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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


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14 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Do you think this maybe how the average Roman felt circa 400 AD?

They could feel the old order collapsing around them but were not sure why?

heh... what?    - what are we talking about here?  

I was just snarking that autumns snow in october, and bud out shrubs in early decembers ...   and that it's been 80 several times in february's and march's ... and then packing pellet flurries several times in mays ( which means it's a matter of time before a synoptic wave event happens to time with one of those cold layouts).    

And I put last years f'ed up 4th of july bs right in that same oddity envelope/causality, too. 

at least...i was "thinking" all that  lol. 

but sure...  history repeats.    civilization out performs its own necessity and apathy takes over which leads to loss of competences ...inexorably ending up in self destruction?   sure -

altho, this dip shit dumb ass move by Putin has only galvanized the Euro front and it's allies that are of western cultural heritage...  a salubrious revitalization of western interests that always wants to realize societies NOT in Putin's  ( and China's taking notes) vision ... Good work jaggovs..  It's really catastrophically inept work by agency-scaled intellegentsia.  In fact, it's so badly failing logic and just "duh-ism" that it only leads me to believe that this "Existential threat ..." thing they said would imperil nukes?  It isn't really over Russia's existence... It's really about the death of him and his cohorts vision/ideologies, and being on the wrong side of history and not accepting that.  In simple terms, it is the demagogue's ambition that is under threat - not Russia.

So that kind of feeds back favorably in lot of long winded popsicle headache course work ways,  toward western civilization vitality.  ...If they don't get vaporized in the process.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The worst example of this I ever observed was more synoptic in scale ...waaay back in the early spring of 1985.  I think it was late March into early April. There was an unusual early season continental warm dome, probably anchored in a -PNA.  But, the NAO was (likely..) just neg enough, that the Maritime nadir was parked still a bit too close for comfort ... banishing New England out of the carnival mood and lilac fragrances so badly it was like reading about Eden inside an Igloo.  Oh my god.. did we hurt for it ... just like being in hell should.    It was 87 F in Albany one of those days along that five day Mardi Gras in which their exuberant lavish taunted from outside our prison.    Now, I lived in Rockport Ma at the time... so yeah that exaggerated matters, ...but trust me... it wasn't hugely better in BED-ORH in that cluster f'n rectal set up.   The hyper front had set up from like BTV to HFD ...  paralleling the NW flow aloft as it meandered around set Martime low..   Anywhere NE of that smelled like GOM lobster urine and hands were jammed in pockets. Basically, it was 80s to 38 astride the front.  We had elevated thunder one day, while staying cold... that was the warm air getting about as close as it would....  Parole denied though.  The dome and total hemisphere just modulated into a new paradigm where the ridge flattened and everything suppressed into just normal butt bang April New England.   My family had just transplanted from southern Michigan the previous year... I suppose the hidden virtue of suffering that sense of loss, as acutely exacting as it was ... The lesson was indelible.  I have never since under estimated New England's ability to prove that god is really some kind of a complete asshole -

Do you remember late March 1998? I think we hit mid 80s even in ORH during that stretch. Some spots in the CP must have been flirting close to 90F. We went to the Cape to visit my grandparents that Saturday (I think day 2 of the heat dome) and got greeted with 47F and a stiff southwest breeze…even with sun still shining. What an absolute disaster that was.
 

Then of course you prob remember how that heat ended with the backdoor CF from hell. Think we went into the 30s on 4/1 after a cheap midnight high in the 60s of what must have felt like a balmy early summer evening….then seeing 37F stratiform rain and a stiff northeast breeze during the day. 

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

I've known quite a few people who've rented houses on the cape in June to beat the high rates. They only do it once.

I went last year around Father’s Day and really lucked out. Fantastic week. The bay side warms up nicely near shore. 

