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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think the last few weeks has shown that the NAM is not reliable at all.  Brad P even mentioned concerns about its reliability over the last few years since they are transitioning to FV3 and HRRR.  
If you throw out the "bad runs", you also need to throw out the "good" runs. 

Why is this a "bad" run compared to 06z? 

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.64290548bd53ccb9ed878ffcb4b311a5.gif

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I think what we're seeing is the mods having difficulty handling the last minute phase possibility. The NAM actually trended better this run for that. IMO there will likely be a band setting up over central NC tomorrow night/Sat Morn that will pivot east. The strength of the band will be totally dependent on how much phasing we see at the last minute. More phasing and this band could drop 6+. Less phasing and it's just some snow squalls.

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14 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Everyone is focused on precip when the low hasn't even formed yet. Models are hydrostatic. 500mb is what should be analyzed. 

This, 1000% this, if the 500 Placement is where we need it Tomm the Precip will take care of itself… and for now as you said that was a better run in the uppers 

 

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2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

This, 1000% this, if the 500 Placement is where we need it Tomm the Precip will take care of itself… and for now as you said that was a better run in the uppers 

Yea I wholeheartedly agree with this. So many of us want the surface to look what we want it to look like with LP placement/moisture/moisture transport etc.. with there being additional phasing being modeled it will work itself out if it continues that way up until game time. I sense some type of sneaky last minute type setup for some of us. This is a VERY difficult setup to have the models nail down to the tee. A lot of moving pieces.

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This setup really will be interesting tomorrow night. There likely will be localized areas that benefit from small scale features and get some decent banding. From what I’m seeing tho this will not be an area-wide score, though I think most areas see some snow. I think 0.5”-1.5” from the foothills east is a good bet but someone in there will get 3-4” where impossible to predict meso features develop. Nothings changed on that front since yesterday 

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So Hrrr, Rap, 3km Nam, Euro all showing heaviest snow axis running up and down basically I77. I'd say that area right now is looking to have the best shot for several inches. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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7 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

So Hrrr, Rap, 3km Nam, Euro all showing heaviest snow axis running up and down basically I77. I'd say that area right now is looking to have the best shot for several inches. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I think it’s more to do with the Instability in this area as Eric mentioned in that tweet, so really we may not know until Tomm 

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