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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Tropospheric NAM = AO

0Z GEFS based AO forecasts for March 6th show that the trend is downward:

2/26 run: -0.1

2/27 run: -0.5

2/28 run: -1.3

3/1 run: -1.5

 For March 10th, yesterday's 0Z GEFS had 0. Today's had -0.9.

 The 12Z EPS has a stronger -AO through most of its run through March 14th and that continues its downward trend since the 0Z 2/27 run.

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26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

93 was incredible as far as what it did to the nation. As far as local events go nothing can touch 2016 IMO. I will never live to see 40 inches from a single storm in my life again. No chance. 

There are a lot of storms 93 can’t touch in the immediate DMV. Started out with some enthusiasm. Then disaster. At least the wrap around snow helped a little. And yes totally agree 2016 for some reason is  unfairly ignored. 

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2 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

There are a lot of storms 93 can’t touch in the immediate DMV. Started out with some enthusiasm. Then disaster. At least the wrap around snow helped a little. And yes totally agree 2016 for some reason is  unfairly ignored. 

I lived in southern Carroll County. The storm did mix with sleet for a little bit, but the storm was awesome. We were out of school for a week when we didn’t get off for a flurry. 

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We really need the Euro's superior resolution/computing power/diverse array of data assimilation, or whatever the fuck supposedly makes it better, to be right in this case. Not that the GFS is awful, but we don't have a lot of time here.

the relative consistency of the ECMWF / CMC also give me a bit more confidence that they have the right idea. the GFS has been a bit erratic with its handling of the NW US vort

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have become a believer in the Ji rule.:yikes:

I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now

You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol.

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16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1677693600-1678417200-1678417200-40.thumb.gif.b5bca13f9522071239bbfd4e7a7a21cf.gif

That looks like it wants to close off and go negative and cut to Elko, NV …that would be bad for us I assume 

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol.

this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast

like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8708800.thumb.png.8ba6a23e5fd43d724fcaafef6e6cc3f9.pngecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-8708800.thumb.png.c6ce9ff558f8d80c8d0d28ed8e18a003.png

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Thanks shitty Pacific. What a way to wreck a perfectly good NAO block. :lol:

1678536000-lssfxINtbmQ.png

I don’t think we can blame the pac. It’s far from ideal but there is a trough just south of the Aleutians much of the time and at times the trough gets east of Hawaii.  Combined with the block there isn’t much reason there for the trough to get caught in the NW and cut off. When the trough gets east of Hawaii instead of forcing it out it just gets absorbed!  
 

Honestly looking at the loop on the Gfs these last couple days it’s as if the subtropical eastern N Amer ridge is more cause than effect.  That evolution makes sense if the SER is acting like a mid lat block itself.  We don’t factor it that way because during winter that heat source has never been strong enough to bully the mid latitude jet but maybe that equation has changed?  If the SER is a cause not an effect it really changes things a lot!  
 

Im just speculating here. But the Pac western US wave spacing is absolutely absurd on some of these Gfs runs 

ETA; to clarify what I mean here, a great pac would obviously still obliterate a SER. But what if the SER is not ONLY an effect but equal parts a driver?   Would explain why there is almost no variance lately. We have had some brief periods this winter where the pac forcing was temporarily reversed or in transition and it made little difference to the SER. 

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast

like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8708800.thumb.png.8ba6a23e5fd43d724fcaafef6e6cc3f9.pngecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-8708800.thumb.png.c6ce9ff558f8d80c8d0d28ed8e18a003.png

Lol ya the GFS basically obliterates the whole hemispheric circulation to avoid moving the SER lol. Hence my speculative comment above.  It’s probably just wrong. But if it’s not…

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