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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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It didn't seem anywhere close to severe IMBY, but apparently the GRR ASOS measured a 58 mph gust.  It looks like the clearing line was pretty much right at KGRR when the storms rolled in.  Murky all day here with a temperature stuck around 78-82, but there was more filtered sun and temps into the middle 80s just a little south.

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LOT thoughts about later

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
324 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Leading MCS has largely moved east of the area as of mid afternoon.
Cold front at 19z was analyzed from near Green Bay southwest to Quad
Cities and then arcing west to near Kansas City. Significant cold
pool is in place in the wake of the initial round of storms, the
magnitude of which the HRRR and RAP have been struggling to resolve.
Skies are clearing out in the wake of the first batch of storms,
however recent ACARS soundings suggest the steeper lapse rates have
been overturned. Combination of the overturned lapse rates and
significant surface cold pool has likely wiped out most of the
instability over our CWA, at least for now.

GOES derived soundings and SPC mesoanalysis indicate a reservoir of
relatively steep lapse rates aloft upstream, which should be
advected back east into the area by the seasonably strong belt of
mid-level westerly winds advancing into the area ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough. At the surface, winds are quickly
swinging back around to southwesterly and there is a tongue of sfc
higher theta-e pooling just ahead of the cold front. At this point,
ACARS soundings suggest that we`d need temps solidly back into the
80s with the low/mid 70 degree dewpoints to for significant boundary
layer re-destabilization.

At this time, the area that appears to stand the best threat of
sufficient recovery of boundary layer recovery to support renewed
deep convection looks to be across our southern CWA (roughly south
of I-80). Water vapor imagery nicely depicts digging trough and
associated synoptic ascent likely to overspread northern Illinois
this evening. As the large scale ascent increases overtop of the
recovering instability ahead of the approaching cold front, it seems
probable that another round of convection will fire early this
evening. While our southern CWA will be on the fringes of the
stronger flow aloft, shear should be sufficient for at least some
threat of additional strong to severe thunderstorms assuming the
atmosphere recovers south of I-80 like it seem it will.

If severe threat does re-materialize, the primary threat should
again be locally damaging winds. Any storms that do develop will
again be very efficient rain producers and given the front`s
tendency this evening to become more aligned with mid-upper level
flow, there could be a window of some localized well training with
some low end flash flood threat prior to cold pool development and
eventual southeastward acceleration of the convection.

- Izzi
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
313 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     TSTM WND GST     STOUTSBURG              41.19N 87.12W
08/29/2022  M78 MPH          JASPER             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER RELAYED EXTENSIVE
            DAMAGE ALONG STATE ROAD 10 AND SURROUNDING
            AREAS FROM DEMOTTE TO WHEATFIELD. HEALTHY
            TREES WERE SNAPPED AT THEIR BASE, AND AT
            LEAST 7 FREE-STANDING POWER POLES WERE
            SNAPPED IN AN OPEN FIELD. A METAL ROOF WAS
            TORN OFF A FARM BUILDING AND SPREAD ACROSS A
            FIELD. THE SPOTTER MEASURED A 78 MPH WIND
            GUST BEFORE THEIR EQUIPMENT FAILED. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

 

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I'm back to living in the Midwest as of earlier this month after about 10 years away (Pennsylvania then Florida then Pennsylvania again).  I live in downtown Lafayette, Indiana, and am working as a climatologist and data programmer for the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at Purdue University.  

We had some wind gusts to 40 mph and a good 75 minutes of moderate to heavy rain.  There seemed to be a lot of dust suspended in the outflow ahead of it, which I found interesting considering that it rained last night.  

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to 2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

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