White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Hrrr seems to of drastically changed at 00z. Not surprising How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: How so? Nvm I have all my models jumbled up in my head. I'm thinking of rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: How so? Less icing for the immediate suburbs. 18Z 00Z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 seems like there's no model that doesn't show a severe ice storm somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Basically 27 hours of rain starting around 4am this morning (Thurs) ----changing to 6 hours or so of Freezing Rain Friday AM----changing quickly early Friday evening to Sleet/Snow and Snow Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Nam output isn't good for coast either in terms of icing, if it actually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 February will probably have more rain than snow just like January did. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobydoo1 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 That's quite a bit of rain to be followed by snow and near single digit temps....even if it's not a freezing rain event at the onset.....it's gonna get interesting..... I don't think I've ever seen salt trucks out in a heavy rainstorm......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: February will probably have more rain than snow just like January did. January had more rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, eduggs said: February will probably have more rain than snow just like January did. Parts of Long Island had 2ft with the last storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: January had more rain ? 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Parts of Long Island had 2ft with the last storm. I think even Islip had more rain than snow (liquid) last month. Most everywhere else got much more rain than snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Surprised there isn’t any flood watches given the snowpack and 1-2 inches of rain next 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Surprised there isn’t any flood watches given the snowpack and 1-2 inches of rain next 36 hrs Too much uncertainty when it is not clear if 1 inch of rain will be in liquid form or frozen form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, eduggs said: I think even Islip had more rain than snow (liquid) last month. Most everywhere else got much more rain than snow. It was still a month of below normal temps and above normal snowfall for most of this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Surprised there isn’t any flood watches given the snowpack and 1-2 inches of rain next 36 hrs a good chunk of snow in the city is gone. I was quite surprised to see that when I landed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: a good chunk of snow in the city is gone. I was quite surprised to see that when I landed Agree as I said earlier it should be mostly gone by Friday morning within the city unfortunately. LI maybe should have a flood watch as they have a deeper pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I think 12Z Friday which is I think 8 am is the key hour as the bulk of the remaining liquid falls between 12Z and 18Z (8 am and 2 pm). If the models that have the city flipping to ice close to that hour are right it will get real nasty. If it doesn't flip until significantly later it probably will be a more minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It was still a month of below normal temps and above normal snowfall for most of this forum. Well sure. Since none of us average a lot of snow, one big storm exceeds the average. The thing was 2 of 3 significant snowstorms hit exactly the same areas. And the 3rd hit SNJ. So it ended up being a month of big winners and big losers - with a sharp line of demarcation. I guess there was also a solid event for northern Sussex and Orange Counties - but that ended up as mostly slush further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Well sure. Since none of us average a lot of snow, one big storm exceeds the average. The thing was 2 of 3 significant snowstorms hit exactly the same areas. And the 3rd hit SNJ. So it ended up being a month of big winners and big losers - with a sharp line of demarcation. I guess there was also a solid event for northern Sussex and Orange Counties - but that ended up as mostly slush further south. It was still a decent winter month and pretty damn cold. I had snow cover for most of the month even though I am one of the few who actually had below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: a good chunk of snow in the city is gone. I was quite surprised to see that when I landed Lots of melting today. With 1-2" of rain, foggy weather and 40s it'll all be gone. Note HRRR and 0z Nam trended warmer. All in all this will be a rain event with perhaps some mixed precip before it ends. You really have to be well N&W to see significant impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 When it snows, I go outside every chance I get. I'm not one of these people who enjoys it as modeled output on my screen or through my living room window. I like to actually experience it. This winter I've probably seen 10 or 12 inches cumulative. I've had an inch or two of snowcover for a few weeks now. On paper, that doesn't sound too bad. But the enjoyment level has been really low. The snow has come in about 5 minor events... mostly at night or with very light intensity. The actual opportunity to enjoy falling snow has been very limited. The biggest accumulation was soaked into a puddle of mashed potatoes before dawn. The 2nd biggest was a 3-hour burst that also occurred before dawn. I'm still waiting for something decent. It doesn't have to be a blizzard, just a solid snowstorm. I think it's actually been over a year now since the last significant event locally. There's still time to spread the wealth, but the window is closing. I don't want to have to wait another 10 months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Lots of melting today. With 1-2" of rain, foggy weather and 40s it'll all be gone. Note HRRR and 0z Nam trended warmer. All in all this will be a rain event with perhaps some mixed precip before it ends. You really have to be well N&W to see significant impacts. Hrrr still not quite within range ideally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Lots of melting today. With 1-2" of rain, foggy weather and 40s it'll all be gone. Note HRRR and 0z Nam trended warmer. All in all this will be a rain event with perhaps some mixed precip before it ends. You really have to be well N&W to see significant impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It was still a decent winter month and pretty damn cold. I had snow cover for most of the month even though I am one of the few who actually had below normal snowfall. The snow to ice event set up your snowpack. South of Sussex Co. NJ it was mostly slush turned to a thin glacial crust. That still beats bare ground though. But overall I don't care for cold without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, eduggs said: I think even Islip had more rain than snow (liquid) last month. Most everywhere else got much more rain than snow. I mean this area averages around 4-5 inches liquid of precip each month (incl Jan) so in most winter months we would typically expect more rain than snow anyway unless it was pretty anomalously snowy month (like perhaps Islip). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 GFS not really backing down, got to admire if nothing else has persistent it's been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: I mean this area averages around 4-5 inches liquid of precip each month (incl Jan) so in most winter months we would typically expect more rain than snow anyway unless it was pretty anomalously snowy month (like perhaps Islip). Yup. Only in very snowy or perhaps dry months would we expect more snow than rain in NYC in January. I think the average is closer to 4, but it's true either way. I guess very snowy months would probably be about equal rain and snow on average, which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS not really backing down, got to admire if nothing else has persistent it's been. The GFS has backed off very gradually for many cycles. Over time it has been increasing the rain and decreasing the snow and sleet. None of the individual runs looks like a big change, but taken together it has shifted from a potentially significant frozen event to rain ending as freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 49 minutes ago, eduggs said: I think even Islip had more rain than snow (liquid) last month. Most everywhere else got much more rain than snow. That inland runner that crushed buffalo gave us like 2” of rain so probably, idk how much LE we got from the blizzard and early january snowstorm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: The GFS has backed off very gradually for many cycles. Over time it has been increasing the rain and decreasing the snow and sleet. None of the individual runs looks like a big change, but taken together it has shifted from a potentially significant frozen event to rain ending as freezing rain. The changeover seems to still be around the same time every run but it seems to have gotten drier in terms of qpf after the changeover so agree with you its becoming more liquid less frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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