Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Torch Tiger]

ICON looks about right

[dryslot]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

NNE is always a miss until 36 hrs and then you deform 2’. Must be comforting to know that even if the models show 1” you have a 50/50 chance at 20”. Lol

Not where i sit at 44/70, I need a near perfect track.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

It was west of the 0z run, I just looked, Nothing wrong with that look at this lead.

Anthony sitting in NYC might want to sit this one out in this sub forum

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not where i sit at 44/70, I need a near perfect track.

What is your yearly average 

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Anthony sitting in NYC might want to sit this one out in this sub forum

He's giving us the NYC take of the storm which is giving out mixed signals.

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

What is your yearly average 

76

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. This is a great shot for east zones. Hope it works out for ya’ll. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

76

Would you say most from nickles and dimes or from perfect tracks. 

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

For the models to February 2013 every storm. To lock in to a solution 6 days out and not change.

In all seriousness, this is the time frame where modeling tends to make sizeable corrections towards the general solution, often moving the same way wrt to certain facets over multiple cycles...I think the concern is the possibility that 48 hours from now, we will need a 400 mile correction.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. This is a great shot for east zones. Hope it works out for ya’ll. 

Agreed we are a long shot at best. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. This is a great shot for east zones. Hope it works out for ya’ll. 

The type of storm though if we can get enough west movement you get in monster deforms. Let's do that!!

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Would you say most from nickles and dimes or from perfect tracks. 

For coastal's, Its all about track, Anything moving ENE is no good for here,  SWFE's are generally very good, I miss very few, Clippers too, But have not seen many recently, But have one tuesday.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed we are a long shot at best. 

Disagree, a long shot at best insinuates we are completely out of the game. Couldn’t be further from that at this particular juncture. We have a shot at this. That is all. That’s the message. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Disagree, a long shot at best insinuates we are completely out of the game. Couldn’t be further from that at this particular juncture. We have a shot at this. That is all. That’s the message. 

All we need is a blocked field goal and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, but when was the last time that happened.

[dryslot]

I don't know how anyone can think at day 6 that anyone's out really.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

All we need is a blocked field goal and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, but when was the last time that happened.

Had both happen last night, One for a TD..............

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

All we need is a blocked field goal and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, but when was the last time that happened.

Yeah, this is more like we need a field goal in the 4th to tie w/ 6 minutes left in the quarter. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

For coastal's, Its all about track, Anything moving ENE is no good for here,  SWFE's are generally very good, I miss very few, Clippers too, But have not seen many recently, But have one tuesday.

Yeah, Tuesday looks good up there.  Down here on the other hand.......

I've been toying with a trip up next weekend--hopefully we'll get that track.

[JC-CT]

I think the PNA ridge looks a bit better this GFS run

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah, Tuesday looks good up there.  Down here on the other hand.......

I've been toying with a trip up next weekend--hopefully we'll get that track.

1-3" type deal, Nothing big.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Had both happen last night, One for a TD..............

Yup! Great game but left me wondering if Rodgers is overrated. 11 and 10 post season record.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I think the PNA ridge looks a bit better this GFS run

H5 is different on this run. More amped through 90 out west

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup! Great game but left me wondering if Rodgers is overrated. 11 and 10 post season record.

His time in GB has run out.

[MJO812]

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

H5 is different on this run. More amped through 90 out west

One of the multi-cycle corrections I was talking about is that the missed Wednesday deal keeps getting flatter/more progressive...that seems to be flattening heights upstream of this one. That trend continues on 12z. Probably bad.

[ROOSTA]

Slip-sliding away? Not necessarily, the players have yet to enter the playing field. 
WAY to MUCH emotional posts, (taken verbatim) is a weenie trait) do not fall onto that trap. The mean trough is still present, hgts upstream, downstream are going to fluctuate, strength of vorticity, orientation of trough axis will change. It's an OP model output. IMHO it's wrong especially with such lead-time.
Relax, because nobody can control the chaos.
It's only a threat, being something to track is better than nada.     

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't know how anyone can think at day 6 that anyone's out really.

People are shook.

[JC-CT]

Of course, a better pna ridge and stronger sw could offset that and then some. I guess we will see, only 2X something cycles to go

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

People are shook.

Badly it seems.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The type of storm though if we can get enough west movement you get in monster deforms. Let's do that!!

Definitely. I like the S to N trajectory systems…just need to weaken the kicker a tad and pump the wc ridge.