January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You know it’s a ratter and things look bleak when there’s more finger nail posts than clown maps and weenie h5 360 anomaly maps from optimisticwx99 combined! 

Yesterday was a good day of model watching…today seems to have taken a different turn..so far anyway.  At this point that’s fine. NNE gonna clean up, that’s the good news no matter what. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yesterday was a good day of model watching…today seems to have taken a different turn..so far anyway.  At this point that’s fine. NNE gonna clean up, that’s the good news no matter what. 

I think people were biting a bit too much on 1/23 and 1/25 yesterday. Hopefully they trend better as we get closer, but there's all sorts of landmines to navigate with both of them.

Our best look comes in the week after that...but since there is no definitive threat on model guidance during that period, it makes for very little discussion. Even in our good winters, pattern talk doesn't get the most attention...it's always individual storm threats.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think people were biting a bit too much on 1/23 and 1/25 yesterday. Hopefully they trend better as we get closer, but there's all sorts of landmines to navigate with both of them.

Our best look comes in the week after that...but since there is no definitive threat on model guidance during that period, it makes for very little discussion. Even in our good winters, pattern talk doesn't get the most attention...it's always individual storm threats.

I feel like the pattern has gotten plenty of talk, but people tire of it after 2 months with very little snow to show for it.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like the pattern has gotten plenty of talk, but people tire of it after 2 months with very little snow to show for it.

Yes, the replies get more and more sarcastic and disengaged after a while....but the general idea still holds true. People really come here to discuss storms, not idealized H5 maps.

[dryslot]

The worse thing that could possibly happen is the pattern finally gets to a point where we have some blocking and cold air that would support snow and then we have no threats, Watch what happens then.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

The worse thing that could possibly happen is the pattern finally gets to a point where we have some blocking and cold air that would support snow and then we have no threats, Watch what happens then.

I was thinking this same thing…let’s hope it stays active. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The worse thing that could possibly happen is the pattern finally gets to a point where we have some blocking and cold air that would support snow and then we have no threats, Watch what happens then.

That is basically the 2nd half of January 2013. Those melts might have been worse than the January 2015 melts.

[Typhoon Tip]

way behind this morning...  work meetings all morning.   d'oh!

But wow, that GGEM run from 00z - forget whether it snows or not, now that is how you run a pattern change.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, the replies get more and more sarcastic and disengaged after a while....but the general idea still holds true. People really come here to discuss storms, not idealized H5 maps.

We used to love idealized H5 talks until December porked us and every great pattern since that the eps shows caves to the GEFS and dumps all the troughs out west eventually. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, the replies get more and more sarcastic and disengaged after a while....but the general idea still holds true. People really come here to discuss storms, not idealized H5 maps.

Ya that’s tough to read…I find myself staying away more often than not now because of this. Very disappointing. 
 

Very true regarding the storm discussion..like you said, it would be nice to trend the closer in threats a lil better, to peak some decent(non sarcastic) interest.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is basically the 2nd half of January 2013. Those melts might have been worse than the January 2015 melts.

Yup…that was not a good time either…very lousy 2nd half of January ’13 too. So we’ve been here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, the replies get more and more sarcastic and disengaged after a while....but the general idea still holds true. People really come here to discuss storms, not idealized H5 maps.

I mean....I was all in on pattern talk until about the week after NYs.....but its tough to stay amped up over H5 heights over Deer Scrotum, Alberta or Foreskin, Saskatchewan when it just isn't snowing. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is basically the 2nd half of January 2013. Those melts might have been worse than the January 2015 melts.

And if it happens this year, That may supersede the previous ones, Hopefully we don't need to find out.

[Damage In Tolland]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, I dropped like a 10lbs plate on my foot from off of the squat rack a few months ago....I can't believe I didn't break it. I still have a portion of my toenail that is discolored. I squat with no shoes, too, so thankfully I didn't have my shoes off yet.

