2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm expecting Western Caribbean activity in October. 

These youngsters are too spoiled. Some years have October storms like Keith or Lili. These spoiled hurricane trackers are used to Greek crap like Hurricane Zylor by September 25th.

 

[Normandy]

GFS at hour 384 is suggestive of an active western basin.  I think October is gonna nail us personally....I easily see something getting going down there and getting yanked north.

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Normandy said:

GFS at hour 384 is suggestive of an active western basin.  I think October is gonna nail us personally....I easily see something getting going down there and getting yanked north.

 Where do you live? Miami area by chance?

 All eight 3rd year cold ENSO analogs back to the the 1800s had significant activity on the Gulf Coast of FL, especially latter September and beyond. That's my highest risk area this season of getting hit.

[Normandy]

I live in Los Angeles lol (praying for remnant low Kay)

[Prospero]

Outside today and tonight in Gullfport, FL (Tampa Bay), it feels like a Gulf system is brewing. I don't know of anything and haven't had time to dig deep. But if it gets a name, what will it do?

[Reginaldo Lourenco]

With this weak hurricane season and apparently September is going to be the same way.  
Can we have a very active October and November?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Reginaldo Lourenco said:

With this weak hurricane season and apparently September is going to be the same way.  
Can we have a very active October and November?

 So far, there's no indication of a weak September. It has actually been more active than average in terms of ACE thanks to not one but two hurricanes already with Earl getting quite strong now.

 Meanwhile, 0Z ICON illustrates well the danger of the AEW just off Africa developing into a weak surface low but also remaining weak through 55W and thus less likely to recurve safely. This has it still weak at 19N, 58W, moving W toward the far NE Caribbean with no trough looking to recurve it out anytime soon after and with it moving toward very warm SSTs. This would be a potentially dangerous setup if it were to verify similarly.

 

Edit: 

 After just one run without it, it is back on the 0Z UKMET though it is more delayed than ever:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 19.0N  46.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 13.09.2022  132  19.7N  48.3W     1010            29
    0000UTC 14.09.2022  144  20.8N  50.5W     1009            29

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, Reginaldo Lourenco said:

With this weak hurricane season and apparently September is going to be the same way.  
Can we have a very active October and November?

Are you looking at the models?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 hours ago, Prospero said:

Outside today and tonight in Gullfport, FL (Tampa Bay), it feels like a Gulf system is brewing. I don't know of anything and haven't had time to dig deep. But if it gets a name, what will it do?

There is a deep upper level low in the NC Gulf, the entire Gulf is under unfavorable shear.  That, per GFS, will last at least a week.  No Gulf homebrew anytime soon.

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Are you looking at the models?

I am, and they're showing basically nothing going out to late September. GFS has zero cyclogenesis through 384 hours, and all Euro has is fantasy storms way out east which it continues to gradually drop as time moves up which it's been doing all year. Euro's fantasy eastern-MDR storms are worse than GFS's Caribbean fantasy storms. Outside of the Caribbean the GFS has been pretty spot on this year and it's showing a dead rest of September. 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are you looking at the models?

The same models that have had a train of ghost storms all season only for little to materialize? I swear the folks on here who act like this is an active season are no better weenies than the snow freaks.

And don't give me the ACE bs -- no one cares how much power is churning off the coast of Greenland.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The same models that have had a train of ghost storms all season only for little to materialize? I swear the folks on here who act like this is an active season are no better weenies than the snow freaks.

And don't give me the ACE bs -- no one cares how much power is churning off the coast of Greenland.

People do

Why are you here if you don't care about ACE ?

It's active compared to what we saw.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People do

Why are you here if you don't care about ACE ?

It's active compared to what we saw.

Compared to the quietest period in Atlantic hurricane history? Sure. I'll throw you that bone.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Compared to the quietest period in Atlantic hurricane history? Sure. I'll throw you that bone.

I don't care about ace either but plenty of people do.

I will give you that it has been boring but prime time is about to come up. We also still have all of September and October but by then , home grown storms will show its face. 

[ldub23]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The same models that have had a train of ghost storms all season only for little to materialize? I swear the folks on here who act like this is an active season are no better weenies than the snow freaks.

And don't give me the ACE bs -- no one cares how much power is churning off the coast of Greenland.

I agree. Its a totally  dead season. I dont  care about a  greenland hurricane. As  i always  say go into the  winter weather  thread in the  midatlantic forum in Feburary when winter  has  been snowless  in DC with temps  6 degrees above  normal and claim how great a winter  its  been because Butte  Montana has  had  4 blizzards and  is  10 degrees  below  normal. They would think you are an idiot.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I don't care about ace either but plenty of people do.

I will give you that it has been boring but prime time is about to come up. We also still have all of September and October but by then , home grown storms will show its face. 

