New England heavy rain event Sept 5/6 2022. Does this end the summer drought?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can't believe the euro is still dumping 2"+ up here.

Can’t believe we used to rely on it.

[CoastalWx]

.45” now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can't believe the euro is still dumping 2"+ up here.

Same here 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can't believe the euro is still dumping 2"+ up here.

NAM says 4. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can’t believe we used to rely on it.

It’s the aerial coverage that’s wild.

I mean that’s straight tropical storm and even a tropical storm probably wouldn’t be that widespread.

[OceanStWx]

The more meso-scale the guidance, the farther south the max QPF is. So my guess is the global guidance is forcing the QPF off the mid levels, when in reality the low levels are doing the heavy lifting today.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The more meso-scale the guidance, the farther south the max QPF is. So my guess is the global guidance is forcing the QPF off the mid levels, when in reality the low levels are doing the heavy lifting today.

Will it fill in over other areas 90 south or is it just the huge downpours vs showers moving in and out ?

[Vinny Findley]

At 3.06 and counting. Training right over me west out to CT. In and out of moderate to heavy rain.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it fill in over other areas 90 south or is it just the huge downpours vs showers moving in and out ?

The guidance certainly wants to fill CT in, especially early morning hours, but I think it will be tough to move the heaviest out of the corridor you see setting up on radar now (from DXR to IJD).

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The more meso-scale the guidance, the farther south the max QPF is. So my guess is the global guidance is forcing the QPF off the mid levels, when in reality the low levels are doing the heavy lifting today.

Exactly. That’s how I feel.

[CoastalWx]

The Synoptics get better so I suppose we could see heavier echoes like what’s on BGM radar outside the low level front. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The guidance certainly wants to fill CT in, especially early morning hours, but I think it will be tough to move the heaviest out of the corridor you see setting up on radar now (from DXR to IJD).

That’s kind of how I figured . Wasn’t going to be those 4-8” widespread amounts. It may be Ginx area that sees 8-10”+

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The more meso-scale the guidance, the farther south the max QPF is. So my guess is the global guidance is forcing the QPF off the mid levels, when in reality the low levels are doing the heavy lifting today.

How are the globals over-doing the mid-level lift that much?  I mean 3-6” water amounts over a large area… something fundamentally seems missing there.

These types you can be shut out and then get 2.5” in 90 minutes at like 4am tomorrow.  As usual in warm season huge variety in totals.  

[powderfreak]

Looks like it goes well into tomorrow too.  11am and still ripping cells of heavy rain.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s the aerial coverage that’s wild.

I mean that’s straight tropical storm and even a tropical storm probably wouldn’t be that widespread.

That has 5-6” in Greenfield and we have barely had .10”

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s kind of how I figured . Wasn’t going to be those 4-8” widespread amounts. It may be Ginx area that sees 8-10”+

18z HRRR trickling in has 9 inches through daybreak. 

There was a big CSTAR study on mesoscale precip forecasts, and one of the finding from the modeling team was that the HREF max products are usually a good red flag indicator of potential. Like if the HREF says 10 inches max, that means the environment CAN support 10 inches and don't sleep on it. You may only get 5, but you should be paying attention. The current HREF does indeed have some 10 inch amounts in CT, and even 5 inches in 6 hours. 

The way the 3 hourly mean/max QPF forecasts back build towards HFD tells me that it's going to be somewhere southwest of the current QPE max near PVD that jackpots.

[Damage In Tolland]

Cranston is literally going to be KY flooding soon. 5+” already 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How are the globals over-doing the mid-level lift that much?  I mean 3-6” water amounts over a large area… something fundamentally seems missing there.

These types you can be shut out and then get 2.5” in 90 minutes at like 4am tomorrow.  As usual in warm season huge variety in totals.  

It's more of a resolution thing. They know that this atmosphere will produce prolific rainfall, but they can't resolve the mesoscale features that will force it. So they convect over large grids.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

18z HRRR trickling in has 9 inches through daybreak. 

There was a big CSTAR study on mesoscale precip forecasts, and one of the finding from the modeling team was that the HREF max products are usually a good red flag indicator of potential. Like if the HREF says 10 inches max, that means the environment CAN support 10 inches and don't sleep on it. You may only get 5, but you should be paying attention. The current HREF does indeed have some 10 inch amounts in CT, and even 5 inches in 6 hours. 

The way the 3 hourly mean/max QPF forecasts back build towards HFD tells me that it's going to be somewhere southwest of the current QPE max near PVD that jackpots.

Boundary definitely slipped south of here over the last 30 minutes. Sunny breaks gone , temp and dew sliding back 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully some 10-15" amounts!  Let's go!

[OceanStWx]

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seymour is getting annihilated. His Stein dead 

[dan11295]

That Foster-Cranston/PVD corridor had gotten hammered last 2 hours. 4-5+ widespread in that corridor now.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

18z HRRR trickling in has 9 inches through daybreak. 

There was a big CSTAR study on mesoscale precip forecasts, and one of the finding from the modeling team was that the HREF max products are usually a good red flag indicator of potential. Like if the HREF says 10 inches max, that means the environment CAN support 10 inches and don't sleep on it. You may only get 5, but you should be paying attention. The current HREF does indeed have some 10 inch amounts in CT, and even 5 inches in 6 hours. 

The way the 3 hourly mean/max QPF forecasts back build towards HFD tells me that it's going to be somewhere southwest of the current QPE max near PVD that jackpots.

That's very helpful, thanks. Looking at the HREF, it's quite aggressive across CT. Even the mean is impressive. It looks like the max is just south of HFD. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

.91" IMBY as of 330pm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh For sure.  I’m Looking forward to it. 
 

Actually was just out running an errand, and was thinking about just that.  Will be nice to get together again, and throw back some suds, and see everybody again. I really enjoyed it last November…Great time. 

I'll get on it.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's very helpful, thanks. Looking at the HREF, it's quite aggressive across CT. Even the mean is impressive. It looks like the max is just south of HFD. 

The location more often than not was not particularly accurate, but the amounts were the key. If they were showing up in your CWA, you should sit up and pay attention to the threat. 

Rarely do these significant rainfall events occur without some heads up from guidance these days.

[BrianW]

Upton's thoughts. 

 

CAMs depict the showers expanding in coverage later today as a weak frontal wave develops along the boundary, with the moisture slug gradually sinking south tonight. Much of the souther half of our area, including NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island, may remain predominantly dry through the afternoon, with the bulk of any showers over the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. While an embedded thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, withlittle instability and weak shear, not too concerned about a severe thunderstorm threat. The abundant available moisture
however, PWATs climbing to around 2 inches per BUFKIT soundings,along with the potential for training, brings the threat of torrential rainfall. After collaboration with neighbors, decided to hoist a flood watch for all zones running from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. RFC 1/3/6 hr guidance is fairly high over southern Connecticut and the Hudson Valley
(where highest QPF lies). So while confidence isn`t particularly high given the longer duration of the event, along with expected rainfall rates generally under a half inch, short range ensembles are signaling the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly tonight into the first half of Tuesday, that could lead to flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall outlined for the entire region both today and Tuesday. It should be noted that given the
low water levels from the dry antecedent conditions, larger rivers and streams should be able to hold the rainfall without
going into flood.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll get on your weenie 

I doubt he’s in ?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

First legit heavy rain in 6 weeks . 1.41” in 20-30min..