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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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8 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

It might not settle down until WednesdayIt 

Yep, I would think by midday tomorrow we can hit the track with a 50 mile error on either side out to 48 hours..something to the right of the latest gfs and to the left of the latest euro...starting to look like more of a wind event than a blockbuster precip but you get a big multiplier effect when you include the high winds which this one will produce

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

mystery met weighs in:

"The gfs has gone west while the Euro has gone east. The fun and games continue. I think the GFS is to far west. I like a storm track from STL to DET right now. Travel west of the storm track will likely be shut down for a time. "

 

Mystery met taking a blend and thats a good idea at this time....his track makes sense although DET seems to far east(splitting hairs) for the actual COC.  

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10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

NAM range begins today for all the real heads

6z was going well west at the end of its clown range. RGEM too, but maybe not as far west. All FWIW.

Regardless, I agree with RC about the GFS and not just because its a rainer IMBY now. It kept pulling the historic totals with the Feb system last winter, which was obviously wrong in the end. I mean I guess there's still a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. December is not usually our (locally) prime time for widespread 12"+ amounts. It's usually January and February. Still, this whole thing has a major vibe to it because of the high wind and extreme cold aspect to it...even if the top amounts are only, let's say 12-14". Even areas that see 4-6" will have a wild ride with the cold/wind part.

If I had to pick the locales for the bigger snows right now, I'd go KC up through cyclone's/hawkeye's BY and then up thru WI. Subject to change of course...  

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The only constant is the GFS volatility. With this being so close to the holidays not necessarily wanting a storm that shuts the place down through the weekend anyways. As mentioned before usual qpf trimming as event nears vs some of those runs last night likely.

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1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I suppose it’s time to turn on the MSP magnet. Going to be a distracted workweek tracking this.

Your not kidding. I work for the power company and I’m on my own 90% of the time in my own work truck. I’m sitting at my site now on my iPad when I should be on my tough book lmao

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For sh*ts and giggles, the 6z ICON went east and buries Chicago with 20"+. :lol:

And my previous post wasn't trying to be sour grapes because MBY isn't in the bullseye anymore. Just trying to have some perspective with this whole situation. Historic storms happen, no doubt about it, but they're also pretty rare for a reason. Alas, hope I'm wrong and some people on here are measuring drifts to their roof lines. :D

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9 minutes ago, roardog said:

The SE and weaker trend has been around for years now it seems. How many storms over the last few years have turned from huge to almost nothing in the last 48 hours of model tracking? Will this be another one? 

It's happened with almost every potential (12+) the last 3 years atleast. This time tho there will be a legit storm somewhere. My money's on Chicago up to traverse city.

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6z Euro doesn’t look to weaker to me. It’s a tick or two stronger with the slp at 90 hours versus the 0z run at 96. It’s east a bit for sure. I guess QPF is a bit less, but otherwise I think the run would deliver similar results to the 0z run. I mean it’s no GFS, but…yeah.

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GRR from last night 
 

Quote
-- Growing concern for blizzard-like conditions Friday --

We continue to see impressive run-to-run model continuity in the
depiction of the upcoming storm. As noted previously, Thursday`s
precipitation type is a bit in question ahead of the main system.
Given cold surface temperatures and strong lower tropospheric theta-
e advection, freezing rain looks quite possible and even a bit more
plausible than snow during the day and into evening. Ground
temperatures might be able to warm above freezing by the afternoon
commute but this is far from certain. Thus, a coating of glaze for
the Thursday evening commute is a distinct possibility.

Then, starting Thursday night, things get really interesting. In
both the 18/12Z and 19/00Z runs of the ECE, a sizable majority of
members show explosive cyclogenesis of a surface low originating
from the mid-MS valley region and moving northeast into Lower MI or
possibly eastern WI. Forecast deepening of the surface low Thursday
night is unbelievable. The entire ensemble mean drops about 8 mb
between 00Z and 06Z Friday and both the ECMWF and Canadian
deterministic runs show a drop of 20 mb between 00Z and 12Z as the
low center pulls into Lower MI.

We continue to see evidence of a large TROWAL accompanying this
explosive cyclogenesis. Copious snowfall associated with the TROWAL
would likely be juxtaposed with very strong winds and apparent
temperatures dropping into the single digits by early Friday
afternoon. If this scenario were to pan out, we would be well into
blizzard territory by Friday afternoon. This would be followed by a
prolonged period of significant lake enhanced snow lasting most, if
not all, of Christmas weekend.

Obviously, a lot still can change between now and the end of the
week. But, we have observed that the entire model suite has been
extraordinarily consistent with this system, strongly suggesting
greater than average predictability at this time range. The WPC
cluster analyses seem more locked into a solution too. To
illustrate, the 18/12Z WPC analysis showed cluster 1 alone
explaining about 43 percent of the total ensemble spread and its
membership is almost entirely ECMWF and Canadian ensemble members.
This is not surprising given how much in lockstep these ensembles
have been with this system in general.

So, there is increased cause for concern, certainly more than there
was at this time yesterday. Probabilities for a very impactful
system at the end of the week into the holiday weekend are now
uncomfortably high. Accordingly, now is the time to start thinking
about preparing for this possible scenario.

 

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