Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I’m being serious. Does that idea make sense? Why should energy be held back? When the Euro used to do that, we knew it was most likely wrong about that bias. That’s my point. 

I'm being serious too, of course it makes sense, the models dont do large scale things that dont make sense. The question is, is it right. The EPS is showing great continuity right now.

[dryslot]

Mood swings every model run.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Mood swings every model run.

Welcome to the board!

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just checked…0z King Jong-un on weathermodels was a crusher, again. 

It’s the most consistent holy smokes.  

[JC-CT]

EPS mean is a brilliant solution 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Here’s 0z eps…wish it was Thursday already:

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I'm being serious too, of course it makes sense, the models dont do large scale things that dont make sense. The question is, is it right. The EPS is showing great continuity right now.

Sure they do. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

EPS mean is a brilliant solution 

It is, Not as good as 0z though, Just a tic east of it.

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS slays all.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It is.

That little cutback on the western fringe mostly seems to be just the normal ensemble behavior of reducing spread, but havent confirmed that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not on this one. My concern is it is doing its slow cave thing...I think them Europeans purposely programmed continuity into it.

I def hope reality is a bit later with the capture than the EURO....I'm all set playing with Boxing day fire back east. We would hope it played out like 12/92, but I don't want to rely on that.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That little cutback on the western fringe mostly seems to be just the normal ensemble behavior of reducing spread, but havent confirmed that.

I made an edit, Yeah, Its not a robust as 0z on the west side but wouldn't toss it though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It is, Not as good as 0z though, Just a tic east of it.

Excellent

[JC-CT]

That's a 980 mslp on an ensemble mean at 120 hours

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t see anything caving at the moment? Take compromise of the two, and it’s still a great hit. 

Goals posts and then the Messenger shuffle ends up bouncing off the east upright.

[ineedsnow]

some insane members on the 6z Euro woah

[JC-CT]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

some insane members on the 6z Euro woah

Like Ray said, gotta watch for trends of LBSW

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS slays all.

Yup rooting for all to score. Hate it when half of the forum is left out.

Hopefully GFS and CMC match this afternoon ( I know still early in the game and a complete miss is still on the table).

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

I can’t get over the strength of so many of those. Just jaw dropping in that regard. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Got the next frame?

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro control would bury us slow mover

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Mood swings every model run.

glad we logged off for the last 2 of them.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks for this.

Now we have to work on cutting out those eastern outliers.

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

How do you not like that look. It’s sensational…for all. 

[dryslot]

Seeing H5 closing off south of LI on the 0z run follows the theory that it tends to happen further south then modeled, Would rather see that further north really.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Like Ray said, gotta watch for trends of LBSW

Lots of abbreivations have emerged that I don't know.  LBSW?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I put them all in one post for easier weenie viewing pleasure. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Lots of abbreivations have emerged that I don't know.  LBSW?

We need a pinned thread with an acronym guide.  I was just about to ask the same question about LBSW.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Ray have a therapy session with Dr Phil?  my god, losing his shit over model runs left and right.