psv88 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 78 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the New York City area will see temperatures run 3°C-6°C (5.4°F-10.8°F) above normal during the first week of November. Such warmth has typically indicated a warmer than normal November.Parts of E. Canada will be even warmer. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 13 hours ago, MANDA said: I agree! I'm glad it stayed solidly overcast here today with some drizzle at times. No use to m/u 70's and humidity at this time of year. I'm already concerned November is going to be warmer than normal. The last 4-5 weeks have been really nice! nothing beats the sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the New York City area will see temperatures run 3°C-6°C (5.4°F-10.8°F) above normal during the first week of November. Such warmth has typically indicated a warmer than normal November.Parts of E. Canada will be even warmer. with all this warmth how is it that October will end up below normal? October wasn't that cold (we didn't have any temps below 40) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning fog lifted and the clouds broke for a time. As a result, the mercury rose into the 70s in many parts of the region this afternoon. Highs included: Islip: 75° New York City-Central Park: 70° New York City-JFK: 73° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 70° Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy and warm day following some fog and drizzle. With the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +12.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.558 today. On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.860 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.536 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.1° (0.8° below normal). Don, how warm did Farmingdale, KFRG get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 10 hours ago, Rmine1 said: Actually turned on the AC to push down the humidity I turned on the fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 14 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Hit 80 on Northern State Parkway in Westbury/Carle Place, Long Island area around 1:30 pm--at least according to my car. Feels like an August day Yep I had the fan on all day. Loved the sun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: with all this warmth how is it that October will end up below normal? October wasn't that cold (we didn't have any temps below 40) There was an extended period of below normal readings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, how warm did Farmingdale, KFRG get? 78 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some early fog and drizzle. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° Cooler air could return late in the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.2° Newark: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 63.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: 78 degrees. the warmest in our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some early fog and drizzle. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° Cooler air could return late in the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.2° Newark: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 63.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.6° the sun is out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: There was an extended period of below normal readings. but that is only against the newer normals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Just missed the record high at Islip at 75°. This late month warmth brings the departure up to 0.0. So the record SST warmth east of New England is keeping coastal sections warmer this month. 10/25 76 in 2001 76 in 1963 75 in 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just missed the record high at Islip at 75°. This late month warmth brings the departure up to 0.0. So the record SST warmth east of New England is keeping coastal sections warmer this month. 10/25 76 in 2001 76 in 1963 75 in 2022 Was the 78 at KFRG a record? I see the record at NYC is 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Was the 78 at KFRG a record? I see the record at NYC is 79 Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures. Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY October 25, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018 Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003 Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 So the past 24 hours so the dribble but the 1+ axis occurred about 80-90 miles east of where multiple models (00z-06z/25 HRRR, EC/UK, SPC HREF) indicated. Model bust on location. I day dribble totals and 3 day totals attached from CoCoRaHs obs through 9A Wed 10/26/22. Click for clarity if you wish. These beneficial rains can only mitigate the residuals of the summer drought. Drought monitor updates Thursday morning. Next week... I think it continues on the table for above normal rainfall Monday-Saturday via one or 2 events. It's possible I may need to add a day on the back end (next Sunday Nov 6) but for now, I continue with what EPS/GEPS ensembles have been implying. I wish the GEFS was on board but so far NOT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 The last 6 days of October are averaging 58degs.(53/62) or +5. Month to date is 57.1[-1.9]. October should end at 57.2[-0.7]. Reached 71 here yesterday. Today: 67-71, wind n. to w., cloudy, fog early, 57 tomorrow AM. Still all AN for the GFS: Except for the CFS there is no hope for the next 30 days to average BN. Looks wet Nov. 02-12 then dry and potentially some BN days till end of November.(not shown) 64*(99%RH) here at 7am, FOG <0.2mi. 66* at 9am, fog lifting. 69* at Noon. Reached 70* at 3pm---but fog ready to come back in. 65* at 5pm-FOG <0.2mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures. Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY October 25, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018 Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003 Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018 Was it 77 or 78. Farmingdale airport on Wunderground says yesterday high was 77. Not that it really makes much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: the sun is out here! The afternoon will be similar to yesterday. There will be some breaks in the clouds in some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Was the 78 at KFRG a record? I see the record at NYC is 79 Yes. The prior record of 77° was set in 2001. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: but that is only against the newer normals? I'm using the 1991-2020 normals, which are warmer than the prior 1981-2010 ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures. Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY October 25, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018 Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003 Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018 Around normal back here near JFK too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm using the 1991-2020 normals, which are warmer than the prior 1981-2010 ones. I'm curious if this overperforming warmth will end the negative anomalies in the city too. On Long Island it looks like it's close to a 0.0 departure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm curious if this overperforming warmth will end the negative anomalies in the city too. On Long Island it looks like it's close to a 0.0 departure now. JFK will probably come in close to normal perhaps a few tenths of a degree above. LGA, NYC, and EWR will be below normal, though LGA might wind up within 0.5° of normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK will probably come in close to normal perhaps a few tenths of a degree above. LGA, NYC, and EWR will be below normal, though LGA might wind up within 0.5° of normal. Just as you wrote that the sun broke fully through the clouds, Don and the temperatures here are now in the 70s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Given how warm the first half of November will be, I think when the pattern changes we'll go right into winter. Unless of course the warm weather locks in like 2011 but I don't think it will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Just as you wrote that the sun broke fully through the clouds, Don and the temperatures here are now in the 70s! It would be even warmer were there fewer clouds. Up in Quebec, record highs are widespread. Yesterday, Montreal hit 77°, its latest such temperature on record. Through 1 pm, it has a daily record 72° today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 It is now partly cloudy here and beautiful out, temperature 71 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 72 degrees here right now, and it feels a little muggy with the dewpoint at 65. As others have pointed out, the long range looks very warm. More 70 degree weather to come in early november. Looks as if I'll be picking tomatoes and peppers for quite awhile since there's no sign of a freeze in the long range. Maybe even into mid november, which would be the longest growing season here that I can remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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