MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Usually the ensembles are east of the OP (for whatever reason) but there are quite a few lows WELL east of the OP. The GEFS is still somewhat reflective on what the op was doing thermally despite the good clustering. The result is the snow swath it has focuses more on the northern half of PA. Probability of 850mb temp being above 0 via the individual members: 24 hr snowfall swath (mean): And I’m just doing analysis here, I’m not necessarily favoring one thing over the other right now. I mean gut says a fairly strong low tracking to the Delmarva and up (esp if it gets along the actual coastline instead of just inside) would deliver snow to all of central and at least a good portion to the Sus Valley… but we’re not working with any anomalous cold temps surface or aloft (850s are actually + anomalies). GFS could end up being more correct thermally even though with the low evolution it caved to the rest of guidance that featured a more dominant coastal low. Just putting the options out for consideration. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: GFS wasn’t super far off from 12z (it’s 12z run and vs Euro) in terms of its coastal track, which came a little bit further inside at 18z. It still should have hung decent snow on central/western PA on that track. The big difference was thermals. Notably warmer aloft preceding the event than the Euro, which may have to do with it holding more of a surface reflection west of the Apps coming up and pushing just enough of a warm nose into all of southern PA to make it messy and delay a changeover back to snow as the column cools with the deepening coastal low. It is an important thing to consider with this system, as we won’t have much surface high support and will be relying more on where the gradient is and the developing coastal low to eventually start pulling favorable thermals back toward itself as it quickly comes up the coast. These are the details to get sorted out the next couple days but I’m sure it’ll take getting into NAM/HuRRR range to really get some kind of good handle. Big thing for now is at least the GFS continues to develop the decent coastal low getting to the Delmarva region. This had about been the only model that consistently wasn’t doing that (keeping primary west of the Apps to the Lower Lakes) the last few days until today. Yea. The GFS getting the inland low to Ohio was a killer. It both delayed a change over and took out any snow WAA for the LSV/southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I still find the short and mesoscale to be much more potent , I'm clear headed but amped and ready to go. The other stuff is way too impure and stepped on , leaving me strung out and tired by the time the occasional good stuff arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Holy Christ is this what Storm Mode feels like Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 39 minutes ago, anotherman said: HAHA the GFS operational has no clue. It may be the worst global out there right now. I strongly agree…. Yesterday the GFS Op had the low going to Toronto one run, to the DelMarVa the next run back to Indiana the next run! It was the last model to get any idea that a storm might form near the coast. The wild swings are really just funny at this point. The latest upgrade made it much worse. I read recently that it ranks 5th in terms of Operational models. I really can’t trust it outside of 48 hours at this time in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea. The GFS getting the inland low to Ohio was a killer. It both delayed a change over and took out any snow WAA for the LSV/southern PA. Next run it will probably cut the storm to Minnesota! Then the next run it will shred it off of the Carolinas. Clueless JV model! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Storm 3.... The bottom line is that we should be very busy in here during the next 2 weeks! It is going to be difficult to miss each of these opportunities, and maybe some of us will be lucky to get hit multiple times! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: 18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA. With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization) The 18z ICON was actually pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Holy Christ is this what Storm Mode feels like Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk It’s going to be a very long couple of weeks on here…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s going to be a very long couple of weeks on here…. Blizz I’m with you as long as the EURO is on our side for 2 snowstorms coming up I’m in!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 When I see the snow totals through day 15/16 on the major ensembles get to these amounts with a few threat windows possible, it screams to me that it’s going to snow! It wasn’t too long ago that we were struggling to get the light blues to the LSV. Now, we are seeing the purples & pinks over many LSV yards! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 lol not even gonna get excited over a storm until its less then 24 hours away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, Ruin said: lol not even gonna get excited over a storm until its less then 24 hours away Lol, see you in a few days then… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ruin said: lol not even gonna get excited over a storm until its less then 24 hours away Keep us posted! