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I should’ve savored the 09-16 period more than I did. Lived all over the state in that timeframe and just had too much going on to really appreciate it, but I have a feeling that will end up the best six - seven year stretch of winters (yes even with a bad one in there, lot easier to take sandwhiched between great winters) I’m likely to see. 

Was in Long Branch for that Dec 09 crushjob, then North Brunswick for Boxing Day, ultimately landing where I am now just before the 13-16 period where I actually had snow that persisted for weeks at a time. Obviously a rarity down here, because it requires a real winter not transient cold shots muted by torch. 

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37 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is the fastest arctic shot i've seen

eps_T850a_us_fh90-162.gif

Remember the one in Late Jan 94 that went from 0 in the morning to 32 at midnight (so from 0 F to 0 C) and then 58 the next day on screaming southeast gusts and heavy rain?  It was the third time we hit zero or below that month!

 

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5 hours ago, wdrag said:

06Z/30 GFS for the first time offer exceedingly minor measurable snowfall for NYC/PHL areas early Wed.  EC shutout all this week. UK/Canadian, especially RGEM-RDPS while sagging a little south from previous days (I84) have been constantly advertising a period of snow for PA/NJ/LI Tue night, as has the ICON(not my favorite model). Don't know what to say except for my friends, I'm continuing the 'possibility' of a dusting. 

Also of note and probably already discussed:  I want to think the EC has gone off the deep end at 132 hours or thereabouts, but offers all of our area the coldest temps of the winter, including brutally cold wind chills that if verified would be near WARNING for most of our subforum. Even without snow cover, the low temp in NYC could be the coldest since Jan 2019? I don't want to believe the subzero on the EC and will accept that it's too extreme which makes the wind chill too extreme. Does look like a serious 1-2 day cold shot.

Getting below zero like VD 2014 would be interesting.

I'd shoot for -2 this time areawide or lower.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The 12Z HRRR now looks like the RGEM at 48...not anywhere near as north but basically worlds different than the NAM which at 12Z through 30 appears it won't bit yet

12z RGEM backed down somewhat, but it does still give the area a coating to 1 inch. You mentioned the HRRR and it does give us a coating of snow tuesday night as well. Not looking great, but the fact that the HRRR is seeing a little snow for us keeps this alive even though the RGEM backed down somewhat on the 12z run. 

Sad that this potential minor event is looking like our only chance. The pattern for February looks terrible after the brief arctic shot. If we don't get an inch wednesday morning, there is going to be the real threat of getting to late February without even an inch of snow. Worst winter ever. 

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GFS tries to get a storm going ahead of the arctic air. If that trends stronger we could get some snow ahead of it

Additionally a stronger system will help bring that bitterly cold air further south.

Ensembles have been trending stronger and further south with the arctic vortex and there's precedent for this back in December.

If this continues then believe it or not we would see widespread subzero temperatures 

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43 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z RGEM backed down somewhat, but it does still give the area a coating to 1 inch. You mentioned the HRRR and it does give us a coating of snow tuesday night as well. Not looking great, but the fact that the HRRR is seeing a little snow for us keeps this alive even though the RGEM backed down somewhat on the 12z run. 

Sad that this potential minor event is looking like our only chance. The pattern for February looks terrible after the brief arctic shot. If we don't get an inch wednesday morning, there is going to be the real threat of getting to late February without even an inch of snow. Worst winter ever. 

This may be another case of 200-250 jet inducing an area of snow.  The HRRR has sometimes done a good job of seeing these events 36-48 here when other guidance is all over the place or showing nothing.  It won't be a big event but it probably has decent potential to break the snowless streak

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS tries to get a storm going ahead of the arctic air. If that trends stronger we could get some snow ahead of it

Additionally a stronger system will help bring that bitterly cold air further south.

Ensembles have been trending stronger and further south with the arctic vortex and there's precedent for this back in December.

If this continues then believe it or not we would see widespread subzero temperatures 

I think that that event is probably dead because of the front running low over Quebec...it'll probably torch the mid levels or just manage to raise thicknesses enough that we would rain if that wave got far enough north 

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think that that event is probably dead because of the front running low over Quebec...it'll probably torch the mid levels or just manage to raise thicknesses enough that we would rain if that wave got far enough north 

I mostly agree. It's more of a catalyst to bring the PV further south instead of just a glancing blow  

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just took my winter mats out of my car.

Sorry man, this is brutal. 

Not even having the excitement of a trackable event even if it doesn’t pan out for one area or another is especially tough. It just feels like an endless shutout without any dopamine injection from a model showing at least a quasi-favorable outcome in the short range. 

Most fun I’ve had on AmericanWX was in the lead up to 1/29/22, and second most fun was going back and skimming the threads from old storms the past decade. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This may be another case of 200-250 jet inducing an area of snow.  The HRRR has sometimes done a good job of seeing these events 36-48 here when other guidance is all over the place or showing nothing.  It won't be a big event but it probably has decent potential to break the snowless streak

Yeah I see even 12z GFS now develops a little band of snow that drops a little half inch coating across northern NJ wednesday morning. Very minor, but it's looking more likely that we'll get a little something to finally end NYC's no measurable snow streak. 

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