Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[canderson]

29 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I had to leave for the day right after the snow squall ended this morning, which best estimate I could get was about an inch. This apparently happened at 336pm this afternoon and it came with a 40.3mph sustained. 

Attn: @canderson lol 

 

 

 

Damn you win lol. My highest was 49. It’s really calmed down in the past hour - gusts now just in the upper 20s. 

[Voyager]

Check out the 0z GFS...

 

[MAG5035]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Check out the 0z GFS...

The distance between big snow dump and heartbreak is about the same as the distance from Tamaqua to the lower end of Harrisburg lol. Although in the rest of the LSV where there’s not big snow it printed out 2-4” of sleet. 

I haven’t really gotten into this potential the last few days but it’s probably time I should start diving into it. Been waiting to see what it looks like more in the mid-range. Going back earlier this past week I really wasn’t sure there was going to be much favorable this coming week but I suppose the second half of this month is working out pretty close to how I laid it out back in my last longer pattern post back on the 7th (changeable but still a chance for opportunities). At any rate, I’m not getting too hung up on snow/ice maps for now with this threat later next week. Track of the low needs to stay pretty decently under PA to secure a more/mostly frozen outcome for the forum majority. Anything else is going to be a mess. I haven’t really commented much on the threat but I have been watching and I think the thing that sticks out to me is that the high being progged to the north IMO looks to be the best presentation I’ve seen for an event all winter so far (strong and well placed). So I think chances are pretty good that this is going to be some kind of a longer duration wintry event. All the other details regard p-type/amount are going to be a crapshoot as it always is. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The distance between big snow dump and heartbreak is about the same as the distance from Tamaqua to the lower end of Harrisburg lol. Although in the rest of the LSV where there’s not big snow it printed out 2-4” of sleet. 

I haven’t really gotten into this potential the last few days but it’s probably time I should start diving into it. Been waiting to see what it looks like more in the mid-range. Going back earlier this past week I really wasn’t sure there was going to be much favorable this coming week but I suppose the second half of this month is working out pretty close to how I laid it out back in my last longer pattern post back on the 7th (changeable but still a chance for opportunities). At any rate, I’m not getting too hung up on snow/ice maps for now with this threat later next week. Track of the low needs to stay pretty decently under PA to secure a more/mostly frozen outcome for the forum majority. Anything else is going to be a mess. I haven’t really commented much on the threat but I have been watching and I think the thing that sticks out to me is that the high being progged to the north IMO looks to be the best presentation I’ve seen for an event all winter so far (strong and well placed). So I think chances are pretty good that this is going to be some kind of a longer duration wintry event. All the other details regard p-type/amount are going to be a crapshoot as it always is. 

I agree that the High strength & placement looks very good with this Thursday night & Friday event.

The model runs that have brought the good snow further south in PA show a weaker & further south 1st wave earlier on Thursday.
 

This allows the Cold fresh High to entrench further south and keeps the boundary closer to the MD line. This then produces for southern PA more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain with the main second wave overnight Thursday through Friday.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 6z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 14 here. Looks like the highest wind gust yesterday in CTP land was 56mph somewhere along I70 in Fulton County. End of next week certainly looks intriguing. 

[Voyager]

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 14 here. Looks like the highest wind gust yesterday in CTP land was 56mph somewhere along I70 in Fulton County. End of next week certainly looks intriguing. 

Low was 11.5 here. Not sure what the highest wind was here. My location is sheltered by a V shaped narrow valley as well as a neighborhood full of houses, so my peak gust was 23 mph. More open areas must have been much higher as we had a considerable amount of folks without power here yesterday afternoon and night. Ours flickered a few times, but stayed on.

As for the late week threat, it sure does look intriguing. Who gets wet, white, or glazed over is still a question, but an event of some kind looks very likely. Even CTP has rather high pop's for an event that's 4-5 days away.

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Low was 11.5 here. Not sure what the highest wind was here. My location is sheltered by a V shaped narrow valley as well as a neighborhood full of houses, so my peak gust was 23 mph. More open areas must have been much higher as we had a considerable amount of folks without power here yesterday afternoon and night. Ours flickered a few times, but stayed on.

As for the late week threat, it sure does look intriguing. Who gets wet, white, or glazed over is still a question, but an event of some kind looks very likely. Even CTP has rather high pop's for an event that's 4-5 days away.

I have an accu-rite weather station and the wind sensor hasn't worked right since i got it as a gift but those winds yesterday afternoon were fierce and my low this morning was 12 

[Bubbler86]

Down to 9 here. 

[Voyager]

21 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I have an accu-rite weather station and the wind sensor hasn't worked right since i got it as a gift but those winds yesterday afternoon were fierce and my low this morning was 12 

This is my second station. My first one was an Accu Rite, and this one is an Ambient Weather. On both stations, I've not been able to record a gust over 30 mph. Even in Hurricane Sandy, the Accu Rite only measured a mid 20's reading. Unless I bought two different stations with defective wind sensors, I'm thinking it's my location that's giving me the low readings. I guess the only way to know would be to try out a station with one of those new hypersonic sensors to see what I'd get with that.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Down to 9 here. 

