Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

If this is the eastern goal post, I can live with near a foot...sucks for you, though.

 

[wxeyeNH]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s a different look in the upper levels. Apples to oranges

Just using the Weatherbell site, the GFS for Plymouth NH 12Z  1.32"   18Z  .21"

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d disagree there . They are never weighted like 12 and 00z

we refer to them as happy hour runs

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Doesn’t suck here at all 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Doesn’t suck here at all 

Consider yourself saluted.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

If this is the eastern goal post, I can live with near a foot...sucks for you, though.

that's a big if

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, GEFS will probably look better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

that's a big if

Well, right now it is.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Consider yourself saluted.

I mean I look at that and think 6-12” if you account for eastward bias and deform /mid level band west . If you are basing your arrow maps verbatim off of that. 21 guns in the air man 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GEFS will shift west and Anthony will arrest someone 

I love how no matter what weather forum I go on, everyone knows who Anthony/MetFan is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean I look at that and think 6-12” if you account for eastward bias and deform /mid level band west . If you are basing your arrow maps verbatim off of that. 21 guns in the air man 

You don't understand...it gets going later on that run, so deformation doesn't really apply until around my latitude and really further north.

[CoastalWx]

Actually the GFS and Euro are not far apart now. The Euro is a little deeper with the trough and really curls up the height field to bring the low closer, but same type of shape, orientation etc.

[PhineasC]

I’d rather not rely on a late hook as this thing escapes east personally. Hopefully we get back to the look from last night. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You don't understand...it gets going later on that run, so deformation doesn't really apply until around my latitude and really further north.

I understand completely 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

GEFS better.

Isn't it east of 12 Z?

[wxeyeNH]

Here is a comparison of 12Z and 18Z GFS qpf

[78Blizzard]

[PhineasC]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Here is a comparison of 12Z and 18Z GFS qpf

Yes, it’s a mess. Hopefully it was just the eastern envelope run again. 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As other Mets have said, we are not worried about that.

 

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Isn't it east of 12 Z?

Yup, we begin the slip east now. 18z RGEM also leaving energy behind and would be east as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I understand completely 

I'm not saying that will happen....I'm just saying ON THAT RUN, there is no big band to the west. in SNE.

NNE, yes.

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Honestly just happy the GFS didn't keep going west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You need the mid levels to crank to get that band.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GEFS will shift west and Anthony will arrest someone 

They're not west, That i can tell you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

They're not west, That i can tell you.

Setting the goal posts....

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

They're not west, That i can tell you.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

Yup, we begin the slip east now. 18z RGEM also leaving energy behind and would be east as well

Dude this always happens with every storm storm you know it.

[EastonSN+]

It's actually a pretty large jump east all the way up. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

18z Wednesday the main cort will be out of Canada and into an area with better RAOB coverage. So there's that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yikes....

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yikes....

Weird