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Aside from tomorrow, we’ve generally had a relatively nice Morch. Even sprinkled in 2 snow events amidst the background warmth, Other than 2012.. this is the earliest green up I have had here . The lilacs have little green blooms/ leaves . Just get thru tomorrow and it’s 60’s again mid and late week .

6XMf5lo.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Aside from tomorrow, we’ve generally had a relatively nice Morch. Even sprinkled in 2 snow events amidst the background warmth, Other than 2012.. this is the earliest green up I have had here . The lilacs have little green blooms/ leaves . Just get thru tomorrow and it’s 60’s again mid and late week .

6XMf5lo.jpg

Not sure if it’s lilac or azaleas but I’ve seen a few purple blossoms out from them. 

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Aside from tomorrow, we’ve generally had a relatively nice Morch. Even sprinkled in 2 snow events amidst the background warmth, Other than 2012.. this is the earliest green up I have had here . The lilacs have little green blooms/ leaves . Just get thru tomorrow and it’s 60’s again mid and late week .

6XMf5lo.jpg

Is it? Seems optimistic. Maybe Thursday or Friday if we don’t wedge.

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Brutal. Kids with full winter gear on while playing outside…instead of snow angels and shovels, it’s muddy puddles and sticks.

Washing the truck this morning in winter hat and gloves was not ideal . But no mud here. Dried out nicely after rain last week .

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47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Do you remember late March 1998? I think we hit mid 80s even in ORH during that stretch. Some spots in the CP must have been flirting close to 90F. We went to the Cape to visit my grandparents that Saturday (I think day 2 of the heat dome) and got greeted with 47F and a stiff southwest breeze…even with sun still shining. What an absolute disaster that was.
 

Then of course you prob remember how that heat ended with the backdoor CF from hell. Think we went into the 30s on 4/1 after a cheap midnight high in the 60s of what must have felt like a balmy early summer evening….then seeing 37F stratiform rain and a stiff northeast breeze during the day. 

Can't tell you the number of days I left my house in WST only 5 miles from the Ocean in shorts and tees and arrive at the beach  to freeze. As soon as you hit the terminal moraine the temp can drop 20 degrees. 

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37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Washing the truck this morning in winter hat and gloves was not ideal . But no mud here. Dried out nicely after rain last week .

We have slight wetlands behind the backyard as we’re nestled 3/4 up the hill  and the front slopes away and down to my neighbors towards the street so there tends to be areas that collect runoff if it’s not graded properly. Of course my kids happen to find those spots and bring their hot wheels cars thinking their racing their version of a Cars 3 mudtrack with Mrs Fritter.

RwD3w4G.jpg
 

My friend cut down 8 trees in the fall in back there (it used to be heavy forrest and junk weeds) and graded the back but will come back in May to fill that area above before we bring in a few truck loads of topsoil to finish the backyard project.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Aside from tomorrow, we’ve generally had a relatively nice Morch. Even sprinkled in 2 snow events amidst the background warmth, Other than 2012.. this is the earliest green up I have had here . The lilacs have little green blooms/ leaves . Just get thru tomorrow and it’s 60’s again mid and late week .

6XMf5lo.jpg

The only thing turning green here in Enfield is some grass.  Supposed to be 18F here Tuesday morning. The overnight average temperature climbs above freezing here on 3/30. So getting close. 

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have slight wetlands behind the backyard as we’re nestled 3/4 up the hill  and the front slopes away and down to my neighbors towards the street so there tends to be areas that collect runoff if it’s not graded properly. Of course my kids happen to find those spots and bring their hot wheels cars thinking their racing their version of a Cars 3 mudtrack with Mrs Fritter.

RwD3w4G.jpg
 

My friend cut down 8 trees in the fall in back there (it used to be heavy forrest and junk weeds) and graded the back but will come back in May to fill that area above before we bring in a few truck loads of topsoil to finish the backyard project.

Where is tornado damage from there?