My overnight low in Marysville was 14

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

This is my second station. My first one was an Accu Rite, and this one is an Ambient Weather. On both stations, I've not been able to record a gust over 30 mph. Even in Hurricane Sandy, the Accu Rite only measured a mid 20's reading. Unless I bought two different stations with defective wind sensors, I'm thinking it's my location that's giving me the low readings. I guess the only way to know would be to try out a station with one of those new hypersonic sensors to see what I'd get with that.

This is typical of home stations. Just never able to site them in a location that gets good exposure for wind, too much surface friction everywhere. The best I’ve seen is my buddy who installed his about six feet above his roof haha, and even with that yesterday was the first 40mph gust he has recorded in the year it has been up. 

[pawatch]

11 degrees this morning. Sun rise before 7:00 am.

Peak wind gust yesterday for me per NWS 45 mph.

When that squall come through yesterday, it was about 10 minutes of WOW!

[paweather]

Still looks like a good front end dump thanks for the updates everyone. 

[CarlislePaWx]

It's pretty wild watching the pendulum swing back and forth with the Thu/Fri storm p-types.  The 6z run took away a lot of the snow with me getting around 2" total.  The sleet shot up dramatically with my area almost the bullseye for sleet accumulations of around 2".  Freezing rain is not so bad with around 0.15".  So, on to 12z we go.  Still around 16 more runs before the start of the event...lol.

My low this morning was 12.0 exactly.

@Voyager...I can tell you that there is nothing wrong with your new station's anemometer.  It is your location / exposure hampering the good gusts.  I don't have good exposure at my new home unfortunately also.  My peak wind yesterday was 29mph.  I know it was considerably higher than that.  As is always the problem with most weather stations where all the sensors are together, most people will mount the station closer to the ground than the rooftop because of accuracy of the temperature.  For me, personally, the accuracy of my temperature readings outweighs my wind accuracy and I accept that.  My sensor is at 2 meters which is NWS protocol.  Wind measurements are taken at 10 meters.  The only person I've ever known who had a 10 meter tower for the anemometer is @Cashtown_Coop.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

29 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

It's pretty wild watching the pendulum swing back and forth with the Thu/Fri storm p-types.  The 6z run took away a lot of the snow with me getting around 2" total.  The sleet shot up dramatically with my area almost the bullseye for sleet accumulations of around 2".  Freezing rain is not so bad with around 0.15".  So, on to 12z we go.  Still around 16 more runs before the start of the event...lol.

My low this morning was 12.0 exactly.

@Voyager...I can tell you that there is nothing wrong with your new station's anemometer.  It is your location / exposure hampering the good gusts.  I don't have good exposure at my new home unfortunately also.  My peak wind yesterday was 29mph.  I know it was considerably higher than that.  As is always the problem with most weather stations where all the sensors are together, most people will mount the station closer to the ground than the rooftop because of accuracy of the temperature.  For me, personally, the accuracy of my temperature readings outweighs my wind accuracy and I accept that.  My sensor is at 2 meters which is NWS protocol.  Wind measurements are taken at 10 meters.  The only person I've ever known who had a 10 meter tower for the anemometer is @Cashtown_Coop.  

My buddy’s anemometer above his roof that I referenced earlier is probably at least ten meters but it’s still in the midst of a very hilly development packed with other houses, so friction is still an issue. It’s just so damn hard to get good wind readings. The airports are really the only places I go to for those since they are well sited for it. 

[Voyager]

34 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

It's pretty wild watching the pendulum swing back and forth with the Thu/Fri storm p-types.  The 6z run took away a lot of the snow with me getting around 2" total.  The sleet shot up dramatically with my area almost the bullseye for sleet accumulations of around 2".  Freezing rain is not so bad with around 0.15".  So, on to 12z we go.  Still around 16 more runs before the start of the event...lol.

My low this morning was 12.0 exactly.

@Voyager...I can tell you that there is nothing wrong with your new station's anemometer.  It is your location / exposure hampering the good gusts.  I don't have good exposure at my new home unfortunately also.  My peak wind yesterday was 29mph.  I know it was considerably higher than that.  As is always the problem with most weather stations where all the sensors are together, most people will mount the station closer to the ground than the rooftop because of accuracy of the temperature.  For me, personally, the accuracy of my temperature readings outweighs my wind accuracy and I accept that.  My sensor is at 2 meters which is NWS protocol.  Wind measurements are taken at 10 meters.  The only person I've ever known who had a 10 meter tower for the anemometer is @Cashtown_Coop.  

Thanks for mentioning me and the wx station. Yes, mine is mounted at 2 meters also, because, like you, the accuracy of temperatures is more important to me than wind gusts. In a perfect world, I'd have a component station where I could mount the wind sensor on the roof, but the world is not perfect (lol) so I make do as is. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 12z GFS for Thursday night through Friday snow, sleet & freezing rain.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning for the late week Winter storm.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief period of fair and cooler conditions appears likely
Wednesday PM through much of Thursday, as high pressure noses
southward from the Grt Lks, returning temps close to average for
late February.

