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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

One thing I'd like to add- I think sometimes everyone (mets, hobbyists, whoever) can fall into the pitfall of humanizing models too much- I see some "I trust the Euro over everything" like the Euro is a close friend you've been gossiping with, or "the GFS has been hot this month" as if the GFS is Klay Thompson. This isn't a message saying not to rely on models for known strengths and accounting for known biases- but at the end of the day every model is just a supercomputer taking in data, running it through different recipes of the same planetary laws and equations, and spitting stuff out and I think it's good not to get too caught up with the narrative behind each model. 

Goes back to the old saying, "meteorology over modelogy"...LOL!

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9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough.  The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind.

The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 

12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. 

 

Yep, Burrel that's a great summation.  Seems we've seen energy get left in the SW often over the last decade.  Euro will be very telling today.  

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Going to go forth and say I don't like the Christian McCaffery model either, funny enough that northern shortwave was solidly south of the GFS but the precipitation response was much more muted in comparison. Probably some other stuff going on but you'd expect to see more expansive precip with the Canadian.

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Please God let the GEM be right
Please God let the GEM be right... (No ice)f54833b8964be623f13f12c2199a9fdb.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk



This would be much preferred to the all ice forecast that NOAA just changed to for NE SC.
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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

Going to go forth and say I don't like the Christian McCaffery model either, funny enough that northern shortwave was solidly south of the GFS but the precipitation response was much more muted in comparison. Probably some other stuff going on but you'd expect to see more expansive precip with the Canadian.

Maybe they ran it to death like the Panthers did with McCaffery. 

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14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

One thing I'd like to add- I think sometimes everyone (mets, hobbyists, whoever) can fall into the pitfall of humanizing models too much- I see some "I trust the Euro over everything" like the Euro is a close friend you've been gossiping with, or "the GFS has been hot this month" as if the GFS is Klay Thompson. This isn't a message saying not to rely on models for known strengths and accounting for known biases- but at the end of the day every model is just a supercomputer taking in data, running it through different recipes of the same planetary laws and equations, and spitting stuff out and I think it's good not to get too caught up with the narrative behind each model. 

Easy for you to say, caught my wife with the NAM lastnight.

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IMO, I think eastern NC is the place to be with this type of set-up. I am trying to think of a time when a front stalled along the coast and moisture works it way all the way back to the mountains, and I really do not know of any off the top of my head for a winter storm. Not saying it is impossible, just a lot has to go right. Coastal areas have the better chance right now.

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IMO, I think eastern NC is the place to be with this type of set-up. I am trying to think of a time when a front stalled along the coast and moisture works it way all the way back to the mountains, and I really do not know of any off the top of my head for a winter storm. Not saying it is impossible, just a lot has to go right. Coastal areas have the better chance right now.
Warmer version of the 2018 Coastal Cutter is what comes to mind

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19 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Please God let the GEM be right
Please God let the GEM be right... (No ice)f54833b8964be623f13f12c2199a9fdb.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Yes, please let this happen. I got gas for the generator just in case the icefest happens.

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Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough.  The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind.
The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 
12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. 
 

Are you thinking this for the first wave, second wave, or both waves of precip?

I remember events where precipitation was supposed to fill in from the east and it never did.


.
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15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

UK is another I 95 special but trended east from last run 

sn10_acc.us_ma (16).png

I looked under the hood and I want to couch that for a zone between Raleigh to Norfolk a decent amount of this accumulation is from Thursday night action.

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I really think east of I-77 is looking good right now. I-95 and east looks really good. Everything just points that way right now. West of I-77 not totally out of the woods yet, but this is really looking to be a more coastal event.

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