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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Something I'm noticing in every new model run that comes in Ian is actually holding its intensity longer on these north and west tracks. Last night some of the models were ripping apart Ian and causing him to weaken almost to a TS on landfall. Model runs today are relaxing on the shear and dry air near the coast. Definitely not a good trend IMO.

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9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Pretty good slug of dry air to nw of Ian right now. Curious if that's going to impact development despite otherwise very favorable conditions 

This should restrict outflow and prevent the CDO from organizing in the short term. Definitely should act as a cap in the short term

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Never really thought dry air was ever supposed to be an issue though until closer to landfall

The global models did not have any but some of the hurricane and NOAA NHC in-house models had some dry air over the next 12-18hrs. However, even those runs didn't have the dry air significantly impacting Ian.

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3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The global models did not have any but some of the hurricane and NOAA NHC in-house models had some dry air over the next 12-18hrs. However, even those runs didn't have the dry air significantly impacting Ian.

Would a slower development mean a more westerly track into the Gulf?

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7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Would a slower development mean a more westerly track into the Gulf?

The track ultimately is going to come down on Ian's intensity when it gets to Cuba. Weaker storms tend to go east where the stronger storms tend to drift west. In the meantime its honestly hard to tell what this is going to do for the long-term. It only takes 1 rapid or explosive intensification phase for Ian to become a powerful hurricane by the time it gets to Cuba.

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3 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Ian is starting to tighten up and with d max should see some explosive rotating hot towers overnight to really set the stage for RI.

New convective burst rapidly going up near the center. This is likely the start of things to come over the next 24-36hrs so I completely agree with your analysis.

6.png

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1 minute ago, bugalou said:

We have a chance to see two record RI's within 24 hours of each other in 2 different basins if Ian can get cranking over that bathtub water south of Cuba tonight.

Its going to be a stretch if it can rapidly get organized and establish the CDO. The main window for RI we were anticipating was tomorrow evening into Monday morning. If it can get going tonight it will be ahead of schedule on the intensity forecast and most likely lean on the high-end side of the forecast outlined by the NOAA NHC.

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22 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

00z with a tick east 

09L_tracks_latest.png

 

 

 For those who don't realize it, the "UKM2" on here that goes to 168 is the 12Z UKMET (18Z goes out only about 60 hours I think). But I think that the "AVNI" is the 18Z GFS.

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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