All guidance tracks another area of low pressure north from the
Gulf Coast late next week. There is significant spread in the
forecast track of this system, but the bulk of current guidance
tracks a primary low west of Pa with secondary coastal development
and a blocking high over New England. This scenario favors a
wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early
Friday.

[paweather]

47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning for the late week Winter storm.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief period of fair and cooler conditions appears likely
Wednesday PM through much of Thursday, as high pressure noses
southward from the Grt Lks, returning temps close to average for
late February.

All guidance tracks another area of low pressure north from the
Gulf Coast late next week. There is significant spread in the
forecast track of this system, but the bulk of current guidance
tracks a primary low west of Pa with secondary coastal development
and a blocking high over New England. This scenario favors a
wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early
Friday.

Don’t make this an overnight event hopefully 

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is typical of home stations. Just never able to site them in a location that gets good exposure for wind, too much surface friction everywhere. The best I’ve seen is my buddy who installed his about six feet above his roof haha, and even with that yesterday was the first 40mph gust he has recorded in the year it has been up. 

I installed an Ambient WS-5000 (the model with the sonic wind sensor) back on Jan 14th and I had been wondering how it was going to do with a decent wind event. I considered mounting it at the highest point of the house on my center chimney that’s not used anymore but decided to high mount it off the shed. 

This pic is looking in a NW direction so I was wondering if it was going to get shielded some by the house. I have a pretty open yard but there is a tree line on one side and houses so I felt this was the best compromise for positioning the station. The highest gust it recorded prior to yesterday was Friday’s wind advisory event which was like 39mph, which I thought was reasonable because I never really had advisory type winds here for that one. Yesterday though, it registered a 42mph wind gust during the snow squall passage and then later in the afternoon a sustained 40mph/63mph gust. So while the siting for wind isn’t completely ideal, it apparently is exposed enough to record bigger gusts. That and I guess I mounted it well enough to withstand at least 63mph winds haha. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I installed an Ambient WS-5000 (the model with the sonic wind sensor) back on Jan 14th and I had been wondering how it was going to do with a decent wind event. I considered mounting it at the highest point of the house on my center chimney that’s not used anymore but decided to high mount it off the shed. 

This pic is looking in a NW direction so I was wondering if it was going to get shielded some by the house. I have a pretty open yard but there is a tree line on one side and houses so I felt this was the best compromise for positioning the station. The highest gust it recorded prior to yesterday was Friday’s wind advisory event which was like 39mph, which I thought was reasonable because I never really had advisory type winds here for that one. Yesterday though, it registered a 42mph wind gust during the snow squall passage and then later in the afternoon a sustained 40mph/63mph gust. So while the siting for wind isn’t completely ideal, it apparently is exposed enough to record bigger gusts. That and I guess I mounted it well enough to withstand at least 63mph winds haha. 

Was there any damage around town?   Going off the Beaufort scale you’re looking at uprooted trees and minor structural damage.    I had around 15 trees blown over at course and I’m estimating 60 to 65 mph gust 

[Bubbler86]

Euro is still mostly a nothing burger for the LSV.  A very slight improvement from 0Z if looking for LSV ice.    Mostly rain or light/borderline too warm frz.  Concentrates the ice storm in Northern PA. 

 

 

[canderson]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Euro is still mostly a nothing burger for the LSV.  A very slight improvement from 0Z if looking for LSV ice.    Mostly rain or light/borderline too warm frz.  Concentrates the ice storm in Northern PA. 

 

 

My guess is we getting most rain and maybe a little sleet. Another stork wheee warm arm rushes in quicker than precip - the tend all season. 
 

[Voyager]

46 minutes ago, paweather said:

Don’t make this an overnight event hopefully 

I hope not, but almost every one this season has been that way. Evening start, daybreak finish. Then, whether white or icy, I have to report for work and run my loads. Boss gives us freedom to choose if it's actively snowing and accumulating, but once it stops, we're expected to run. If it stops mid-day or later, I can stay home as I'm first shift and the day is cooked by then, but if it ends early, I can at least get 2/3 to 3/4 of my loads delivered and have to run.

Since I'm the primary snow shoveler due to my wife's and mother in law's medical conditions, our stuff doesn't get cleaned properly if I have to work.. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Spectacular Sunday! Sunday and 41. Just back from a glorious walk along the river. 

[Bubbler86]

Euro does make up for it, as to tracking, for next weekend.  Parade of storms. 

 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Spectacular Sunday! Sunday and 41. Just back from a glorious walk along the river. 

34 here but still decent in the sun as the wind as calmed down. 

[Bubbler86]

7AM on March 1.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

34 here but still decent in the sun as the wind as calmed down. 

I'm honestly afraid to say this here...I said to my wife when we got back to our car - I kind of wish winter was over. It felt really good out there on the trail.