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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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18z NAM further SW and even a bit sharper with the trough axis at long range. I know it’s the long range NAM but it’s continuing the trend. With the absence of significant blocking I do wonder if we may end up with development too far west and a rainstorm. I know we’re not there yet but these are all significant and honestly expected trends with a low of this strength. Something to watch at least. For now we seem to be in a decent spot to get SOMETHING out of this

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

18z NAM further SW and even a bit sharper with the trough axis at long range. I know it’s the long range NAM but it’s continuing the trend. With the absence of significant blocking I do wonder if we may end up with development too far west and a rainstorm. I know we’re not there yet but these are all significant and honestly expected trends with a low of this strength. Something to watch at least. For now we seem to be in a decent spot to get SOMETHING out of this

Certainly possible but the ridge axis out west is in a good spot for a Miller A coastal system. 

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From Mike Maze:
Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now.
Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

From Mike Maze:
Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now.
Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.

I'm not forecasting anything as of now, but the models never look good until they do. If all you do is look at the ensemble statistical output you're just a modelologist. Nothing more.

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14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I'm not forecasting anything as of now, but the models never look good until they do. If all you do is look at the ensemble statistical output you're just a modelologist. Nothing more.

In reality though, whether we agree or not as brick stated earlier it seems Pros haven’t dethroned the EURO as forum junkies have…. 

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11 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

In reality though, whether we agree or not as brick stated earlier it seems Pros haven’t dethroned the EURO as forum junkies have…. 

I would still rather have the euro in my corner as well. In general it's still the best in the medium range.

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9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I would still rather have the euro in my corner as well. In general it's still the best in the medium range.

I agree…. I think it’s only been “dethroned” here bc it hasn’t made us feel warm n fuzzy lately. If it was in GFS/GEFS position for this weekend Mets would be all over it for “Chances” 

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The 18z GFS is a backslide in the wrong direction for sure. The primary wave in the southwest starts off in good position but the phase is more partial and late. Almost a miss by the northern stream wave. Hopefully a blip but not reassuring of course. Even most of the New England forum won't like this one.

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

From Mike Maze:
Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now.
Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.

This is why I come to these boards 

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

From Mike Maze:
Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now.
Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.

They have been saying the Euro did the best with the last storm, too, and it didn't.  They always hug the Euro.

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