October 2022

[Rjay]

37.2 was my low. ISP got down to 38. 

[SACRUS]

Was down at 33 and now up to sunny 64 and gorgeous out.  A bit breezy but nice.  Dry and warming the next 3 days / though Wed (10/12). 

May touch 70 / low 70s  in places Tue and Wed. 

Watch front and low on Thu which could bring some rain/storms / wind.   We'll see if we clear out Friday (10/14) or clouds and showers linger.  Otherwise next weekend Sat (10/15) and Sun (10/16) look dry and near normal before deep trough and next strong cool shot moves in by Mon (10/17).  Looks chilly through the middle of the next wok week.  We'll see there is a warmer rebound sustained in the cards for the close of the month.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

After the coolest morning so far this season, temperatures rebounded into the lower 60s on a sun-filled October day.

[donsutherland1]

After a very cool start that saw the mercury approach record lows in a few locations, the temperature rose into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Through 5 pm, highs included: New York City: 61°; Newark: 61°; and, Philadelphia: 65°.

Nevertheless, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 5°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period, even with the return of milder air starting tomorrow. However, more cold air could arrive late next week sending readings below normal for another weekend.

Out West, Portland saw the temperature reach 80° by 2 pm PDT. That was the 7th 80° high temperature this month. The old October record was 6 days, which was set in 1952 and tied in 1980 and 1991.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.905 today. The previous record high was +2.709, which was set in 1990.

On October 6 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.813 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.717 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

[nyrangers1022]

Hopefully we waste the -NAO now and have a comfortable winter so heating bill won't be so high

[TriPol]

6 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Hopefully we waste the -NAO now and have a comfortable winter so heating bill won't be so high

We've had so many warm winters... it's time for a real, cold, snowy winter.

[nyrangers1022]

59 minutes ago, TriPol said:

We've had so many warm winters... it's time for a real, cold, snowy winter.

Nah, screw those winters.  February-march 2014 was awful

[psv88]

65/36 split today

[scootmandu]

On 10/6/2022 at 2:03 AM, LibertyBell said:

Do these work on a PC or do you need to have a phone to be able to use them?

I use apps on both. But I have 8 different forecasting apps on my iPhone (plus radar and other weather apps). Weather Underground has their hourly forecasts on PC, and I assume some others do as well.  Dark Sky is going to be gone by the end of the year, but that app was probably the best for when precip was expected to arrive and how long it will last. I just discovered Windy.com on my PC, which shows very specific forecasts, which you can tailor to your exact location, for rain, wind, precip, etc...from 5 different weather models, with some going out 7 days. Interesting to compare different forecasts temp, precip totals for different time periods, wind flow, specific, forecasted wind speed and direction, etc... 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

65/36 split today

And back down to 45 now. It’ll be an early fall foliage season for us that’s for sure. 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Nah, screw those winters.  February-march 2014 was awful

February-March 2015 was MUCH better

I don't know why people make it seem like 2013-14 was so great, we had above normal snow but most were mixed events and March 2014 was cold and dry.  2013-14 had quantity but not quality, 2014-15 had both quality AND quantity!

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The blocking that produced the record low maxes this week was Pacific dominant. But the storm that cuts this week will cause a west based Atlantic block. So this more Nino-like October pattern continues as the North Pacific warm pool is overriding the La Niña signal. The La Niña SE Ridge /WAR has been the default pattern since the super El Niño. Cooler fall patterns have become non existent before November in recent years. November has been our only month with record cold for a while now. So this cooler October pattern would be our first since the Modoki El Niño in 2009 if it can hold.
 

are there even really "el nino" and "la nina" patterns?

some la ninas have amongst our snowiest winters on record and we've had cold Octobers before in these patterns. and a couple of el ninos are amongst our warmest winters on record.

what about 2000-01 as an analog, it was a third year el nino

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a very cool start that saw the mercury approach record lows in a few locations, the temperature rose into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Through 5 pm, highs included: New York City: 61°; Newark: 61°; and, Philadelphia: 65°.

Nevertheless, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 5°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period, even with the return of milder air starting tomorrow. However, more cold air could arrive late next week sending readings below normal for another weekend.

Out West, Portland saw the temperature reach 80° by 2 pm PDT. That was the 7th 80° high temperature this month. The old October record was 6 days, which was set in 1952 and tied in 1980 and 1991.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.905 today. The previous record high was +2.709, which was set in 1990.

On October 6 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.813 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.717 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

Don what were the lows at the airports and the park?  I didn't get below the mid 40s.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Hopefully we waste the -NAO now and have a comfortable winter so heating bill won't be so high

What -NAO?  The AO is about as positive as it can get and the AO and NAO usually go hand in hand.  Our blocking is Pacific based.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The blocking that produced the record low maxes this week was Pacific dominant. But the storm that cuts this week will cause a west based Atlantic block. So this more Nino-like October pattern continues as the North Pacific warm pool is overriding the La Niña signal. The La Niña SE Ridge /WAR has been the default pattern since the super El Niño. Cooler fall patterns have become non existent before November in recent years. November has been our only month with record cold for a while now. So this cooler October pattern would be our first since the Modoki El Niño in 2009 if it can hold.
 

