 WAR...IOW, I have my eggs in late baskets for region wide snows.

It was more to illicit a response. AKA busting balls. Hopefully I don't get banned for saying balls.

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Solid look. I think extreme Northeast MA into far SE NH gonna have BL issues throughout. Take em down. Snow profiles but with really poor ratios.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I’d fade that map right now unless all colder guidance cave. 

Yea, I like gradients, but numbers are conservative right now, which is course of least regret for then..I get it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Solid look. I think extreme Northeast MA into far SE NH gonna have BL issues. Take em down. Snow profiles but with really poor ratios.

Yea, I had a more east-west gradient inside of 128 and 495 up there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was more to illicit a response. AKA busting balls. Hopefully I don't get banned for saying balls.

Hey, if we get to mid March and its still like this, bust away.

[dryslot]

Snow is serious business.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess to me, it was like breaking the balls of someone who thought the Sox would be great, in spring training.

[tavwtby]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still on the colder side of guidance. Never really changes over north of CT/MA border. 

think my area has a shot at staying all frozen through Sat afternoon?

[weathafella]

Gfs doubling down.

[dryslot]

18z GFS is a tic or two north of 12z, Gets squeezed east in the later panels once it hits the block.

[CoastalWx]

GFS looks fairly similar to 12z imo.

[Modfan2]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still on the colder side of guidance. Never really changes over north of CT/MA border. 

So is it a ping fest for us south of the border after a 2-3” front end?