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August Discussion/Obs

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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weathafella
weathafella

Warm today.     Very sad as our beloved doggie had to be put down yesterday evening.   14 happy years with so many snow memories. RIP Honey.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Show me on the doll where Scooter hurt you

wxeyeNH
wxeyeNH

Speaking of pictures,  here is one from my Nest Cam.  This was the July 21rst storm that gave me 1" of rain, hail and the 56mph gust.  We spent a fortune about 10 years ago and put a lightning protect

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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On 8/2/2022 at 6:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3) As John has mused about ad nauseum, we need to be constantly re evaluating our perception of how ENSO interacts with that is an incessantly evolving globe around us.

 

LOL...  but in a more useful, and fair representation of my "musings," precipitation is but a mouse in a stampede of pachyderm observations related to and/or likely being effect by CC. 

The elaborations I've written, that are either too difficult to understand ( blame the writer..fine!), or too inconvenient for others, is that the ENSO is tending to decouple from the seasonal atmospheres (summer and winter) with increasing frequency ...particularly spanning the last 15 years or so.  More extended periods of intra seasonal pattern break-downs,  where the modes stop "obeying" the statistical inference, are being observed. At other times, it seems to overly constructively interfere so vastly that this "clicks the gear" into the next registry, which displaces warm(cool) correlative regions down(upstream) - those that are at continental scales. This is screwing up teleconnector aspects ... this is a Pandora box.  Either gives the allusion of decoupling or not - which is which?  

Point being, the ENSO reliance of 1995 doesn't apply the same way.  We cannot logically, look at 1900 through 19 ... 90 and linearly predict outcomes.  And that is before adding in that the ENSO doesn't operate alone - this is before that.

If it helps ... it is documented in accredited circles, from private University sciences, to the IPCC reports.  It is not merely  'conjecture'

The stuff about the Hadley Cell expansion may or may not be physically ( as in ..wildly evolved mathematical physical equations and shit..) proven related - but I don't see how that can't be considered without adopting the admirable neolithic incompetence approach.  It very well could be playing a crucial role in driving some or much of the above - and I personally believe it does.   But, folks can disavow or accept or ignore whatever they will.  But, to me, when the HC expands - as it has been noted in above publication sources - it does tend to weaken. That's important.

The nature of the expansion - folks tend to mistake spatial growth with increasing power.. .and that's not right.  Among aspect of the expansion, causing a weakening of the easterly trade mass-balancing flow; causing inner HC domain breakdowns resulting in eddy circulations; etc... it separates(disconnects) the ENSO sea-air coupled domain from the westerlies by virtue of spatial distance. 

Ahh..that could be a great place to start in investigating the aberrant circulation behavior...etc.  

Quick and dirty 'abstract' on that posit: These are aspects of the circulation mode that then necessarily would have to effect the ability for Kelvin wave distribution, propagation therein, wind and trade-flux related sea-surface stressing ... all which feed back on any tropical/subtropical phenomenon's ability to interact and influence the behavior of the westerlies ( through dispersion mechanics along the HC polarward boundaries). 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like after a mild down, we heat up again. Augdewst.

I wonder if tomorrow and Friday are the worst aggregate "HI" of the summer - the period.   Looks like 96/74 at NWS sites, and 96/77 at home Davis', for HI's in the 105 range, both days ...for real this time. None of this DP vanishing act this time - or less of it.  And the lows tomorrow night?  ooph

2-meter T layout looks too tepid with the NAM.   But I'm not completely sold on the Euro's 98 to 100 from ALB-down the Mohawk Trail to BED... It's doing that because it has less DP...   Hmm, it fits the season's dry motif though.   I dunno - not a NAM DP handling specialist, so who knows -

If the NAM wins DP and the compromise in temperature ...that's 96/73 sack sticker irritability heat... and would be the summer's HI acme.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if tomorrow and Friday are the worst aggregate "HI" of the summer - the period.   Looks like 96/74 at NWS sites, and 96/77 at home Davis', for HI's in the 105 range, both days ...for real this time. None of this DP vanishing act this time - or less of it.  And the lows tomorrow night?  ooph

2-meter T layout looks too tepid with the NAM.   But I'm not completely sold on the Euro's 98 to 100 from ALB-down the Mohawk Trail to BED... It's doing that because it has less DP...   Hmm, it fits the season's dry motif though.   I dunno - not a NAM DP handling specialist, so who knows -

If the NAM wins DP and the compromise in temperature ...that's 96/73 sack sticker irritability heat... and would be the summer's HI acme.

We'll have to watch early next week as a plume of warm 850 Ts move in. Could be another nasty period. 

 

Meanwhile 79 here with a seabreeze.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if tomorrow and Friday are the worst aggregate "HI" of the summer - the period.   Looks like 96/74 at NWS sites, and 96/77 at home Davis', for HI's in the 105 range, both days ...for real this time. None of this DP vanishing act this time - or less of it.  And the lows tomorrow night?  ooph

2-meter T layout looks too tepid with the NAM.   But I'm not completely sold on the Euro's 98 to 100 from ALB-down the Mohawk Trail to BED... It's doing that because it has less DP...   Hmm, it fits the season's dry motif though.   I dunno - not a NAM DP handling specialist, so who knows -

If the NAM wins DP and the compromise in temperature ...that's 96/73 sack sticker irritability heat... and would be the summer's HI acme.

