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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder how we're doing overall on the hottest and/or driest summer list. Gotta be way up there.

Maybe we'll be in the top 3 by end of August for met summer (June-August)

Currently the 5th warmest June 1st to August 3rd from Philly to Freehold and Newark .

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1994-08-03 80.1 0
2 2010-08-03 79.8 0
3 2011-08-03 79.0 0
4 2020-08-03 78.7 0
5 2022-08-03 78.4 0
6 1995-08-03 78.3 0
7 1993-08-03 78.2 0
8 2008-08-03 77.9 0
9 2012-08-03 77.8 0
10 2016-08-03 77.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1983-08-03 78.8 61
2 1999-08-03 77.2 7
3 2010-08-03 76.7 2
4 2020-08-03 76.5 4
- 1987-08-03 76.5 30
5 2022-08-03 75.8 0
6 2011-08-03 75.4 0
- 1949-08-03 75.4 0
- 1934-08-03 75.4 0
7 2019-08-03 74.9 0
- 2013-08-03 74.9 0
8 2021-08-03 74.8 0
9 1943-08-03 74.7 1
10 2002-08-03 74.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1994-08-03 79.9 0
2 1993-08-03 79.5 0
3 2010-08-03 79.2 0
4 2011-08-03 78.8 0
5 2022-08-03 78.6 0
6 2020-08-03 77.9 0
7 1999-08-03 77.8 0
8 2021-08-03 77.3 0
9 1988-08-03 77.1 0
10 2013-08-03 77.0 0
- 2008-08-03 77.0 0
- 1987-08-03 77.0 0
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84/72 warm and humid on the way to the likely peak of this heat, although Mon could be an over performer.  Mid / upper 90s with outside chance of the century mark in the warmer and drier spots in NJ, though i think it will be less than the heat last weeks. 

Humid and warm and likely wet, kind of caught between the rim of the Rockies / Plains ridge eastern periphery and the western side of the building Western Atalantic ridge later Friday (8/5) and into the weekend Sat (8/6) and early Sun (8/7) with a stalled out boundary.  This will enhance the already juicy atmosphere and drop some heavy rain.  Where that sets up is still to be determined later Friday night and especially sat and sat night.  Friday, where the sun is out for any length will push into the mid 90s.  Saturday looks mainly cloudy, Florida style peaks of sun and scattered down pours, it may be tougher to get to90, but the same, where there is any break in clouds the heat quickly pushes to 90 as we have 850 MB temps near 20C Thu pm through Sat pm.   Sun (8/7) looks to clear out a bit with a more westerly flow and perhaps more sunshine with more low 90s.

Beyond there and into next week a front will approach and the timing of that front will determine if Monday (8/8) could be an over performer with some strong heat. Tue (8/9) the front is moving through and sets up a trough Wed (8/10) through the end of next week.  Beyond there overall warmer ,as the plains and rockies ridge is pushing more heat into the GL/OV heading into the region with the Western Atlantic Ridge near the EC.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Currently the 5th warmest June 1st to August 3rd from Philly to Freehold and Newark .

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1994-08-03 80.1 0
2 2010-08-03 79.8 0
3 2011-08-03 79.0 0
4 2020-08-03 78.7 0
5 2022-08-03 78.4 0
6 1995-08-03 78.3 0
7 1993-08-03 78.2 0
8 2008-08-03 77.9 0
9 2012-08-03 77.8 0
10 2016-08-03 77.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1983-08-03 78.8 61
2 1999-08-03 77.2 7
3 2010-08-03 76.7 2
4 2020-08-03 76.5 4
- 1987-08-03 76.5 30
5 2022-08-03 75.8 0
6 2011-08-03 75.4 0
- 1949-08-03 75.4 0
- 1934-08-03 75.4 0
7 2019-08-03 74.9 0
- 2013-08-03 74.9 0
8 2021-08-03 74.8 0
9 1943-08-03 74.7 1
10 2002-08-03 74.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1994-08-03 79.9 0
2 1993-08-03 79.5 0
3 2010-08-03 79.2 0
4 2011-08-03 78.8 0
5 2022-08-03 78.6 0
6 2020-08-03 77.9 0
7 1999-08-03 77.8 0
8 2021-08-03 77.3 0
9 1988-08-03 77.1 0
10 2013-08-03 77.0 0
- 2008-08-03 77.0 0
- 1987-08-03 77.0 0

Actually, fourth warmest at Freehold if you toss 1983 (missing the entire months of June and July - that average is based on just the first three days of August), and 1987 (missing the entire month of June - the coolest summer month - and therefore inflated).

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Currently the 5th warmest June 1st to August 3rd from Philly to Freehold and Newark .

