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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It's not really each model run, though. The storm has trended worse and worse today with each model run after just looking awesome 12 hours ago, and only 48 hours before go time. Sorry, but that is an epic collapse by the models. 

No one has whines as hard as you on these boards. You will get snow. It may not be as much as some models had but the triangle is going to get over an inch to several inches which is a win anytime.

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4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

If you would bother to learn anything you'd know the models are a guide not a map. For 10 years of being on the board you should be able to look at the models, remember how storms have played out in the past and then decide for yourself what is likely to happen. Not live and die by each model run FFS. 

Just explain it like it's the Pirate Code. It's really more guidelines rather than rules.

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4 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Quantum computing  and super computers has hit major breakthroughs. Even with today's computing technology, you could develop a algorithm. It comes down to staffing. Not many people are AI coders. Hopefully that changes more. 

Every industry requires a consumer base and most companies rely on vendors to advance their technology. It’s too expensive to implement and build internally. We are talking about maybe a dozen models here and that’s it. It’s not worth it financially for a third party to develop and staff individuals for an industry that won’t grow any larger tomorrow than it is today. There’s no money in it for private companies.

So then you have to rely on the government to pay. By the time governments approve funding (local or national) it’s always too little too late. The infrastructure alone for these models is massive and can’t keep up with the changing landscape of technology and is many times ancient. I’ve seen the systems a lot of this data is on, they’re old and many times past end of life. Due to the criticality of these systems, money spent on up time/availability is far more important than AI and so on and they can’t fund that properly. 
 

At the end of the day most people in the country could care less about how accurate these models are and how far out they’re accurate. And I highly doubt many would agree they should pay more money so they can be advanced even further. 
 

From a technology perspective it’s unfortunate as I agree there could likely be major advances in accuracy. But at the same time that’s what makes the people like Matthew East and Brad P and so on special. They know the climo where they live and can use human intellect paired with these models to predict much more accurately than any model does or could. 

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Just now, burgertime said:

If you would bother to learn anything you'd know the models are a guide not a map. For 10 years of being on the board you should be able to look at the models, remember how storms have played out in the past and then deciding for yourself what is likely to happen. Not live and die by each model run FFS. 

I agree with this statement and that this is probably a classic NE NC SE Va with some expansive precip shields N and W like typical setups. Seen this snow setup pan out with a big event every 4-5 years or so. If Mets just solely relied on models what is the point then? AKQ issued watch for 6-8 in SE Va NE NC with the afternoon package

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KILM..

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Shallow arctic air moving into the area Thursday night. A very
chilly rain falling will start to turn to freezing rain from NW to
SE, not long after midnight over far interior zones and closer to
daybreak along the immediate coast. And while the forecast has not
changed much in the last 12 hours or so there still seems to be a
distinct possibility that the vertical thickness of the cold air may
be on the rise and at least part of the area winds up with more of a
sleet storm that a near full duration freezing rain event. If so
this will cut down on the potential for ice accretion. Sleet
certainly poses travel hazards all its own, but tends to be less
hazardous than pure FZRA. This is due to the fact that the warm nose
now looks less pronounced and a broad baroclinic zone nearly stalls
parallel to the coast. The immediate coast may also stand to see
lower ice amounts due to a brief afternoon rise (barely) above
freezing. Freezing rain persists along the coast for most of Friday
night while inland the cold air thickens in height and sleet and
eventually snow become favored. Most areas appear to change over to
all snow as the precipitation tapers off leading to small
accumulations nearly area-wide that may total almost a half inch
over interior/west of I95 counties. Due to the uncertainties
discussed above all of the Carolina NWS offices have decided to hold
off on upgrading the Winter Storm Watch at this time.
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3 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Every industry requires a consumer base and most companies rely on vendors to advance their technology. It’s too expensive to implement and build internally. We are talking about maybe a dozen models here and that’s it. It’s not worth it financially for a third party to develop and staff individuals for an industry that won’t grow any larger tomorrow than it is today. There’s no money in it for private companies.

So then you have to rely on the government to pay. By the time governments approve funding (local or national) it’s always too little too late. The infrastructure alone for these models is massive and can’t keep up with the changing landscape of technology and is many times ancient. I’ve seen the systems a lot of this data is on, they’re old and many times past end of life. Due to the criticality of these systems, money spent on up time/availability is far more important than AI and so on and they can’t fund that properly. 
 

At the end of the day most people in the country could care less about how accurate these models are and how far out they’re accurate. And I highly doubt many would agree they should pay more money so they can be advanced even further. 
 

