Itstrainingtime Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12z NAM 12k has snow confined to western PA with the low centered just east of Charlotte at 7pm tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 @Bubbler86take the PBP, I'm trying to multitask anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 12z NAM 12k has snow confined to western PA with the low centered just east of Charlotte at 7pm tomorrow evening. You still get some extended COB love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Nam Kuch when most of the accumulating snow is gone. The very low totals near the Chesapeake are due to rain and a bit less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: 86, I think both of us would take 3-4” in a heartbeat. Also blowing snow might be a problem with winds gusting 30mph Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 86, I think both of us would take 3-4” in a heartbeat. Also blowing snow might be a problem with winds gusting 30mph Friday afternoon I am good with it but its touch and go with that progression. Low really south. Off to an appt so my last PBP for the morning :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 One more map to close out the Nam. Too bad much of this happens while dark. 3K Kuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Boy that sure fizzled...went from 4-6” to about 1” keep posting the maps appreciate it! Keep on tracking!! Snow gods aren’t looking down on us this winter. Nut my coal stoker is pretty clean. The secret is getting clean coal from the mines that has been washed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I’m liking the progression of models this go around. Hope we continue to improve on 12z big boys.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Out of pocket but saw the Gfs snow map. Mostly 1-3 for LSV using kuch. Less for msv and usv. It's a bit south as to the low position. Looks like some transfer issues/holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Rgem 3-5 for Lsv, 2-4 north Valley's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Bub looks like we’re going to have the cold the next few days. Could you get some precipitation shipped in for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Bub looks like we’re going to have the cold the next few days. Could you get some precipitation shipped in for us? Sounds like the Canadians are doing their best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 CTP crowd pleaser....well its the best we got... for now. No BIG winners but we all get to play in it..I consider that a win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I think 2-4 is the best call right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Still a nice cad setup for Sunday on the gfs. Could even be snow to sleet to ice. Less for me on the western front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Still a nice cad setup for Sunday on the gfs. Could even be snow to sleet to ice. Less for me on the western front. Thanks yep looking good a few days of winter before the dry and cold set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: I’m liking the progression of models this go around. Hope we continue to improve on 12z big boys. . I think its likely that most of us should be getting something. Gettin close enough that big shifts (bad or good) are diminishing. One caveat to this deal is that there is less worry about timing/handoffs etc. its just a simple storm riding the boundary below us and throwin qpf up our way. I think for a multitude of reasons, that we sometimes overthink it a bit-or just expect 70% failure and want to find out how we do that instead of just looking at it for what it is. I understand that for sure, but IMO this one has been "easier"...if you know what I mean. Does that guarantee anything....hell no, but other than that stupid little fly on the screen that was off GA coast that Bubbles and I were mentioning....no big surprises. Well for sanity's sake....I hope it ends this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I change my MDT prediction to 2.2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Norther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I rike norther... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Thanks yep looking good a few days of winter before the dry and cold set in. Don't forget the mid Jan "hope time" if things progress close to what was shown last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: I rike norther... Us too Scooby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Don't forget the mid Jan "hope time" if things progress close to what was shown last evening. It should happen because I won't be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, paweather said: It should happen because I won't be here If it looked a day or two before your trip like you’d end up missing the Blizzard of ‘22, would you cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: If it looked a day or two before your trip like you’d end up missing the Blizzard of ‘22, would you cancel? Very Likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Can we lock this in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, pasnownut said: CTP crowd pleaser....well its the best we got... for now. No BIG winners but we all get to play in it..I consider that a win. I could see this as a likely solution, with the exception of coverage being a bit overdone. West Virginia and northern MA coastal areas likely to do the best. Just a nice little winter storm, nothing too intense but makes for a pretty scene. The column has great temps throughout and looks decently saturated. I think we see solid ratios out of this and would not be at all surprised for must of the LSV to see a few inches, with a couple lollipops in the standard high hill locations and places like South Mountain. Another thing that keeps showing up on the short term models is the sped-up timing of this thing, with snow likely moving in tomorrow evening and being out of here long before most of us awaken on Friday. Should be a fun little event, just manage expectations accordingly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 This one’s for you, @paweather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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