wthrmn654 Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its probably safe to assume the Saturday FROPA will be later than currently shown...most models consensus is near 21-02Z but in summer its rare models at this range are not about 12-18 hours too fast. If true it probably will lower potential of severe if its Sun AM vs Sat eve Yes good point. As long as that stands true in this unusual weather patterns though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 Down to a pleasant 60 degrees this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 I started the July thread to discuss the extended holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 The last 3 days of June are averaging 76degs.(66/87) or +1. Month to date is 71.0[-0.6]. June should end at 71.5[-0.5]. Reached 78 here yesterday. Today: 75-80, wind w. to n., clouds/sun, 68* tomorrow AM. First HW of season 6/30-7/02 looks like a shoo-in. 68*(50%RH) here at 7am. 73* at 1pm. 80* at 4:30pm. Reached 83* around 5:30pm. 76* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 Great day shaping up, sunny, dry and low 80s. Warming it by Wed withan outside chance the warmer spots can touch 90, otherwise the season's first heatwave starts Thu (7/1) - Sat (7/2). 850 temps >18c near 20C Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front. Front timing continues to adjust but overall looking like Saturday late pm through the evening and into Sunday. Sunday tossup day as to how long it takes to clear and dry out. It looks quite similar to yesterday but timing is about six hours sooner, which should see clearing in the mid - late afternoon. the 4th of July looks mainly dry, perhaps popup shower (isolated) other wise warm mid/upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90. Jul 5 and beyond. Looks overall warm, but could see storms fire 7/9th way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 Outside chance looking to have potential (EWR, LGA) ?? Record highs Jul 1 EWR: 100 (1963) LGA: 97 (2018) JFK: 102 (1963) NYC: 100 (1901. 1963) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 44 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Great day shaping up, sunny, dry and low 80s. Warming it by Wed withan outside chance the warmer spots can touch 90, otherwise the season's first heatwave starts Thu (7/1) - Sat (7/2). 850 temps >18c near 20C Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front. Front timing continues to adjust but overall looking like Saturday late pm through the evening and into Sunday. Sunday tossup day as to how long it takes to clear and dry out. It looks quite similar to yesterday but timing is about six hours sooner, which should see clearing in the mid - late afternoon. the 4th of July looks mainly dry, perhaps popup shower (isolated) other wise warm mid/upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90. Jul 5 and beyond. Looks overall warm, but could see storms fire 7/9th way out there. If ewr fails to make it to 85 today it could be their last time for quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: If ewr fails to make it to 85 today it could be their last time for quite a while 1996 goes down the drain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: If ewr fails to make it to 85 today it could be their last time for quite a while Sunday could be the next one, pending on when storms clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 Last June was a tough act to follow for Newark. It was the 2nd warmest on record. This year Newark is currently in 14th place. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 6 1984 75.0 0 7 1971 74.8 0 8 2005 74.6 0 - 1981 74.6 0 - 1973 74.6 0 9 2011 74.5 0 10 2020 74.4 0 - 1987 74.4 0 11 1989 74.3 0 12 1999 74.2 0 13 1991 74.1 0 14 2022 74.0 3 15 2001 73.9 0 16 1966 73.8 0 - 1957 73.8 0 17 1949 73.7 0 18 1976 73.6 0 19 1983 73.5 0 20 1990 73.4 0 - 1952 73.4 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 18 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark is similar to much of NJ south of the I-78 corridor with the warm departures this month. There is plenty of concrete around LGA and they have a colder than average departure. The warmest part of the region has been near Bradford, PA at +2.9° which is more rural. So just a combination of local and regional effects with the omega block. Newark can heat up very quickly with a warm downslope flow. LGA has had quite a bit of onshore flow influence. Bradford, PA is closer to the ridge axis. Good post. Bradford reached 90 on June 16, and a whopping 93 on June 22. Also an 89 degree reading on June 21. Prior to this year, the warmest June reading dating back to 1958 (when observations began at the airport) was 89, set in 2021 (June 29), 1994 (June 15 & 17), and 1988 (June 25). Who would ever think that Bradford (at 2105' elevation) would have more 90+ days than Central Park in June, and a maximum monthly reading 3 degrees higher? Even the mean maximum is only 0.4F lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Good post. Bradford reached 90 on June 16, and a whopping 93 on June 22. Also an 89 degree reading on June 21. Prior to this year, the warmest June reading dating back to 1958 (when observations began at the airport) was 89, set in 2021 (June 29), 1994 (June 15 & 17), and 1988 (June 25). Who would ever think that Bradford (at 2105' elevation) would have more 90+ days than Central Park in June, and a maximum monthly reading 3 degrees higher? Even the mean maximum is only 0.4F lower. Yeah, that 93° at Bradford established the new all-time June maximum temperature record. So the previous record high tied last June was easily surpassed. As for the Central Park high temperatures, the trees and dense foliage keep the sensor much cooler in the deep shade. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 218 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2022 ................................... ...THE BRADFORD CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 22 2022... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1957 TO 2022 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 93R 239 PM 86 1975 76 17 60 2020 MINIMUM 64 1056 PM 35 1963 53 11 43 AVERAGE 79 65 14 52 Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 93 3 2 2021 89 0 - 1994 89 0 - 1988 89 0 3 2020 88 0 - 2018 88 0 - 2012 88 0 - 2011 88 0 - 1991 88 0 - 1968 88 0 Most recent NYC ASOS photos in 2013 with overgrown vegetation and trees. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Last June was a tough act to follow for Newark. It was the 2nd warmest on record. This year Newark is currently in 14th place. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 6 1984 75.0 0 7 1971 74.8 0 8 2005 74.6 0 - 1981 74.6 0 - 1973 74.6 0 9 2011 74.5 0 10 2020 74.4 0 - 1987 74.4 0 11 1989 74.3 0 12 1999 74.2 0 13 1991 74.1 0 14 2022 74.0 3 15 2001 73.9 0 16 1966 73.8 0 - 1957 73.8 0 17 1949 73.7 0 18 1976 73.6 0 19 1983 73.5 0 20 1990 73.4 0 - 1952 73.4 0 Still ranks too high... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 53 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Still ranks too high... Why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 dewpoint in the 40's on a late summer day amazing felt kinda cool this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Still ranks too high... Just pretend like it's 50th then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 average July Temperature for Newark N.J. 1950-59..........76.82 1960-69..........76.10 1970-79..........77.27 1980-89..........78.31 1990-99..........78.72 2000-09..........76.63 2010-19...........79.87 2020................80.8 2021.................78.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 90 degree days for Newark NJ since 1933... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....31.........6......96... 2021.....45.........5....103.....2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Why? Perhaps it wasn’t a reference to the weather, but whether or not Newark deserves to rank that high in anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Last June was a tough act to follow for Newark. It was the 2nd warmest on record. This year Newark is currently in 14th place. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 6 1984 75.0 0 7 1971 74.8 0 8 2005 74.6 0 - 1981 74.6 0 - 1973 74.6 0 9 2011 74.5 0 10 2020 74.4 0 - 1987 74.4 0 11 1989 74.3 0 12 1999 74.2 0 13 1991 74.1 0 14 2022 74.0 3 15 2001 73.9 0 16 1966 73.8 0 - 1957 73.8 0 17 1949 73.7 0 18 1976 73.6 0 19 1983 73.5 0 20 1990 73.4 0 - 1952 73.4 0 its really the 18th mildest with 17 years ahead of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 3 hours ago, uncle W said: its really the 18th mildest with 17 years ahead of it... Not if you are using dense ranking like the NWS OKX climate page does. https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-use-sql-rank-and-dense-rank-functions-7c3ebf84b4e8 Differences between RANK and DENSE_RANK The difference between these two functions comes down to how they handle identical values. Let’s say we have two students who have the same grade; both scored 90s on their math test. RANK and DENSE_RANK will assign the grades the same rank depending on how they fall compared to the other values. However, RANK will then skip the next available ranking value whereas DENSE_RANK would still use the next chronological ranking value. So with RANK, if the two 90s are given a ranking of 2, the next lowest value would be assigned a rank of 4, skipping over 3. With DENSE_RANK, the next lowest value would be assigned a rank of 3, not skipping over any values. Let’s compare the outcomes of both of these functions. Again, you can see there is no rank 2 in the column using RANK in contrast to the DENSE_RANK column which contains rank 2 and ends with rank 4 despite there being 5 rows in the table. Hopefully you now understand how to use RANK and DENSE_RANK and when to use each. Typically, I use DENSE_RANK as my default rank function in SQL. I find more problems want you to go in chronological ranking order without skipping a number. However, make sure you read the problem carefully and think about the output you’re trying to achieve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Not if you are using dense ranking like the NWS OKX climate page does. https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-use-sql-rank-and-dense-rank-functions-7c3ebf84b4e8 Differences between RANK and DENSE_RANK The difference between these two functions comes down to how they handle identical values. Let’s say we have two students who have the same grade; both scored 90s on their math test. RANK and DENSE_RANK will assign the grades the same rank depending on how they fall compared to the other values. However, RANK will then skip the next available ranking