From a technology perspective it’s unfortunate as I agree there could likely be major advances in accuracy. But at the same time that’s what makes the people like Matthew East and Brad P and so on special. They know the climo where they live and can use human intellect paired with these models to predict much more accurately than any model does or could. 

NCEP staff should be training in AI as virtually all sectors in IT are incorporating it, or they can outsource the work offshore. There are numerous public and private stakeholders that rely on accurate modeling. Inaccurate modeling is a disadvantage to the consumer. Sorry mods for my banter! 

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RAH Update:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 PM Wednesday...

...Winter storm still expected Fri/Fri night...

The evolution and impacts of this upcoming event are becoming
clearer, although differences in the details at this range persist.
Still appears that the most wintry precip will fall Fri/Fri night.
We`ve seen a slight colder trend in the models and slightly lower
QPF, esp on the western edge, but overall the areas of highest
impact are roughly unchanged, with the most snowfall expected from
the Triangle to the ENE toward Roanoke Rapids/Tarboro, and the
greatest ice accumulation in our SE, south and east of Wadesboro-to-
Tarboro line. Will maintain the winter storm watch for now, given
that these greatest impacts will be beyond 36 hours.

Thu/Thu night: Round one of this event looks like a fairly low
impact, although some advisory-worthy wintry precip is expected
after nightfall Thu. The phasing of the polar and subtropical
streams into an expansive trough from N Que through the Upper
Midwest down to NW Mexico will result in a fast and perturbed SW mid
level flow from TX through the Mid Atlantic region, as an Arctic
front approaches, dropping SSE through the area during the
afternoon. Will stay with likely to categorical pops as a stream of
nearly 1" PW advects in from the SW. Expect the rain to transition
to a brief wintry mix before becoming mostly snow starting late
afternoon from N to S, as the column cools below freezing throughout
the low and mid levels. As the front settles just to our S and E Thu
night with frigid low level air pouring in and the upper jet core
just to our N and W, the stage will be set for multiple rounds of
initially weak/flat surface lows tracking along the front, with
forcing for ascent focused on the equatorward side of the upper jet
core. Precip through much of Thu night shouldn`t be especially
heavy, given the more broad mid-upper-level-sourced lift and
initially weak/flat advection pattern, in addition to the expected
period of drying aloft (including in the mixed phase region) which
should give us a relative lull in precip late Thu night into Fri
morning. Expect light (under an inch) snow amounts across the N and
W CWA, and very light icing across the SE through Thu night. After
highs Thu in the mid 40s NW to upper 50s SE, afternoon temps should
tumble into the 30s and lower NW to SE starting mid afternoon. Lows
in the upper teens to upper 20s.

Fri/Fri night: We await the arrival of the sharpening, but still
positively tilted, shortwave trough from the St Lawrence Valley down
through the Ohio Valley/Mid South on Fri. While the bulk of the
wintry precip should fall in this window, with the arrival of peak
DPVA and upper divergence within the RRQ of the strengthening upper
jet, questions remain, esp regarding how far inland the warm nose
penetrates and how quick and amplified the trough becomes. It does
still appear that the primary surface low that forms and strengthens
along the front offshore will be sufficiently flat, with a muted
advection pattern and passing N of our latitude, which should
somewhat limit the degree of wrap-around precip back into VA/NC Fri
night. This also favors broader corridors of mixed p-type. Our
latest storm totals depict a light glazing mainly S and E of the
Triangle, with the highest in the far SE sections S and E of a
Laurinburg-to-Goldsboro line, which should see a tenth to third of
an inch of ice accrual. Snowfall should be highest in our NE,
ranging across central NC from just an inch or two in the Triad to 3-
5 inches from the Triangle to the ENE to Rocky Mount, Tarboro, and
Scotland Neck. If the offshore low strengthens more than expected
and tracks closer to the coast, we could see more banding and
greater totals near the VA border and in our far NE. Precip and
clouds will hold temps way down Fri, with Arctic air in place, so
still expect highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Precip, likely ending as
light snow and then a little freezing drizzle as we dry out aloft,
should be exiting NE sections during the early Sat morning predawn
hours. Lows Fri night in the teens to lower 20s. -GIH
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Latest from Mike Maze at WRAL @ 4:30PM

There's growing confidence that Friday is going to be the day we are going to see our snow. Here's what think we should see throughout the day here in the Triangle. I believe most of the viewing area will see some snow with the most the east.

 
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2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This is a weird run. Brings back moisture at 57 largely due to a strong vort overhead. Would likely wring out all the moisture. This honestly isn't the worst solution. Especially compared to the NAM run. 

Yea- that would be pure powder too

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