Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 06z gfs snowfall mean still looks decent out at the mid range of this system. So still some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This winter serms doomed. Reminds me a lot of 2011-2012 which was another moderate Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This may or may not work out but not sure I'd hit the panic button a week out. But agree that getting skunked from Christmas to mid-jan is pretty brutal. And February has been crappy for the last several years but maybe this year is better. Separately, Brad seems surprisingly bullish here for the weekend. Yeah there could be some flakes flying and they were able to refresh the slopes with some man-made snow but not seeing much in the way of actual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 56 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This winter serms doomed. Reminds me a lot of 2011-2012 which was another moderate Nina Yeah yall in the foothills may be blanked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah yall in the foothills may be blanked. El Niño setting up just in time to make sure the crawl to warmer weather is delayed come spring as well. Sheesh… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0z CMC is ... a DREAM. I've been bored so far this winter so I am going to hug that one for a few, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 27 minutes ago, BooneWX said: El Niño setting up just in time to make sure the crawl to warmer weather is delayed come spring as well. Sheesh… Yeah ive seen that in the long range guidance as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If we get blanked hopefully there is a robust NW flow or elevation dependent snow for me to chase at least. Haven't even had that this winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It does feel a bit more winterlike this morning. First night below freezing in a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z gfs is an improvement. Not a huge improvement but a better solution especially on the backside of the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Actually this is a bit of a bizarre solution with the low kind of stalling out and winding up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Pretty decent NWFS for hours on the back end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 That causes a long duration upslope snow across the mountains that would dump feet along the border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 36hrs + of flow snow..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah a huge improvement for the border counties at least. Even had Asheville getting a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This one is a long ways from over. The Gfs transferring the Low from the Ohio valley to Coastal NC won’t happen. The more southern solutions seems plausible at this point in time. Enjoy the ride on this one we are going to see big time swings, but someone up here is going to get hammered imo Friday and into Saturday. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Man would I ever take the GFS to the bank. No travel issues Friday night. Wake up Saturday morning and it’s snowing and doesn’t stop until it’s time to head out Monday. (Obviously would love a more widespread storm for the forum too) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 12z mean snowfall bumped up as well across the region which is a great sign of ensemble support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Well the Euro does give you a good NWFS again but nothing for foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro breaking our hearts here in the Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 It is absolutely ridiculous how close tomorrow/Sunday is to all snow above 3000ft. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see some spots never change over (looking at you bucket). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 It is absolutely ridiculous how close tomorrow/Sunday is to all snow above 3000ft. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see some spots never change over (looking at you bucket). I was noticing that. The 18z 3km Nam doesn't have me climbing above 35 the entire weekend and there's not much of a warm nose on the profiles. Could be interesting!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I was noticing that. The 18z 3km Nam doesn't have me climbing above 35 the entire weekend and there's not much of a warm nose on the profiles. Could be interesting!Sent from my SM-S908U using TapatalkOn the TT maps it starts as ice along the escarpment and it keep a rain/snow mix almost the entire time around Boone. Just 1C more..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 You really couldn't cut it any closer tomorrow around Boone than the 12z HRRR does. It seems to be cooling off with each run too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 You really couldn't cut it any closer tomorrow around Boone than the 12z HRRR does. It seems to be cooling off with each run too. I just looked and it maintains a pretty good snow profile for the duration here. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 30.6 with very light flurries in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We spiked to 48 earlier and holding steady about 5 degrees warmer than the rest of the county. Had a good bit of sun but clouding back up now. Pretty much par for the course in downslopeville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Hanging steady at 41, wet bulb is 35. Doubtful I’ll see anything more than some token flake but it could surprise me. I’d feel more comfortable if I was another 500’+ up in elevation though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I need to remember that I live in the mountains lol. The main thread and I don't jive 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 WWA up from RNK. Color me surprised, I figured they'd wait this one out like they usually do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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