These kinds of Octobers were more common in the 80s/90s/00s, I remember we would get minor trace amounts of snow frequently in October in that time period, but it was the cold that was really memorable.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

These kinds of Octobers were more common in the 80s/90s/00s, I remember we would get minor trace amounts of snow frequently in October in that time period, but it was the cold that was really memorable.

It will be interesting to see if we can get our first cool October since 2009.

 

Newark October temperature departures

2022…..-7.9….so far

2021…..+6.9

2020….+1.5

2019…..+3.8

2018…..+0.8

2017…..+7.2

2016…+2.3

2015….+0.6

2014….+2.7

2013….+3.0

2012…..+2.2

2011……+1.5

2010……+1.9

2009…..-0.8

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what were the lows at the airports and the park?  I didn't get below the mid 40s.

New York City-JFK: 45

New York City-LGA: 46

New York City-NYC: 44

Newark: 37

Many 30s outside the City.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  61degs.(55/68) or +2.

Month to date is  55.9[-6.0].       Should be  58.3[-2.3] by the 18th.

Reached 65 here yesterday.

Today:  65-69, wind w., p. sunny, 55 tomorrow AM.

Back to 1"-2" for Thurs/Fri.

I'M B......ACK!    A day later and a little weaker.     First seen 06Z, Oct. 07 run:

 

52*(63%RH) here at 7am.      55* at 9am.     57* at 10am.      60* at Noon.       65* at 3pm.       68* at 4pm.      69* at 4:30pm.     Reached 70* at 5pm.     66* at 6pm.        60* at 10pm.

[nyrangers1022]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What -NAO?  The AO is about as positive as it can get and the AO and NAO usually go hand in hand.  Our blocking is Pacific based.

Huh?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will turn partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 67°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 69°

Tomorrow will turn milder.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 68.2°; 15-Year: 69.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 70.5°

[Volcanic Winter]

My low for the weekend was 32.7 on the Tempest; incredible!

Definitely live in a cold pocket of my area of TR (10+ miles inland from shore and backed up to forest, away from main roads). 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Huh?

 

Don posts info that the AO is the highest it's ever been this time of year.  It would be extremely unusual for the NAO to be very negative right now.  It may do that in the near future, but right now the blocking is Pacific based.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My low for the weekend was 32.7 on the Tempest; incredible!

Definitely live in a cold pocket of my area of TR (10+ miles inland from shore and backed up to forest, away from main roads). 

Sayonara to my Poconos growing season, it was in the 20s there.  Still got awhile to go here-- it's very rare to get an October freeze where I am right now-- it's only happened twice in the last 30 years.

Are you near MJX? They have sandy soil and radiate heat as well as FOK does.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don posts info that the AO is the highest it's ever been this time of year.  It would be extremely unusual for the NAO to be very negative right now.  It may do that in the near future, but right now the blocking is Pacific based.

The AO and NAO are different indices. There can be cases where they are in different states. Wave lengths are still relatively short, so the influence of the AO+ has been offset.

[Volcanic Winter]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sayonara to my Poconos growing season, it was in the 20s there.  Still got awhile to go here-- it's very rare to get an October freeze where I am right now-- it's only happened twice in the last 30 years.

Are you near MJX? They have sandy soil and radiate heat as well as FOK does.

I’m several miles north of it. Very close to western border of Manchester. 
 

I’ve found it’s a pretty good location for coastal storms because I’m far enough inland to generally avoid storms that mix right at the coast. 
 

Commute up to near EWR for work. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m several miles north of it. Very close to western border of Manchester. 
 

I’ve found it’s a pretty good location for coastal storms because I’m far enough inland to generally avoid storms that mix right at the coast. 
 

Commute up to near EWR for work. 

That is-- I notice it's a local hot spot for snowfall maxes lol.

You also do better in the storms that slide "under" NYC

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO and NAO are different indices. There can be cases where they are in different states. Wave lengths are still relatively short, so the influence of the AO+ has been offset.

Well, that is unusual-- but the NAO is slightly positive right now isnt it-- forecast to go negative in about a week?

Also, I remember a correlation that was posted that the AO and NAO are in tandem about 80% of the time (the same sign).

 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That is-- I notice it's a local hot spot for snowfall maxes lol.

You also do better in the storms that slide "under" NYC

Yeah, I really can’t complain given how far south I am overall. It’s still a pretty nice location that tends to do well in the larger ECS’s. I miss more of the small events especially with a north / south division of rain and snow. 
 

Was also frustratingly north of the big ACY storm last Jan, but we had a really good month overall and had 16” on 1/29. Can’t complain about that at all. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I really can’t complain given how far south I am overall. It’s still a pretty nice location that tends to do well in the larger ECS’s. I miss more of the small events especially with a north / south division of rain and snow. 
 

Was also frustratingly north of the big ACY storm last Jan, but we had a really good month overall and had 16” on 1/29. Can’t complain about that at all. 

Nope, we got just over a foot so can't complain here either, we get a bit of the central/south NJ storms as they come up just offshore.

 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO and NAO are different indices. There can be cases where they are in different states. Wave lengths are still relatively short, so the influence of the AO+ has been offset.

Thank you