This is analogous to the snow weenies annual "we can get good storms in March and April"....

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This is analogous to the snow weenies annual "we can get good storms in March and April"....

And we do

[WxWatcher007]

 

It’s all or nothing with this crowd.

July and August were dead. Historically dead. Fact.

September has only produced two storms so far. That’s not a lot. Fact.

Both eventually became systems that put us above normal ACE for the period. Fact. 

Would you rather have 5 middling tropical storms with two threatening the US or two hurricanes that churn OTS? You get to the same place objectively but it’s different subjectively. 

Also, late September and the first 2/3 of October are literally the downward slope of the climatological peak, with a secondary “peak” of hurricane activity in October. It’s not analogous to a snow weenie talking about March and certainly not April. 

I really don’t care if people crap on the season—it’s been an all-time underperformer thus far. The MDR has been a nearly unmitigated disaster. But we can do a lot better than analysis that thinly veils whether we like tropical activity or not. 

Over the next six weeks, climo shifts out of a continuously hostile tropical Atlantic toward the Western Atlantic, where stability and to a lesser extent wave breaking induced TUTTs are less of an issue. Yes, there are probably going to be issues too in this part of the basin, but I don’t think we’re barreling toward either hyperactive or dead. Most of the time we end up near the middle anyway.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

It’s all or nothing with this crowd.

July and August were dead. Historically dead. Fact.

September has only produced two storms so far. That’s not a lot. Fact.

Both eventually became systems that put us above normal ACE for the period. Fact. 

Would you rather have 5 middling tropical storms with two threatening the US or two hurricanes that churn OTS? You get to the same place objectively but it’s different subjectively. 

Also, late September and the first 2/3 of October are literally the downward slope of the climatological peak, with a secondary “peak” of hurricane activity in October. It’s not analogous to a snow weenie talking about March and certainly not April. 

I really don’t care if people crap on the season—it’s been an all-time underperformer thus far. The MDR has been a nearly unmitigated disaster. But we can do a lot better than analysis that thinly veils whether we like tropical activity or not. 

Over the next six weeks, climo shifts out of a continuously hostile tropical Atlantic toward the Western Atlantic, where stability and to a lesser extent wave breaking induced TUTTs are less of an issue. Yes, there are probably going to be issues too in this part of the basin, but I don’t think we’re barreling toward either hyperactive or dead. Most of the time we end up near the middle anyway.

 Very well said. Do you know of anyone posting here who has claimed this season to have been anywhere close to active?

  Onward we go, whether inactive or not from this point forward. In addition to Earl, I'm currently most interested in whether or not the AEW just offshore will end up another model ghost. I wouldn't bet against it ending up a ghost, but nobody knows for sure. It is the uncertainty that makes forecast discussion interesting and is why we have forecasting threads. Otherwise, it would be boring from a forecasting perspective. If this one were to end up a ghost, it would end up fooling about all of the models as even the GFS has blown this one up on some runs.

 I continue to expect the W Caribbean "season" (mainly 9/20-10/20) to be interesting like it has been in many years of this active era and likely the most memorable part of this season. Analogs suggest for FL Gulf coast to be hit and to be at the highest risk this season. I've been saying this since late July. The season to date is largely irrelevant in regard to this.

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Very well said. Do you know of anyone posting here who has claimed this season to have been anywhere close to active?

  Onward we go, whether inactive or not from this point forward. In addition to Earl, I'm currently most interested in whether or not the AEW just offshore will end up another model ghost. I wouldn't bet against it ending up a ghost, but nobody knows for sure. It is the uncertainty that makes forecast discussion interesting. Otherwise, it would be boring from a forecasting perspective. If this one were to end up a ghost, it would end up fooling about all of the models as even the GFS has blown this one up on some runs.

 I continue to expect the W Caribbean "season" (mainly 9/20-10/20) to be interesting like it has been in many years of this active era and likely the most memorable part of this season. Analogs suggest for FL Gulf coast to be hit and to be at the highest risk this season. I've been saying this since late July. The season to date is largely irrelevant in regard to this.

I think there’s going to be a lot of research on why we’ve underperformed so much during August in the tropical Atlantic. At this point, I need to see something develop out there to believe it. I’ve pulled the plug on that part of the MDR. 

Just look at the naked swirl that is 95L. Can’t make it up  

But it’s far too early to even look at the plug for the western Atlantic. 

I agree with the eastern Gulf being the main zone for landfall risk, and then the Carolinas (really NC) to a lesser extent. While the more frequent troughs will probably keep whatever develops out in the Atlantic OTS, when TC genesis happens in the western Atlantic it would pull those north/NE. It’s not terribly hard to get something to pop under a trough by the time we get to October.

