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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Good morning! These inversion events that we have we just kill it in temps. Having elevation and living in a bowl helps a lot with these events. Current temp is 21 degrees.  A lot colder than forecasted. 
Still a strong signal for upslope snow. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 inches to 3-6 in the highest elevations. 
Also this squall line that will be blowing through could bring some pretty severe weather with it as well. Possibly high winds and some hail and torrential rainfall. 
I reached 41 around 1030 last night before cooling back down to 32 by 7am. Anytime there isn't strong caa or snowcover in the valley on sunny winter days, you can bank on an inversion happening. I'm sure the ski resort loves that.

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3 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

12z euro looks pretty good with 4-10" totals on the border. One thing to keep in mind is those totals are at 10:1 when we should have 15-20:1 ratios according to other guidance.

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Was just fixing to say with the stronger northern vort this is what I'd expect.  The gfs doesn't see that for some reason. A great look.

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9 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

12z euro looks pretty good with 4-10" totals on the border. One thing to keep in mind is those totals are at 10:1 when we should have 15-20:1 ratios according to other guidance.

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I’d cash out at a 4”+ event at my place all

day long 

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I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts? 
 

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7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Good morning! These inversion events that we have we just kill it in temps. Having elevation and living in a bowl helps a lot with these events. Current temp is 21 degrees.  A lot colder than forecasted. 

Still a strong signal for upslope snow. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 inches to 3-6 in the highest elevations. 

Also this squall line that will be blowing through could bring some pretty severe weather with it as well. Possibly high winds and some hail and torrential rainfall. 

It always gets colder when there is no snow in the forcast

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2 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Will be in Boone this weekend. Appears Boone might be a bit too far east for anything substantial but hopeful for an inch or two. Those that are along the border should be in great shape though!


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I might load the family up and drive toward banner elk towards Roan..

Maybe..

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1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

I might load the family up and drive toward banner elk towards Roan..

Maybe..

Yeah I'm kicking myself for getting a cabin in Boone this weekend and not somewhere like Beech but nothing I can do now. Any way will probably drive over to Banner Elk and maybe up to Beech Friday evening. 

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52 minutes ago, Ja643y said:

I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts? 
 

That area usually only gets an inch or 2 at best unless the streamers setup in that area. 

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While not prolific by any means the 18z NAM is a good sign for this weekend. 
Plenty of backside moisture up to 700mb thanks to the large UL trough pivoting through. Should be a good 24hr window for NW flow.
 
7AB4D5D8-CA4D-47DB-9761-800A11F0487A.png.57e8478dc94d6ba733e81f6c4be3396f.pngEE76F327-9A4C-4601-AEF9-79C3D99659DA.png.c97b28a6fa1adfab5a3826e7f4ca1a1c.png0F5ECA85-C431-464D-87FF-B4D88220772D.png.a9e545dcf4755a4521bc8eb22f98e2f5.png
This year, 2-4" IS prolific lol.

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2 hours ago, Ja643y said:

I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts? 
 

Unfortunately, that is the case with these NWFS events here in Mitchell county.  Areas north and west of Bakersville (Roan, Unaka, Buladean, and Poplar) tend to get the most during these events.  However, Little Switzerland gets the best during the synoptic setups and icy CAD events along the BRP.  Sometimes the NWFS events can break containment of the higher elevation TN border and give Spruce Pine some nice totals.  Numerous times in my 55 years, I've seen the Buladean valley socked in with 6-8" of flow snow while Spruce Pine was sunny and dry all day!  Good luck with this one...maybe we get to see our first measurable snow of the season!

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20 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Good trends on the NAM. Upping totals for everyone and some 6+ inch totals on the border.


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Yeah and it's still snowing at hour 84 on the NAM. This isn't the NAM'S best hours but you have the cmc, euro, NAM,  and gfs all look very good. It'll be interesting to see the NAM 3K Once this storm gets closer.

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Yeah and it's still snowing at hour 84 on the NAM. This isn't the NAM'S best hours but you have the cmc, euro, NAM,  and gfs all look very good. It'll be interesting to see the NAM 3K Once this storm gets closer.

Definitely good to see. If I remember correctly from my time living in the high country I believe the NAM typically handles flow events the best correct?


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