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Do you remember late March 1998? I think we hit mid 80s even in ORH during that stretch. Some spots in the CP must have been flirting close to 90F. We went to the Cape to visit my grandparents that Saturday (I think day 2 of the heat dome) and got greeted with 47F and a stiff southwest breeze…even with sun still shining. What an absolute disaster that was.
 

Then of course you prob remember how that heat ended with the backdoor CF from hell. Think we went into the 30s on 4/1 after a cheap midnight high in the 60s of what must have felt like a balmy early summer evening….then seeing 37F stratiform rain and a stiff northeast breeze during the day. 

Oh yeah I do ...  I've waxed nostalgia over that historic heat, and it's rude ending, more than once in social media weather lore. 

I was an upperclassman back then, finishing up at UML.   It was a three day "heat wave" - it wasn't ... but merely missing by a degree and decimal's worth.   If memory serves it was 87 on March 29, then 88 and 91 were the high temperatures ( at the college weather station) for the 30th and 31st.   The lows at night were like 45 that first night, then a couple of double nickles, making the total diurnal departure 30 points or more.  

Around 3:30 pm on the 31st, the temp was bouncing between 89 and 90 over that hour, doing the game of 'will it' ping 92.  I was looking at NWS ASOS obs for it, because the BD was actually well modeled.  For that era of modeling ...?  BDs were even worst surprises at times than they still are even in today's modeling luxury.  These days BDs are picked out well enough, but it's just a matter of position/timing and strength. Seldom do they blind side a nice afternoon.  But this was an unusual case - what came along and didn't break the heat, it actually moved it to another planet.  

It was so powerful and physically constructed in the total circulation mode of over eastern Canada and the NE U.S., even the Japan model woulda nailed it - if it existed.  While it was 90 F on the monitor, the ASOS out of CAR, ME had a 'RMK' for a 47 mph wind gust out of the ENE, the temperature was 37.  I mean recall briefly looking off at an angle, "...54 F colder then here in the Merrimack Valley!"

The front was also visible on base reflectivity channel.  It was like a side-winder serpent on the scan, snaking it's way SW through NE NH and down the Maine coast, with attitude.  Still, walking out of doors into that dry heat, flags lazily wobbling in the SW zephyrs, it was weird knowing the titanic is about to sink in that setting, and how the late adolescence and early adulthood carnival mood across the campus were all too oblivious.  It didn't wait till late evening to come through up there in Lowell.   I remember sitting looking out the window into the dusk from Smith Hall, and the bushes outside the window were thrashing away like there was an alley cat fight - some kind of big wind struck.  The front arrived right around 6:30 pm... Makes sence...  It was about 40 mile NE of PWM at 3:30, moving SW at 40 mph at least - it was really leaning trees when it came through.  It came through at almost wind advisory level.   

Not sure what the rate of the temp fall was.. .but it was 38 F the next morning there, and it really didn't move much during the day.. maybe 40.  Basically, 50 point correction.   I've witnessed some 45ers on a couple of occasions, but never 50+  That's that is like the Feb 1978 of BDs

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26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats ESNE on the cmc. 

The 00z Euro carried along a rendition of that thing ... but far less amplified.  

That range of time has been somewhat signaled for awhile in the GEF - based teleconnector numbers.  It hasn't really presented in the operational GFS, if perhaps yet.   

One thing about the 00z suite, however, is that the EPS has a signal that, relative to an ensemble mean, is more significantly coherent than the operational run. It's sort of a 2nd derivative in that sense...    Comparing the significance.   Anyway the mean carries an eastern TV low off the MA and well formats it east of Cape Cod, spanning 36 hours, with an open negative tilt wave that is deepening while it passes through.  

It's nestled temporally in that same signal from the GEFs ...so is a bit of cross guidance ensemble support .. .

There's a signal there.  that's it.   how much or little, it's emerging ... we'll see.  Could turn out to be a big nothing with radiative forcing the hemisphere ...

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