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Dec 8-9th Snow Event


Chicago Storm
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Part of a trough currently along the West Coast will translate east across the CONUS mid to late week.

 

Should have the opportunity for a corridor of snow on the northern end of the system. Track and strength still tbd, dependent on shallow ridging ahead of wave and blocking north, in the wake of the departing Canadian PV lobe.

 

 

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13 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

dab with the miss south and lake influence, final call

 

13 hours ago, Cary67 said:

1" here but southside wins again. Lakefront just a mixy mess

Re: Lake... Whether this event ends up in WI or IL, lake water temps are down in the low 40°'s now. A good 10° lower than was in place with the event from a few weeks ago.

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1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

No surprise to see the gfs warmer and further north at this range. Didn't track many storms last year but the few I did, it had the same bias. 

The GFS has actually done fairly well in recent times.

However, with the recent upgrade that's in limbo now.

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9 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

There were more upgrades in the last year?....the euro looks good for Iowa/Wisconsin, but the Ole precip weakens as it heads east crap again...

Josh already answered the first portion, but as for the second portion... It has to do with the wave dampening/shearing out as it encounters blocking/confluence off to the NE/E.

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From Hoosier

Quote

Here's a NAM forecast sounding from northeastern IL on Friday.  Nice lift with good omega present in the region of steep lapse rates aloft, and this also resides in the DGZ.  I think it's going to rip for a while, especially out around O'Hare and northward but perhaps even south of there.

 

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update from the Land of Palms:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
UPDATE  
  
(ISSUED 910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022)  
  
TODAY'S FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING  
INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR TOMORROWS WINTER WEATHER  
EVENT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A QUICK MOVING BAND OF ACCUMULATING  
SNOW TO LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WE LOSE CLOUD ICE.  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO  
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL  
RAIN AS EAST WINDS PULL SOME RELATIVELY WARMER AIR OFF OF LAKE  
MICHIGAN.   

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

update from the Land of Palms:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
UPDATE  
  
(ISSUED 910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022)  
  
TODAY'S FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING  
INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR TOMORROWS WINTER WEATHER  
EVENT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A QUICK MOVING BAND OF ACCUMULATING  
SNOW TO LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WE LOSE CLOUD ICE.  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO  
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL  
RAIN AS EAST WINDS PULL SOME RELATIVELY WARMER AIR OFF OF LAKE  
MICHIGAN.   

rainer

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4 hours ago, Baum said:

update from the Land of Palms:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
UPDATE  
  
(ISSUED 910 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022)  
  
TODAY'S FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING  
INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR TOMORROWS WINTER WEATHER  
EVENT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A QUICK MOVING BAND OF ACCUMULATING  
SNOW TO LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT AND WE LOSE CLOUD ICE.  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO  
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL  
RAIN AS EAST WINDS PULL SOME RELATIVELY WARMER AIR OFF OF LAKE  
MICHIGAN.   

That's a questionable statement.

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