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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


Sandstorm94
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6 minutes ago, msuwx said:

This one is quite vexing because of the lack of support for the UL-induced band with the RGEM and NAM. 
 

I still feel fairly confident it happens….but what a low confidence forecast. 

Ik you can’t speak for anyone but you… but Think GSP thinks even with limited QPF in general what we do see we will waste trying to get to 30-32? (CLT Metro) . I could see that outcome leaving us high n dry more than it just never occurs but I’m not an expert by any means 

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12 minutes ago, jlh said:

Seems as though AKQ is going with the idea of less accumulation even in coastal NE NC. Afternoon update has most of the snow falling just above freezing except for a few hour span. Cut back from 3-6" to less than 2". Hopefully we can snag a bigger window at freezing than they are thinking but that onshore NE flow, makes a lot of sense why the temps were bumped up.

Yikes... they did... 2-3" for the immediate Hampton Roads area...

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1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

Ik you can’t speak for anyone but you… but Think GSP thinks even with limited QPF in general what we do see we will waste trying to get to 30-32? (CLT Metro) . I could see that outcome leaving us high n dry more than it just never occurs but I’m not an expert by any means 

Just look at the totals for the February 16, 2013 event for a high-end realistic expectation.  thermal profiles were similar for that event too.  If you get convective/possible thundersnow... the surface will be sub-32 within a minute or two.  If you only get 5/100th of liquid from a fringe band... sure, probably not adding up. But if you get 1/2 inch of liquid in an hour or two right under a heavy band... it'll pile up fast.

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4 minutes ago, VARTV said:

Yikes... they did... 2-3" for the immediate Hampton Roads area...

Yup. Seems surface temperatures are going to have a hard time getting down the freezing until near sunrise Saturday morning (back side)so while we might get a lot of snow in the sky, unless its convective/heavy it isn't going to last long on the ground. Makes a lot of sense though, often the story with nor'easters in our area.

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Looking at all the guidance, I'm pretty confident that Coastal area's of South Carolina from somewhere between Charleston and Myrtle Beach will probably see a dusting to an inch. Most of the Hi-RES models send the meat of the meso-low remnants through that area late Friday Night/Early Saturday morning.

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2 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

12km NAM is down near freezing at 9z so it's just a matter of how this thing develops. You get those heavier rates and you're golden. 

May not matter a whole lot if that dry slot sets up over us. It's all good though, i'll take whatever. Last weekend kind of made the season for us lol.

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26 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ik you can’t speak for anyone but you… but Think GSP thinks even with limited QPF in general what we do see we will waste trying to get to 30-32? (CLT Metro) . I could see that outcome leaving us high n dry more than it just never occurs but I’m not an expert by any means 

I think there’s just more uncertainty than normal that that snow band will set up and exactly where it will. Probably better to play it very conservative and ramp-up than the other way around. 
 

could be one of those things where a lot of the accumulations that do occur or mainly on the grassy and elevated surfaces with it taking a while for the surface temperatures to cool. Then again, if this band performs well with rates as some previous setups have done, that won’t matter much.

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26 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Just look at the totals for the February 16, 2013 event for a high-end realistic expectation.  thermal profiles were similar for that event too.  If you get convective/possible thundersnow... the surface will be sub-32 within a minute or two.  If you only get 5/100th of liquid from a fringe band... sure, probably not adding up. But if you get 1/2 inch of liquid in an hour or two right under a heavy band... it'll pile up fast.

I literally posted a video of that day (February 16, 2013) in the Sanitorium thread, and what happens if you're under a meso band. Went from 43 degrees to 31 in a matter of minutes with heavy snow. It was textbook.

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