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June 2022


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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and still cool for the season. A few locations could pick up some rain. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 74°

Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.0°; 15-Year: 81.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.7°

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Texas is one of the warmest parts of the country this month. DFW is having a top 10 warmest June. So it makes sense with a very strong ridge in the Plains. But the near record block just north of Hudson Bay typically doesn’t go with this type of pattern. So this is why the 100° heat near the Great Lakes has stayed to our west which is unusual. The other out of place feature is the deep trough near the Pacific Northwest.

Much stronger blocking this June for DFW top 10 warmest composite

2022 vs composite

03046483-24CB-4B84-802A-8B0B4E0C2EFC.gif.f790bf2ba5d6d06dc3bab216501ec59a.gif


BBA5451B-172A-4AB7-A5D7-B85E1151F38F.png.8156f16b79af72350c4f2735bd179db6.png

 

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The last 8 days of June are averaging  77degs.(67/87) or +3.

Month to date is  70.1[-0.8].       June should end at  71.9[-0.1].

Reached just 67 at midnight, most of day spent at 63.

Today:  68-73, wind variable, cloudy, chance of quick shower around 2pm, 65 tomorrow AM.

63*(95%RH) here at 7am.      70* at 10:30am.        73* at 1pm.        Reached  80* here briefly at 6pm.       70* at 9pm.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Texas is one of the warmest parts of the country this month. DFW is having a top 10 warmest June. So it makes sense with a very strong ridge in the Plains. But the near record block just north of Hudson Bay typically doesn’t go with this type of pattern. So this is why the 100° heat near the Great Lakes has stayed to our west which is unusual.

Much stronger blocking this June for DFW top 10 warmest composite

2022 vs composite

03046483-24CB-4B84-802A-8B0B4E0C2EFC.gif.f790bf2ba5d6d06dc3bab216501ec59a.gif


BBA5451B-172A-4AB7-A5D7-B85E1151F38F.png.8156f16b79af72350c4f2735bd179db6.png

 

Yo blue what year would be a good comparison to this year’s specifically June? Specially with the blocking up north and the strong ridge in the middle of the country

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1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

Yo blue what year would be a good comparison to this year’s specifically June? Specially with the blocking up north and the strong ridge in the middle of the country

I haven’t been able to find another June with such a strong ridge in the Plains and near Hudson Bay. My guess is that Matt Hugo is correct about the May +AAM spike and lingering blocking influence.  So we get the stronger Hudson Bay blocking running with the La Niña background state of heat and drought in the Plains. Almost looks like the +AAM blocking influence got delayed for several weeks and waited to show up in June.
 

 

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Based on what the eps shows for ending of month into July, there's some heat but nothing super sustained, and (July 4th weekend starts out warm with July 1 being about 88 near NYC, down to 84 Saturday, 81 by Sunday, 80 July 4th, etc.)  ,  gradually cooling down to upper 70s lower 80s by July 4th. With out gradually cooling into the middle to upper 70s after that weekend.  But maybe a little warmer by the last couple frames..

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I'm watching that wall of rain inch ever so slowly east and south.  Zooming into street level, it's overcast here, but 3-4 miles to my west it's been raining for an hour, and another 3-4 miles west of that is into the heavier stuff with hardly any movement.  Looks like northeast PA is getting into some heavier training precipitation.

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9 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

I'm watching that wall of rain inch ever so slowly east and south.  Zooming into street level, it's overcast here, but 3-4 miles to my west it's been raining for an hour, and another 3-4 miles west of that is into the heavier stuff with hardly any movement.  Looks like northeast PA is getting into some heavier training precipitation.

Almost looks like a PRE. But with a cutoff low instead of a tropical system to our south.

3D47EF55-EC23-4664-A187-FAED2A872BC9.thumb.png.adb5fcb0ce3c1c2ec5e9a7878d9c64e7.png

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49 minutes ago, FPizz said:

So close to you.  From my town, to Montgomery to Hopewell seems like the cutoff as of now.

Getting some drops now but its not even enough to qualify as a shower or even spritz...call it sporadic drips

 

Puts me in a conundrum  of whether to stop work or not

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