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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


Sandstorm94
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8 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I wouldn't be so hung up on QPF. This likely won't be big storm. But given the setup it has a good shot of over-performing. Everything will be reliant on how this system phases. Right now the jackpot zone looks along I-85 but this is a fluid situation etc.. That can move or expand quickly. 

gonna be lots of Cape watching Tomm for sure 

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23 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

That 2009 storm was absolute torture for those of us living in Caldwell County.  That lee side minimum was horrific.

My first Son was born on 3/4/09 and We drove from 3" at the house into around 10" in Cleveland county that morning. 

Here is the case study 

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/

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Honestly you can look at the models till your eyes bleed but it's going to be a nowcast situation. Setup at 5h is there though and getting a quick 2-4 under this setup should be fun. I feel like this is one of the few times it could really catch a lot by surprise but optimism in the southeast is like wishing on the lottery haha. 

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After the model runs today my thoughts are this has devolved into a novelty event. These meso-features never work out for many and that looks like our only mode for snow with this. I think most will  see flakes but accumulation will be extremely limited and localized. Will be fun now casting but this will not be an event where general accumulation should be expected outside a few bands. On to the next one 

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