Those things can do serious damage . I can’t imagine the pain 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We used to love idealized H5 talks until December porked us and every great pattern since that the eps shows caves to the GEFS and dumps all the troughs out west eventually. 

BINGO.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean....I was all in on pattern talk until about the week after NYs.....but its tough to stay amped up over H5 heights over Deer Scrotum, Alberta or Foreskin, Saskatchewan when it just isn't snowing. 

 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was thinking this same thing…let’s hope it stays active. 

Yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those things can do serious damage . I can’t imagine the pain 

You have no idea....it was actully a 45lbs plate. I was so scared that I had broken it.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean....I was all in on pattern talk until about the week after NYs.....but its tough to stay amped up over H5 heights over Deer Scrotum, Alberta or Foreskin, Saskatchewan when it just isn't snowing. 

Yeah...i dont think we're disagreeing on anything....people like pattern talk when it's earlier in the season and there's a good look for snow....optimism is high. But they aren't going to stay engaged when we keep getting porked....regardless of what the pattern looks like.....we have real world examples in here. Jan 2013 and Jan 2015 are prob the best ones.....the pattern looked excellent going forward but most didn't really care or made the sarcastic remarks or outright melted because they were tired of getting screwed prior to that.

 

This year is following a somewhat similar behavior. Though I'll be the first to say, the pattern going forward doesn't look as favorable as either of those years. It looks a lot better than what we've had, but still could easily disappoint.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...i dont think we're disagreeing on anything....people like pattern talk when it's earlier in the season and there's a good look for snow....optimism is high. But they aren't going to stay engaged when we keep getting porked....regardless of what the pattern looks like.....we have real world examples in here. Jan 2013 and Jan 2015 are prob the best ones.....the pattern looked excellent going forward but most didn't really care or made the sarcastic remarks or outright melted because they were tired of getting screwed prior to that.

 

This year is following a somewhat similar behavior. Though I'll be the first to say, the pattern going forward doesn't look as favorable as either of those years. It looks a lot better than what we've had, but still could easily disappoint.

I still think we recover to near normal snowfall, current frustration notwithstanding.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have no idea....it was actully a 45lbs plate. I was so scared that I had broken it.

That’s why you need a dilf trainer to coach your sessions with motivational wisdom. We know a guy…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Those things can do serious damage . I can’t imagine the pain 

I own a gym, been in the fitness industry for 15 years.  I do about 70 one on one training sessions a week plus teach 10 group classes so I move a lot of weights daily.  Just from plates or dumbells I've broken a finger 3 times, seriously bruised 2 toes, worst injury was when I almost lost my "third leg" putting a 45lb plate back up on a waist high vertical plate rack.  Worst injury I've seen is someone DB benching and dropping 100s onto the ground but he had 90s under him and his finger was in between both dumbells, finger exploded and blood shot straight out onto the mirror in front of him. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s why you need a dilf trainer to coach your sessions with motivational wisdom. We know a guy…

"C Pickles, MD Trainer"

 

(MD stands for Milf/Dilf)

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I own a gym, been in the fitness industry for 15 years.  I do about 70 one on one training sessions a week plus teach 10 group classes so I move a lot of weights daily.  Just from plates or dumbells I've broken a finger 3 times, seriously bruised 2 toes, worst injury was when I almost lost my "third leg" putting a 45lb plate back up on a waist high vertical plate rack.  Worst injury I've seen is someone DB benching and dropping 100s onto the ground but he had 90s under him and his finger was in between both dumbells, finger exploded and blood shot straight out onto the mirror in front of him. 

EEWWWWWWW that's nasty! And a good diet aid lol...just picture that finger exploding before raiding the fridge

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I own a gym, been in the fitness industry for 15 years.  I do about 70 one on one training sessions a week plus teach 10 group classes so I move a lot of weights daily.  Just from plates or dumbells I've broken a finger 3 times, seriously bruised 2 toes, worst injury was when I almost lost my "third leg" putting a 45lb plate back up on a waist high vertical plate rack.  Worst injury I've seen is someone DB benching and dropping 100s onto the ground but he had 90s under him and his finger was in between both dumbells, finger exploded and blood shot straight out onto the mirror in front of him. 

