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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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And by Fall I mean from now through December. B)

The winter thread is becoming a bit of a clusterfuck right on schedule. 

So, it's looking like the much discussed shift in the pattern towards a -PNA late month might be transient to nonexistent per the latest ens means.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And by Fall I mean from now through December. B)

The winter thread is becoming a bit of a clusterfuck right on schedule. 

So, it's looking like the much discussed shift in the pattern towards a -PNA late month might be transient to nonexistent per the latest ens means.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Not through December. I was gonna make this thread but you beat me to it. Maybe change it’s name to November? We always have one for every month Nov through Dec. 

If we have a good month then you have to make them through the winter lol.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not through December. I was gonna make this thread but you beat me to it. Maybe change it’s name to November? We always have one for every month Nov through Dec. 

If we have a good month then you have to make them through the winter lol.

I'll leave it for now as we are squarely in Fall and will be officially until December 1 (or 21 depending on criteria). If the thread gets too big as we head into Dec I am sure someone will create a new one.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I'll leave it for now as we are squarely in Fall and will be officially until December 1 (or 21 depending on criteria). If the thread gets too big as we head into Dec I am sure someone will create a new one.

If that happens it will be because things are great. And if someone else creates a thread then I’m gonna lose it lol.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

If that happens it will be because things are great. And if someone else creates a thread then I’m gonna lose it lol.

Wait- you don't think this thread can become a massive whine-fest if we are torching mid November with no end in sight?  I can think of a few posters who will largely inflate the post count if that happens lol.

 

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  • CAPE changed the title to Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion
2 hours ago, CAPE said:

And by Fall I mean from now through December. B)

The winter thread is becoming a bit of a clusterfuck right on schedule. 

So, it's looking like the much discussed shift in the pattern towards a -PNA late month might be transient to nonexistent per the latest ens means.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Some in the winter thread just want to make sure we know how they feel about the upcoming winter that's all...cut them some slack ;)

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1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

Ha! All La La land - I am dreaming of a White Thanksgiving!

ImageImage

We’re hosting Thanksgiving in Deep Creek this year. Reminds me of 2018 when we had 7” fall a few days before Thanksgiving. Unfortunately that year was less than 50% of climo out there. 

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3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

NWS CPC says above normal for the 8 - 14 day period which would line up with the originally advertised shift to -PNA

Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right.

   The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. 

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49 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right.

   The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. 

Would love to see it happen once.. Usually busts the wrong way.. 

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1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right.

   The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. 

The PDO is still negative

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2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right.

   The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. 

And in my own quaint way that  what I am saying 

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18 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

NWS CPC says above normal for the 8 - 14 day period which would line up with the originally advertised shift to -PNA

Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

There will be a warm up during that period as the pattern de-amplifies, but it remains to be seen if a shift to a persistent -PNA is upcoming. Most LR guidance suggests any W US trough will be transient through the end of the month and into November.

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1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Not classic. Looks rather borderline imo and some forecasts have it going Positive. Also, those warm SST'S off the West Coast and GOA should aid in a + PNA.  

I saw that, but it’s not enough yet. 

I actually raised this a few weeks ago when ssts in central pac were trending cooler, but that large warm pool off the coast of japan is still keeping the PDO negative. 

Not as deeply negative as it has been, but still negative for now. I hope for our sub’s sake that it continues to trend toward neutral. 

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