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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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After a dry few weeks we had several heavy downpours yesterday that added up to 1.51 inches as of 8 AM. We are currently experiencing an extremely heavy downpour and are probably pushing another inch since 8 AM. Any rainfall deficit for the month is now erased. FBF80F44-5E03-4D8D-9666-DDAA6141205A.thumb.png.1a5fc4d41618be5a31eca58b3fd0e7cf.png

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As we get into the busier fall/winter season please send me private message if you would like to join our discord. We have 28 members that joined and its pretty active daily. Lots of great weather discussion. We kind of decided we would do big storm threads here and day to day weather talk on the discord. Its much easier to post videos/pictures and links compared to this forum. We have a weather channel and a general discussion channel.

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On 8/23/2022 at 3:57 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

A4AAF033-1516-4CEF-9EAC-EC1FFDB0CC58.jpeg

Interesting... crazy to see my hometown has warmed over 3.5F since 1961, but not shocking. One thing I'll say is these are based on linear regressions, which are also used to estimate the trend. However - and maybe it's just me - but I've noticed these temperature trend linear regressions tend to have the majority of early years lying below them and the majority of the recent years lying above them. If the change were truly linear, you would expect a mix of years above and below throughout the period of examination. What this suggests to me is the trend is actually increasing - that is, as more and more years go by, we should expect to see the slope of the trend lines increase over time. Not a good sign.

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10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting... crazy to see my hometown has warmed over 3.5F since 1961, but not shocking. One thing I'll say is these are based on linear regressions, which are also used to estimate the trend. However - and maybe it's just me - but I've noticed these temperature trend linear regressions tend to have the majority of early years lying below them and the majority of the recent years lying above them. If the change were truly linear, you would expect a mix of years above and below throughout the period of examination. What this suggests to me is the trend is actually increasing - that is, as more and more years go by, we should expect to see the slope of the trend lines increase over time. Not a good sign.

Just to illustrate. Here is the U.S. annual mean temperature trend:

us-cag-annual-tavg-620.png?itok=Xb9W4NjC

The early years are fairly well mixed, but there's definitely some bias below the trend line up until about 1920. However, recent years are almost exclusively above trend - in some cases, way above trend. Since 1998, only 4 years have been colder than the trend, with one additional year (2010) almost smack dab on the trend line. So it looks to me like the warming is accelerating at an alarming pace - not to sound too alarmist! Trend would probably also steepen if they included data from the 1870s and 1880s. While limited most of the available data suggests this period was significantly colder than the turn of the 20th century.

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28 minutes ago, cny rider said:

A little above normal temps in September is delightful. October as well.

 

Agreed.  
 

We’re heading into kids’ field hockey and football seasons.  I recall two years ago having a game one weekend at something like 85° and high humidity followed by 45° and steady mist the following weekend.  You never know what you’re going to get this time of the year!  If I remember correctly, last year the games happened to land on almost all beautiful days.  Doubt we’ll see that again.  

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