LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Officially on the board with a “trace!” Protecting my 7 & 1/2 flakes like they’re white gold… wow are you my neighbor? thats exactly what his roof looks like right now! I just checked and his roof has a little more, the entire roof has a coating of white now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, wdrag said: I see flurries in NYC this morning. RGEM the only model to hint this. if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only. You're invited to check back and call me on it. Certainly not the over hyped EC nor the maligned GFS. This at least is a moral victory for all who predicted a big winter event here for the 14th. Flurries are hope. Slight accums nowcast expectation today for parts of CT/LI. roofs are coated with snow and its been snowing steadily for a few hours here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Light snow 31 degrees, beginning to stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 cartops are also covered now with a coating and a big fat snowflake just came and stuck to my window and hasn't melted yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Will Central Park get a tenth? They look just barely too west. So the streak may live on. Maybe some pockets in Queens, Bx, Westchester could get a coating. View toward Orchard beach and LI north shore looks snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Just now, dWave said: Will Central Park get a tenth? They look just barely too west. So the streak may live on. Maybe some pockets in Queens, Bx, Westchester could get a coating. View toward Orchard beach and LI north shore looks snowier. Let's see what JFK gets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Borderline light snow here in northern Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 0.2" so far parts of nw CT hills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Storm offshore tomorrow keeps inching a little closer. Looks like eastern Long Island may get something. Southeastern New England looks to get accumulating snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 The most BN 7 days I could find: UNLESS you want to go to Week 6: We need this now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Central Park reporting 32 degrees with light snow. Is this their first 32 degree reading all month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Hey if Central Park is going to break the record, THIS is how I hope it pans out. Just like last year and most winters we fail, the south racks up. Would be funny no? Delmarva the middle Atlantic buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Looks like the snow has ended and already melting from the rooftops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Honestly if JFK only reported a T in that event in December when we got half an inch I don't see how they will get more with this....that was more snow than what we got with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 BUT I saw a real snow shower here in CI back on NOVEMBER 21! But Whuppy Doo............. NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY ( 89') LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W STA TMP DP RH WD WS G PRS ALT PCPN CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP VIS WX NYC 4am 35 25 66 000 6 19 070 2976 33 OVC 10 5am 33 26 75 350 7 16 073 2977 36 OVC 4 S- 6am 34 23 63 350 9 19 074 2977 39 SCT 55 OVC 10 7am 34 23 63 350 9 17 080 2979 TR 25 SCT 36 OVC 10 0713 33 24 69 010 7 15 2980 24 BKN 36 OVC 10 0743 32 25 75 360 7 2980 18 SCT 25 SCT 37 OVC 3 S- 8am 32 26 78 000 6 084 2980 19 SCT 37 OVC 3 S- 0802 33 26 75 040 9 2981 17 BKN 37 OVC 5 H 9am 33 25 71 000 4 097 2984 18 BKN 23 BKN 35 OVC 10 NYC 6 temps: high= 35 at 4am low= 32 at 0743 mean= 33.5 precip= TRACE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Eps fully caved to gefs rna pattern… Its over True BUT the GEFS went less hostile with a movement towards what the EPA was showing. 1. They both trended towards each other. 2. looks like a la Nina pattern with Blocking. Now, this can result in one of two ways, 1. The RNA is too deep and we are 50 to 60 and rainy, similar to last December. 2. The RNA is average and we have a few change over events. What I want, either 1. Blocking disappears and we have a nice torch of 60 to 70 weather with sun 2. We have enough blocking for some fun, especially with shorter wavelengths Let's see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Now, I know everyone will say that we have seen the RNA take over all winter so why expect this to change? Maybe it will now that it's February and we have shorter wavelengths 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2SM -SN NSP Exits 38-35 Plainview-Hicksville 807am Wondering if some area(s) get an inch or + with this banding?❄ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with some flurries. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 30s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 37° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 39° Tomorrow will be fair and a bit warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 40.0° Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.8° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 True BUT the GEFS went less hostile with a movement towards what the EPA was showing. 1. They both trended towards each other. 2. looks like a la Nina pattern with Blocking. Now, this can result in one of two ways, 1. The RNA is too deep and we are 50 to 60 and rainy, similar to last December. 2. The RNA is average and we have a few change over events. What I want, either 1. Blocking disappears and we have a nice torch of 60 to 70 weather with sun 2. We have enough blocking for some fun, especially with shorter wavelengths Let's see what happens But the NAO is positive. The EPS has been showing phantom 50/50 lows several times only to have them simply disappear, just like this latest 50/50 low fail with the Thurs/Fri rainstorm. A -PNA/SE ridge pattern with a +NAO screams inland runners and cutters, unless you can get a legit 50/50 vortex that is actually real and not an EPS or a GEFS mirage and even then you have to pray the shortwave doesn’t really amp because you don’t have a legit -NAO block to stop the cut 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 My second biggest snowstorm of the year about an 1/8 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: But the NAO is positive. The EPS has been showing phantom 50/50 lows several times only to have them simply disappear, just like this latest 50/50 low fail with the Thurs/Fri rainstorm. A -PNA/SE ridge pattern with a +NAO screams inland runners and cutters, unless you can get a legit 50/50 vortex that is actually real and not an EPS or a GEFS mirage and even then you have to pray the shortwave doesn’t really amp because you don’t have a legit -NAO block to stop the cut Remember though we are talking February with cold air finally in the US. We have a far better chance of scoring in a weak follow up wave (January 2012) than we do now where there is no Arctic source. It doe not look like a "good" snow pattern, but it does not look like a shut out either. We NEED a strong cutter to make it happen . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Now, I know everyone will say that we have seen the RNA take over all winter so why expect this to change? Maybe it will now that it's February and we have shorter wavelengthsThe thing I don’t expect to change is the SE ridge/WAR. @Bluewave has shown that all the models consistently underestimate it and weaken it in the long range only to correct much stronger as we move closer in time. It happens over and over again. This is been going on for years now. I would expect this to be no different given those blazing SSTs off the east coast, there is a positive feedback loop 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 A dusting in colder spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 15 hours ago, lee59 said: Of course it will eventually happen. Those cancelling winter I think are giving up to soon. Goldberg even indicating a week from now the possibility of some wintry weather in the area. Even the CMC and GFS runs that were bringing snow to NYC N&W had a primary SLP into the Lakes. That's not a "pattern" change. I'm rooting for snow as much as anyone, and it could happen next week. But people claiming to see positive changes coming are seeing a mirage. They simple don't learn from their experiences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Even the CMC and GFS runs that were bringing snow to NYC N&W had a primary SLP into the Lakes. That's not a "pattern" change. I'm rooting for snow as much as anyone, and it could happen next week. But people claiming to see positive changes coming are seeing a mirage. They simple don't learn from their experiences. I don't think Goldberg was indicating a turn to arctic cold and snow but more of a gradual change to more seasonal and increasing the possible snow chances. This is my interpretation, I can't speak for him. He also indicated it looks like the run of storms hitting the west coast should end and it will turn colder out there and that chill will start coming eastward. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Never started. Been a bunch of cutters on here since mid November. Just some hype about a great pattern and a 3 day super cold shot. Youre the only one that keeps reiterating that it is over. Move on. its a question of a 0 for CPK or a little bit to save face Exactly He keeps repeating him stating it is over. He can stop tracking if he wants but we will all keep tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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