As someone who trains chest exclusively with dumbbells and in that particular weight range, I am absolutely mortified. I can so envision that happening to me on a dropset.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

using the 850mb temp anomalies is also a bit dishonest when you could be dealing with an isothermal temp profile

but you know this 

i also never mentioned SNE. just said it’s worth keeping an eye on. this setup favors towards Lawrence and north

Folks overall should be aware... a +6F 850 mb temperature departure from climatology, is roughly equivalent to a scalar value of 0F at that level, at our latitude.   So those warm amber toned sort of chart washes belie what can happen ... in either direction.  Storms can go blue...  Sunny days to turn out balmy - mainly once you get beyond ~ Feb 10.

What can happen is then, unfortunately, not open to a lot of wiggle room.  That's the frustration of the 0C marginality system.  Do the nuanced perturbations, that cannot really be assessed very well ...even outside of mere 24 hours in some scenarios, flop the temperature marginal+ or marginal- ?? That's the difference between cotton balls, IP, cat paws, or rain that smells like snow when it comes to systems. 

Beyond Friday's ordeal ... the 23 and then the 26th ..etc, those ( from where I'm sitting ) look like 'needle threaders' in a marginal environment. 

Having said that, I don't favor snow at this time.  I have both seasonal trend + yes ... a little bit of CC awareness and the fact that our marginal set ups seem to favor wet over white more so in recent years + the look in the recent runs of more -EPO getting involved in this pattern change sweeping the local hemisphere - which unfortunately might pull the storm track NW if so.

Those three in concert sort of canvas our probability away from snow.  

But probabilities are meant to be broken as they say.  I certainly would not aver a snowier solution out of those can't happen.   I suggest the important aspect is the persistence in space and time for systems to monitor. They are remarkably stable, regardless of interpretive synoptics as far as what they will do.   And knowing that as they are happening, the Canada cold coffer is filling up... could in not should also supply some counter argument against that probability thinking above, as well.  

edit, should also qualify: as they pertain to SNE... obviously the picture changes with elevations W- N

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

"C Pickles, MD Trainer"

 

(MD stands for Milf/Dilf)

Ray crushes his finger with a plate…

C Pickles - get up girly man, push through it. Show me some balls. 

Ray - right here, right now?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As someone who trains chest exclusively with dumbbells and in that particular weight range, I am absolutely mortified. I can so envision that happening to me on a dropset.

Ya, make it a point to always double check that there are no other dumbells within reach when you are DB benching.  It's a habit for me since I saw that happen.  I've saved so many fingers over the years from my clients or buddies. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I own a gym, been in the fitness industry for 15 years.  I do about 70 one on one training sessions a week plus teach 10 group classes so I move a lot of weights daily.  Just from plates or dumbells I've broken a finger 3 times, seriously bruised 2 toes, worst injury was when I almost lost my "third leg" putting a 45lb plate back up on a waist high vertical plate rack.  Worst injury I've seen is someone DB benching and dropping 100s onto the ground but he had 90s under him and his finger was in between both dumbells, finger exploded and blood shot straight out onto the mirror in front of him. 

I wondered how you got all that wealth that you live in. That’s awesome! Weights are no joke. They can kill a man if someone wanted 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As someone who trains chest exclusively with dumbbells and in that particular weight range, I am absolutely mortified. I can so envision that happening to me on a dropset.

Yup man the feeling when you let go of the DB at the point of no return on a chest press.  I shattered my phone years back when it slipped out of my pocket and then dropped the DBs on it.  So pissed. But doesn’t sound bad at all compared to a finger, ha.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, DJln491 said:

I hear it every day from coworkers, most of which live in CT/MA.  Every meeting starts with weather talk and "fingers crossed we only get rain."   Move to Florida

Absolutely awful.