value whereas DENSE_RANK would still use the next chronological ranking value. So with RANK, if the two 90s are given a ranking of 2, the next lowest value would be assigned a rank of 4, skipping over 3. With DENSE_RANK, the next lowest value would be assigned a rank of 3, not skipping over any values. Let’s compare the outcomes of both of these functions. Again, you can see there is no rank 2 in the column using RANK in contrast to the DENSE_RANK column which contains rank 2 and ends with rank 4 despite there being 5 rows in the table. Hopefully you now understand how to use RANK and DENSE_RANK and when to use each. Typically, I use DENSE_RANK as my default rank function in SQL. I find more problems want you to go in chronological ranking order without skipping a number. However, make sure you read the problem carefully and think about the output you’re trying to achieve. regular ranking was fine...no need to event the wheel again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, uncle W said: regular ranking was fine...no need to event the wheel again... Since the ranking is by temperature, it’s better to use dense rank function so numbers aren’t skipped.That’s what the NWS is trying to do for NYC top 10s. Several years can occupy the same rank since they share the same temperature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 It just depends how you look at it. You could have the highest temperature of all time but if first was reached 6 different years, you would then be the 7th highest year even though you would have the second highest actual temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 I don't think Newark temperatures are wrong. I think they just represent the densely populated NYC and immediate surrounding areas like Newark that are full of concrete and chemical plants and tons of traffic etc. Central Park is also not wrong, it represents temperatures in parks even if there in NYC. I think we can add Newark and Central Park and divide by 2. That may represent most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 Warmer air will return tomorrow. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from Thursday through Saturday. In the South, Galveston is now virtually certain to record its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was June-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +22.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.073 today. On June 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.953 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.663 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 the area from Newark southwestward to Piscataway is the hottest part of the near New jersey area...add parts of Staten island to that...both down hill from hilly areas... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 1 hour ago, lee59 said: I don't think Newark temperatures are wrong. I think they just represent the densely populated NYC and immediate surrounding areas like Newark that are full of concrete and chemical plants and tons of traffic etc. Central Park is also not wrong, it represents temperatures in parks even if there in NYC. I think we can add Newark and Central Park and divide by 2. That may represent most of the area. Central Park is wrong since the old sensor used to be out in the open instead of under the trees before the 1990s. Deep shade with leaf transpiration can shave at least 2-3° off the high temperature on sunny days. That’s why the highs used to be much warmer at Central Park before the overgrowth in the 1990s. A sensor on the Great Lawn in Central Park would be at least 2-3° warmer than under trees. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Central Park is wrong since the old sensor used to be out in the open instead of under the trees before the 1990s. Deep shade with leaf transpiration can shave at least 2-3° off the high temperature on sunny days. That’s why the highs used to be much warmer at Central Park before the overgrowth in the 1990s. A sensor on the Great Lawn in Central Park would be at least 2-3° warmer than under trees. someone with a shield and temperature probe should stand in the middle of the great lawn during the hottest part of a Sunny day and then compare readings....Newark is getting warmer and development to its west doesn't help cooling things off...Prosect Park in Brooklyn is probably cooler than surrounding built up areas...many years ago there was obs taken from that park but I have never seen them... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Central Park is wrong since the old sensor used to be out in the open instead of under the trees before the 1990s. Deep shade with leaf transpiration can shave at least 2-3° off the high temperature on sunny days. That’s why the highs used to be much warmer at Central Park before the overgrowth in the 1990s. A sensor on the Great Lawn in Central Park would be at least 2-3° warmer than under trees. Yeah I forget when they moved it. My guess is probably 1996. I was also told once snow measurements prior to the 93-94 winter are questionable (yeah we know they are questionable after too lol) but the reason told to me was they used to measure somewhere downstairs from the NWS office up til 92-93 and the measurements were likely too low most times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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