canderson Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 @MAG5035 should have mentioned I don’t see the Euro ones. Good catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Low of 33 in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 11 hours ago, MAG5035 said: @canderson The GFS extended maintained some SE ridging (although a good bit colder overall in the east) but the latest run of the Euro weeklies that ran a couple nights ago definitely did not beyond week 2. It had the entire lower 48 cold with no SE ridging starting from about the end of week 2 the whole way through the end at D46. Week 3 (7 day anomalies) Week 4 It’ll be interesting to see what the MJO does. Most guidance gets it rapidly to Phase 8 as soon as the middle to latter part of next week. I think what happens after will be important, as maintaining convection in the 8-1-2 realm would probably go a long way to driving the wholesale change in the pattern at the mid latitudes we need to go on an actual wintry run. The MJO was persistently forecast to hit those phases in early to mid January but never actually emerged into any phase til it got to 3 late month. Theres also the stratosphere, as all guidance has been predicting significant warming and at least some stretching/displacement of the stratospheric PV and this starts occurring in the next week or so. The GFS/GEFS appears go as far as to try to split it. Either way, it’s significant enough that it will likely have an impact on the pattern down the road the next few weeks and a recent example of this is 2018. If it played out that way I think we’d be seeing snow opportunities well before Mar 23. Great post! It’s good to see the MJO speeding towards phase 8. Hopefully we have a March like 2018, but I wouldn’t mind getting things going in late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 It'll get cold. In May.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 15 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said: ATP it looks like we will be under the gun for sever weather late 16th and early the 17th with a favorable kinematic environment foretasted to be not to far west of cpa. The most volatile thermodynamics stay way south of the high kinematic values without much interaction atp . I'm rooting for an overlap, and hell on earth in cpa. Its been way to boring for this weather hound the last few months . Maybe I can get some mood shingles flying around and accumulating in my backyard . I apologize. I did mean to say could be under the gun for severe . No conducive parameters close to home as of yet. Didn't mean to give the impression I feel its immanent , although the slight risk for day 6 did expand north and west overnight but still has a way to go to affect cpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: It'll get cold. In May. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk That's what it did in 2020. A photo of my tulips popping out of the ground (on Feb 11th in Tamaqua) popped up in my Facebook memories today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Sunny with slightly above normal temps for today with a high near 43. Rain chances increase tomorrow and chilly with temps likely staying in the 30's in the Western parts of Chester County and near 40 further east. There could be some wet snow flakes or sleet mixed in for while during the early PM. We then turn sunny and mild again to start the new work week. The records for today: High 64 (1960) / Low 13 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.68" (1983) / Snow 21.8" (1983) - that was day one of the 2 day blizzard that left Chester County under 22.4" of snow. This was the 10th largest snowstorm in County history. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 That's what it did in 2020. A photo of my tulips popping out of the ground (on Feb 11th in Tamaqua) popped up in my Facebook memories today. That's been the last three springs. Winter is from Easter until Memorial Day Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 44 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's been the last three springs. Winter is from Easter until Memorial Day Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Yup. Winter when you don't want it, at least for me. I'm in full spring mode once Easter comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Gorgeous day here at the beach. There's no chance of snow anytime soon. With that reality, I'm ready to embrace the warmth of next week. If it's not going to snow I'd rather it be sunny and 68 then sunny and 43 with a cool breeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Looking very windy Thursday and Friday. Only excitement in the future is … wind and record breaking high temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Voyager said: Yup. Winter when you don't want it, at least for me. I'm in full spring mode once Easter comes. You're in full spring mode once Thanksgiving comes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You're in full spring mode once Thanksgiving comes. Too funny and too true!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 6 hours ago, Atomixwx said: It'll get cold. In May. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I already am expecting that to happen lmao Remember back in May 2020 when we got a snow squall in May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 26 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: I already am expecting that to happen lmao Remember back in May 2020 when we got a snow squall in May? I will never forget that day. Not only for the epicness of a snow squall in May, but also because it was the day I tore my rotator cuff playing a contortionist while trying to break loose a stubborn kitchen faucet connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 CTP sums it up .