[WxWatcher007]

And to be clear that doesn’t necessarily mean I’m talking high end stuff every week in October lol. 

[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

It’s all or nothing with this crowd.

July and August were dead. Historically dead. Fact.

September has only produced two storms so far. That’s not a lot. Fact.

Both eventually became systems that put us above normal ACE for the period. Fact. 

Would you rather have 5 middling tropical storms with two threatening the US or two hurricanes that churn OTS? You get to the same place objectively but it’s different subjectively. 

Also, late September and the first 2/3 of October are literally the downward slope of the climatological peak, with a secondary “peak” of hurricane activity in October. It’s not analogous to a snow weenie talking about March and certainly not April. 

I really don’t care if people crap on the season—it’s been an all-time underperformer thus far. The MDR has been a nearly unmitigated disaster. But we can do a lot better than analysis that thinly veils whether we like tropical activity or not. 

Over the next six weeks, climo shifts out of a continuously hostile tropical Atlantic toward the Western Atlantic, where stability and to a lesser extent wave breaking induced TUTTs are less of an issue. Yes, there are probably going to be issues too in this part of the basin, but I don’t think we’re barreling toward either hyperactive or dead. Most of the time we end up near the middle anyway.

The water off the east coast is very warm even up this way .

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think there’s going to be a lot of research on why we’ve underperformed so much during August in the tropical Atlantic. At this point, I need to see something develop out there to believe it. I’ve pulled the plug on that part of the MDR. 

Just look at the naked swirl that is 95L. Can’t make it up  

But it’s far too early to even look at the plug for the western Atlantic. 

I agree with the eastern Gulf being the main zone for landfall risk, and then the Carolinas (really NC) to a lesser extent. While the more frequent troughs will probably keep whatever develops out in the Atlantic OTS, when TC genesis happens in the western Atlantic it would pull those north/NE. It’s not terribly hard to get something to pop under a trough by the time we get to October.

 They can do all of the research they want, but there will still be both underperforming and overperforming seasons in the future. This uncertainty is what makes forecasting the tropics very interesting and it will never go away.

 Regarding what's to come or not to come with the AEW just offshore Africa, whereas the 12 GFS is doing nothing with it like in recent runs, the ICON has it as a TS ~600 miles E of the Virgin Islands starting to recurve NW at the end as it senses a subtle weakness ahead of a trough moving off the NE US. This could easily just be a ghost, especially when considering the MDR since Bonnie's precursor. The ICON has a history of being too bullish and the trend of the other models has been toward not developing this.

Edit for 12Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.9N  43.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.09.2022   96  14.9N  43.8W     1009            25
    0000UTC 13.09.2022  108  16.8N  46.0W     1008            31
    1200UTC 13.09.2022  120  18.4N  48.8W     1007            38
    0000UTC 14.09.2022  132  18.9N  51.1W     1007            33
    1200UTC 14.09.2022  144  19.3N  53.9W     1006            39

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Would you rather have 5 middling tropical storms with two threatening the US or two hurricanes that churn OTS? You get to the same place objectively but it’s different subjectively. 

I'll speak for myself here but I would much rather see the two middling tropical storms threatening the US.  I mean, hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic are only useful as pretty colors on a satellite image.  I mean, have you guys seen that impressive storm on Jupiter?  According to wikipedia it's been active for at least 357 years and produces winds up to 268 mph.  What an impressive ACE score that produces!

[Floydbuster]

 

I'm surprised the models are not more enthusiastic with the wave that just left Africa.
 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 hours ago, Normandy said:

GFS at hour 384 is suggestive of an active western basin.  I think October is gonna nail us personally....I easily see something getting going down there and getting yanked north.

The 384 GFS is right about as often as I have won Powerball....

[Great Snow 1717]

31 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'll speak for myself here but I would much rather see the two middling tropical storms threatening the US.  I mean, hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic are only useful as pretty colors on a satellite image.  I mean, have you guys seen that impressive storm on Jupiter?  According to wikipedia it's been active for at least 357 years and produces winds up to 268 mph.  What an impressive ACE score that produces!

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'll speak for myself here but I would much rather see the two middling tropical storms threatening the US.  I mean, hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic are only useful as pretty colors on a satellite image.  I mean, have you guys seen that impressive storm on Jupiter?  According to wikipedia it's been active for at least 357 years and produces winds up to 268 mph.  What an impressive ACE score that produces!

That’s fair lol but be careful we don’t need another morality debate. 
 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

I'm surprised the models are not more enthusiastic with the wave that just left Africa.
 

 Check out the latest SAL map. There is a strong outbreak with the accompanying stratocumulus that gets as far south as 10N just to it's NW!

[GaWx]

 We could use a separate banter/let off steam/why it has been inactive tropical thread imho.