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1994-08-03 80.1 0
2 2010-08-03 79.8 0
3 2011-08-03 79.0 0
4 2020-08-03 78.7 0
5 2022-08-03 78.4 0
6 1995-08-03 78.3 0
7 1993-08-03 78.2 0
8 2008-08-03 77.9 0
9 2012-08-03 77.8 0
10 2016-08-03 77.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1983-08-03 78.8 61
2 1999-08-03 77.2 7
3 2010-08-03 76.7 2
4 2020-08-03 76.5 4
- 1987-08-03 76.5 30
5 2022-08-03 75.8 0
6 2011-08-03 75.4 0
- 1949-08-03 75.4 0
- 1934-08-03 75.4 0
7 2019-08-03 74.9 0
- 2013-08-03 74.9 0
8 2021-08-03 74.8 0
9 1943-08-03 74.7 1
10 2002-08-03 74.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3
Missing Count
1 1994-08-03 79.9 0
2 1993-08-03 79.5 0
3 2010-08-03 79.2 0
4 2011-08-03 78.8 0
5 2022-08-03 78.6 0
6 2020-08-03 77.9 0
7 1999-08-03 77.8 0
8 2021-08-03 77.3 0
9 1988-08-03 77.1 0
10 2013-08-03 77.0 0
- 2008-08-03 77.0 0
- 1987-08-03 77.0 0

Phl is running warm with a avg of 2 degrees above the surrounding stations. The nws is looking into it 

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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM isn't showing much for tomorrow and saturday. I know there will be some downpours and there's decent potential due to the high dewpoints, but I'm not getting my hopes up too much since we've had such bad luck here. We'll see.

The NAMS have definitely dried out some-almost appears best risk is N and W of the city

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51 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Phl is running warm with a avg of 2 degrees above the surrounding stations. The nws is looking into it 

If PHL is too warm than New brnswck and BLM must be running 6 degrees too warm as well.  Paralysis by analysis with too many sites to compare.  The dryness is adding some heat to the areas from about TTN to EWR vs other sites.  Ive said TTN has seemed a it lower since 2016 or so than had previously been.  All this attention to those sites but none to the mecca of stats for NYC (central park) being skewed by over growth vs metro areas cooler by 3 - 5 degrees on the hotter/hottest days.

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Plenty of warm water close to the Conus for anything that does form. 

Might be more of an "in close" year like we have seen recently-seems like the long tracked hurricane has become a bit rarer past few years...

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually, fourth warmest at Freehold if you toss 1983 (missing the entire months of June and July - that average is based on just the first three days of August), and 1987 (missing the entire month of June - the coolest summer month - and therefore inflated).

Good to know. This was the 2nd warmest July at Freehold-Marlboro. 7 out of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since our summers started getting much warmer in 2010.
 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 80.5 4
2 2022 80.0 0
3 1955 79.8 1
4 2020 79.3 2
5 2010 78.8 0
6 2019 78.6 0
7 2011 78.5 0
8 1949 78.2 0
9 2013 78.1 0
10 2012 77.9 0
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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Phl is running warm with a avg of 2 degrees above the surrounding stations. The nws is looking into it 

you're never going to see a summer like 1996 or 2009 for the rest of your life

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Phl is running warm with a avg of 2 degrees above the surrounding stations. The nws is looking into it 

The daytime highs have been right in line with the other stations in July. Maybe the drought with the lower dewpoints allowed the surrounding stations to cool off more at night? So the built up area closer to Philly was the warm spot at night.

 

Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Max Temperature 
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1
NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5
NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4
NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 90.5
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 90.4
NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.4
PA NORRISTOWN COOP 90.0


 

Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Min Temperature 
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 73.7
MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 73.0
DE DOVER COOP 72.0
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.5
MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 71.1

 

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The daytime highs have been right in line with the other stations in July. Maybe the drought with the lower dewpoints allowed the surrounding stations to cool off more at night? So the built up area closer to Philly was the warm spot at night.

 

Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Max Temperature 
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1
NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5
NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4
NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 90.5
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 90.4
NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.4
PA NORRISTOWN COOP 90.0


 

Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Min Temperature 
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 73.7
MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 73.0
DE DOVER COOP 72.0
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.5
MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 71.1

 

Phl +3.4 for July was the highest in nws Phl area and twice as warm a Wilmington and acy. The uhi  warm bias started last November per mt holly met 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The daytime highs have been right in line with the other stations in July. Maybe the drought with the lower dewpoints allowed the surrounding stations to cool off more at night? So the built up area closer to Philly was the warm spot at night.