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No changes generally to the extended as mild weather continues through the extended with no winter weather in sight. POPs ramp up again by Thu PM and have mentioned a schc TS in the NW ahead of the cold front. Temps look like they will be falling all day on Fri if the timing remains solid. Still no widespread snow in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Here we go again...Flagstaff. I post this not to piss you guys off, or boast about this winter pattern, as you all know I dislike it as much as you do. It's just astonishing how relentless it is. Nothing can flip it. I really wish this was for you guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 This is the official forecast for my niece's neighborhood on the western outskirts of Flagstaff proper. Check out the winds. Monday Snow showers. High near 36. East wind 5 to 13 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Night A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 11pm. Patchy blowing snow after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Tuesday Snow showers, mainly after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 11am. High near 31. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Cloudy and chilly today with the best chance of rain across SE Chester County with less chances the further NW you travel across the county. Temperatures then warm up through Friday with highs possibly touching 60 degrees by Thursday. That day is also the best chance of rain after today. Much cooler again by Friday night into next weekend. Records for today: High 68 degrees (1999) / Low 1 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.46" (1985)/ Snow 12.8" (2006) - GO BIRDS!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 For those keeping score that ULL didn’t even produce for those way down south overnight / this morning. And it looks like after our one day of normalish temps on Friday we immediately jump back to 10-20 degrees AN for the weekend. February might beat January’s +8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 21 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Sunny with slightly above normal temps for today with a high near 43. Rain chances increase tomorrow and chilly with temps likely staying in the 30's in the Western parts of Chester County and near 40 further east. There could be some wet snow flakes or sleet mixed in for while during the early PM. We then turn sunny and mild again to start the new work week. The records for today: High 64 (1960) / Low 13 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.68" (1983) / Snow 21.8" (1983) - that was day one of the 2 day blizzard that left Chester County under 22.4" of snow. This was the 10th largest snowstorm in County history. I remember that snowstorm well, Nws was originally calling for 1-3 and they kept increasing the amounts through the storm. Storm complete with thunder and lightning I ended up with 17in. Harrisburg had I think 2ft. and if im not mistaken their greatest 1 hour snowfall during the storm of 6in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Today is a great day of hope for many Eagles fans! The 12z GFS also gives hope for Winter storm fans…only 10 days away..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 All sorts of things are starting to sprout in the garden. Daffodils, hyacinth, rose bush buds. Going to get it ready Wednesday and do a bunch of mulching this next weekend I think. It’s two months early but honestly zero reason not so with no cold air around at least for another ~3 weeks, and if it comes it’ll be very short-lived given it’ll be mid March. Weather will be perfect for outdoor work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Hey @Bubbler86 could you pull the wind barb graphic for Friday? I have a feeling it’ll show very strong winds following the front, perhaps exceeding any we’ve seen this season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 hours ago, canderson said: Hey @Bubbler86 could you pull the wind barb graphic for Friday? I have a feeling it’ll show very strong winds following the front, perhaps exceeding any we’ve seen this season to date. Mean this one? Not overly impressive on the GFS. But....no cold air to Mid March? I am selling on that predict. LOL. 12Z GFS has -7 (negative seven) over MDT in 10 days. 99% it is overdone but not punting to mid-March. CMC shows the cold air incoming as well at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Mean this one? Not overly impressive on the GFS. No cold air to Mid March? I am selling on that predict. LOL. 12Z GFS has -7 (negative seven) over MDT in 10 days. CMC shows the cold air incoming as well at day 10. Oh that’s not bad at all. Interesting as that front is serious business - CTP has Friday as “windy”, upgraded from “breezy” lol. And I don’t buy any model past 5 days. At all. For anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Oh that’s not bad at all. Interesting as that front is serious business - CTP has Friday as “windy”, upgraded from “breezy” lol. And I don’t buy any model past 5 days. At all. For anything. Understood on the modeling....just not looking like winter is fully over either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 E-A-G-L-E-S (Edit. Low class booing Dak though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Rained all evening - picked up .17" so far. Imagine if this was winter...nearly 1" of QPF in Baltimore and still raining to nothing at all north of Harrisburg. At least this happened during the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Rained all evening - picked up .17" so far. Imagine if this was winter...nearly 1" of QPF in Baltimore and still raining to nothing at all north of Harrisburg. At least this happened during the fall. Not a drop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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