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, anotherman said: HAHA the GFS operational has no clue. It may be the worst global out there right now. I wish you were wrong but the word horrid'r comes to mind. Run to run variations are just crazy at long range, but even into the mid range its just dizzying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 46 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s going to be a very long couple of weeks on here…. Still setting a low bar down here in SE Pa for this weekend. Nice to see the Ens guidance still notably east, but soon enough (like tomorrow) we need to start paying more attention to the Op's (good or bad) as they will start to hone in on the have's and have nots for this weekend. Beyond that its silly to put much credence into individual storm disco other than general chances and pattern evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, see you in a few days then… or at the 0z's He can say all he wants, but hes a sucker for punishment - like most of us some of us just wear it better than others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 25 minutes ago, pasnownut said: or at the 0z's He can say all he wants, but hes a sucker for punishment - like most of us some of us just wear it better than others Hey I see folks in the various subforums with a bunch of "I won't watch till 3 days" bravado...but you know darn good and well ain't no weenie got enough discipline not to look before that! Lolol Now until five days? MAYBE. But for dang sure not no three 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey I see folks in the various subforums with a bunch of "I won't watch till 3 days" bravado...but you know darn good and well ain't no weenie got enough discipline not to look before that! Lolol Now until five days? Maybe. But for dang sure not no three Welcome to Central PA Maestro! We're sure to have a symphony of storms that will be music to our ears. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Still setting a low bar down here in SE Pa for this weekend. Nice to see the Ens guidance still notably east, but soon enough (like tomorrow) we need to start paying more attention to the Op's (good or bad) as they will start to hone in on the have's and have nots for this weekend. Beyond that its silly to put much credence into individual storm disco other than general chances and pattern evolution. Like you have said the past few days, at least now we are in a pattern of chances. We might win some & lose some, but at least we are now back in the game! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey I see folks in the various subforums with a bunch of "I won't watch till 3 days" bravado...but you know darn good and well ain't no weenie got enough discipline not to look before that! Lolol Now until five days? MAYBE. But for dang sure not no three yeah were all "down w da sickness" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Here’s a look under the hood of the ensemble guidance at a location. Using MDT here. 18z GEFS 18z Euro: This really brings out the difference that remains in the ensemble camps in an area (LSV) that figures to be the biggest tossup trying to establish where the R/S line might setup and if most LSV sees mainly rain, mainly snow delivering sig accums or something in between. Recall the favorable low clustering the GEFS has. Despite that, GEFS presents 11/30 measurable with only 2 of those big hits with the other 9 minor measurable. Euro EPS has way more supportive (reflecting a colder column overall) with 50/51 (plus the control) showing measurable with almost half of those being a moderate snowfall. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I have no plans to be traveling this Sunday so let it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 My little one has an ENT appointment in State College on Monday, so I imagine UNV will get dumped on to make the travel there a real ass pain. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Welcome to Central PA Maestro! We're sure to have a symphony of storms that will be music to our ears. Haha Thanks! And ohh yes, may the rest of the winter be like this: (notice how it starts off slow and then explodes...let us see if this winter can follow in like manner!) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: My little one has an ENT appointment in State College on Monday, so I imagine UNV will get dumped on to make the travel there a real ass pain. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk You have pliers and a flashlight. I don’t see a problem*. * jk hope everything’s okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Here’s a look under the hood of the ensemble guidance at a location. Using MDT here. 18z GEFS 18z Euro: This really brings out the difference that remains in the ensemble camps in an area (LSV) that figures to be the biggest tossup trying to establish where the R/S line might setup and if most LSV sees mainly rain, mainly snow delivering sig accums or something in between. Recall the favorable low clustering the GEFS has. Despite that, GEFS presents 11/30 measurable with only 2 of those big hits with the other 9 minor measurable. Euro EPS has way more supportive (reflecting a colder column overall) with 50/51 (plus the control) showing measurable with almost half of those being a moderate snowfall. The EPS has also been consistent for the last few days with the track while the GEFS has been bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Time for the NAM prediction post 84 hours and my guess is that would be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Time for the NAM prediction post 84 hours and my guess is that would be a hit. I agree, of course with all of the disclaimers of the extrapolated NAM…but it looks good. Here is the end of the 0z NAM & the 12z Euro (great hit for us) from today for the same time stamp as of Sunday am. NAM even has the 540 line near DC, even further south than the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Time for the NAM prediction post 84 hours and my guess is that would be a hit. The 500 low/trough is a bit far North for my liking but hard to extrapolate on that. It was buried a bit farther south at 84 on 18Z vs 81 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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