 

Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Max Temperature 
NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1
NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5
NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4
NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 90.5
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 90.4
NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.4
PA NORRISTOWN COOP 90.0


 

Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Min Temperature 
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 73.7
MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 73.0
DE DOVER COOP 72.0
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.5
MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 71.1

 

Good point. I just took a look at PHL and PNE, and they are always about the same for daytime highs in the summer with PHL may be averaging a couple tenths of a degree warmer. Looks like it's spot on, at least for daytime maxima - unless PNE sensor also somehow broke this summer as well. I don't know about the low temperatures, although I wouldn't think it's a sensor issue if daytime maxima are unaffected. With that said, could be change in ground cover around the station, or construction? Not saying that's the case, just a possibility. Either way clearly not two degrees off. Funny how there's always so much discussion about sensors all of a sudden reading too high, but never the inverse. Even when Albany was reporting a solid 3F low for well over a year... 

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1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Good point. I just took a look at PHL and PNE, and they are always about the same for daytime highs in the summer with PHL may be averaging a couple tenths of a degree warmer. Looks like it's spot on, at least for daytime maxima - unless PNE sensor also somehow broke this summer as well. I don't know about the low temperatures, although I wouldn't think it's a sensor issue if daytime maxima are unaffected. With that said, could be change in ground cover around the station, or construction? Not saying that's the case, just a possibility. Either way clearly not two degrees off. Funny how there's always so much discussion about sensors all of a sudden reading too high, but never the inverse. Even when Albany was reporting a solid 3F low for well over a year... 

the Gladstone site has had more errors in Highs then min. 

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

the Gladstone site has had more errors in Highs then min. 

While it took some time to find, this paper explains why the MADIS range test that the Gladstone site uses is so flawed. NYC is a chronically bad type of site mentioned below. The trees covering the ASOS has been an ongoing issue since the 1990s.

http://www.thinkmind.org/articles/geoprocessing_2019_1_10_30010.pdf

Range tests are not perfect. The record high United States temperature would fail MADIS’s range test, although it would pass MesoW- est’s test. Both MADIS and MesoWest further employ a suite of tests that go beyond their simple range tests. “Bud- dy” tests compare an observation to neighboring observa- tions. MADIS uses Optimal Interpolation in conjunction with cross-validation to measure the conformity of an ob- servation to its neighbors [2]. MesoWest estimates observa- tions using multivariate linear regression [5]. A real obser- vation is compared to the estimate, and if the deviation is high, then the real observation is flagged as questionable.
These approaches are flawed in that they do not account for bad metadata, such as incorrect timestamps or incorrect locations. They do not account for chronically bad sites which produce bad data including data that may sometimes appear correct. Of even greater concern, they may not do a good job in assessing accuracy and may be incorrectly la- beling bad data as good and good data as bad.
The consequences of ignoring data quality are great. How can we trust our applications and models if the inputs are bad? In turn, how can we better assess data for quality so that we can be confident in its use?
In this paper, we present new evaluation results for our previously-published method including evaluation with several new data sets. These results are significant in that they demonstrate the challenges of evaluation of methods for data quality assessment of spatio-temporal weather sen- sor data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Sec- tion II presents relevant literature, Section III identifies general challenges, Section IV defines our approach,

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20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Phl +3.4 for July was the highest in nws Phl area and twice as warm a Wilmington and acy. The uhi  warm bias started last November per mt holly met 

For some reason everyone seems to know better than the actual Mt. Holly mets.  We should tell them to cancel their investigation. 

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26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Phl +3.4 for July was the highest in nws Phl area and twice as warm a Wilmington and acy. The uhi  warm bias started last November per mt holly met 

Well, I'm sure the current system isn't perfect. It's probably the best system we have. When was the ASOS installed at PHL? Those readings from 1993-1995 are probably hyper-inflated from the HO-83 sensors, which are known to have read 1-3C too high during the daytime on sunny days with light winds - which are common during the summertime.

https://climateaudit.org/2007/08/22/the-ho-83-hygrothermometer/

I wonder how warm summers like 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994, and 1995 from that era would be if measured today? Maybe the volcanic summer of 1992 would be even a bit cooler. I remember hearing about how 1995 was a deadly, once in a lifetime heatwave - yet now it barely even stands out as hot, as it seems almost every summer is nearly as warm or warmer these days.

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1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I'm sure the current system isn't perfect. It's probably the best system we have. When was the ASOS installed at PHL? Those readings from 1993-1995 are probably hyper-inflated from the HO-83 sensors, which are known to have read 1-3C too high during the daytime on sunny days with light winds - which are common during the summertime.

https://climateaudit.org/2007/08/22/the-ho-83-hygrothermometer/

I wonder how warm summers like 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994, and 1995 from that era would be if measured today? Maybe the volcanic summer of 1992 would be even a bit cooler. I remember hearing about how 1995 was a deadly, once in a lifetime heatwave - yet now it barely even stands out as hot, as it seems almost every summer is nearly as warm or warmer these days.

Heck, we get 1995-esque temperatures today, and people comment about how it's a mild summer of yesteryear.

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