I'm not sold on dewpoints into the 70's tomorrow (and if it happens probably not until the evening and overnight) or Friday. I don't think it's necessary a mixing product but I'm not so sure we get the (if you want to call it this) secondary warm front to ever push through. The higher theta-e air seems to stay off to our south. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if many sites struggle even to reach heat advisory criteria (perhaps low-end). Thinking hottest temperatures tomorrow are only in the 95-98 range which would bring HI maybe just to 100 or 101. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not sold on dewpoints into the 70's tomorrow (and if it happens probably not until the evening and overnight) or Friday. I don't think it's necessary a mixing product but I'm not so sure we get the (if you want to call it this) secondary warm front to ever push through. The higher theta-e air seems to stay off to our south. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if many sites struggle even to reach heat advisory criteria (perhaps low-end). Thinking hottest temperatures tomorrow are only in the 95-98 range which would bring HI maybe just to 100 or 101. 

If it's only 95-98 tomorrow it'll be with 70+ dews. Only the NAM is like that right now. GFS, EC, HRRR keep it drier and the hot spots mix to 100-102F. Pick your poison.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Just now, dendrite said:

If it's only 95-98 tomorrow it'll be with 70+ dews. Only the NAM is like that right now. GFS, EC, HRRR keep it drier and the hot spots mix to 100-102F. Pick your poison.

But what I don't see is when we get those dewpoints working in. I totally get that if we keep higher dews it will knock off a few degrees in temps and if we don't get those dews we'll see temps a few degrees higher, but at most even the NAM only tickles with with 70-71 dews. But given the strong SW flow tomorrow I would think deep mixing wins out. but I do see what you mean about hot spots getting to 100-102...would probably be within northeast MA or southeast NH where that pocket of higher 850's are.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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40 minutes ago, wkd said:

Tip,    I understand that you are probably a very well schooled meteorologists and have a lot to offer this weather board.  But why do you feel it necessary to offer your thoughts in a manner which is incomprehensible to most weather enthusiasts like me?  Absolutely no offense intended.

Specifically ... quote a turn of phrase that was less than clear, and I will rephrase gladly. 

I'm a lousy writer. 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I went through the Jan blizzard thread for nostalgia last night. What a pants tent. At some point you and I will cower in a corner while the interior beats us with a snow shovel.

Probably won’t see anything like it again. Prolific totals and we really didn’t even get much of a prolonged event either.

I say we’ll never see anything like that again, but I’ve said that a lot over the last 10+ years… 2010-11 14-15 and the blizzard last year 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

00z MAV/MOS keeps Friday and Saturday just under 90 along the BDL-FIT-ASH-BED arc, with DPs 69 to 71.   We'll see if the 12z edges up ...

The 2-meter product at Pivotal is significantly hotter on those two afternoons..  21z soaring to 95-98 hovering that product ( I love that thing by the way...)

That seems like a huge disparity between the interpolation versus the raw model output ( MOS vs 2-meter graphics)   - I wonder why-for?   

My sci fi writer wants to presuppose that the climate change is mucking with the interpolations, because they have a climate bias built into them.

Don't they Brian?  I thought I did - I now they used to back in the day but I've not kept up with Bulletin products - the display/accessibility NCEP is providing is much much improved, however. Lol - 

Anyway, 89 at BED and the hover product pings that at 97 is large.   I wonder if in the past there's a few BDs or convection/cloud in the generalize warm frontal histories that are weighting the MOS numbers down.

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Probably won’t see anything like it again. Prolific totals and we really didn’t even get much of a prolonged event either.

I say we’ll never see anything like that again, but I’ve said that a lot over the last 10+ years… 2010-11 14-15 and the blizzard last year 

I've seen it much windier, but not those rates for 6hrs.  Usually like you said it's more prolonged, but with lower rates. I always wondered how it would stack with less wind. We had quite a bit of wind until the near end. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

00z MAV/MOS keeps Friday and Saturday just under 90 along the BDL-FIT-ASH-BED arc, with DPs 69 to 71.   We'll see if the 12z edges up ...

The 2-meter product at Pivotal is significantly hotter on those two afternoons..  21z soaring to 95-98 hovering that product ( I love that thing by the way...)

That seems like a huge disparity between the interpolation versus the raw model output ( MOS vs 2-meter graphics)   - I wonder why-for?   

My sci fi writer wants to presuppose that the climate change is mucking with the interpolations, because they have a climate bias built into them.

Don't they Brian?  I thought I did - I now they used to back in the day but I've not kept up with Bulletin products - the display/accessibility NCEP is providing is much much improved, however. Lol - 

Anyway, 89 at BED and the hover product pings that at 97 is large.   I wonder if in the past there's a few BDs or convection/cloud in the generalize warm frontal histories that are weighting the MOS numbers down.

Ah shit ...that was Thursday ... sorry.   Friday's 92 to 93 over SE zones - so it's not quite the same indictment. 

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
Just now, kdxken said:

87/60 doesn't feel too bad even working.

for some reason it feels hot to me today.   89/63 here as the average among home stations within a mile or two, which as you suggest, isn't the worst it could be exactly, but you know... I think it is the shear power of that pure unadulterated sun.  That may be the purest blue possible at this end of a any continent in a CC era - haha.  It really is instantly searing sun walking out there. Almost like the ambient light is so intense it is warming, not just the direct rays.  Yet the air T is 88  

I wonder if there's something to that.

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